[Key words of this week]: Shanghai strongly and orderly promotes the resumption of work and production of enterprises, and the demand is expected to be repaired; Mexico nationalized lithium mining; The output of major mines in Australia was flat month on month in the first quarter; Pilbara plans to auction lithium concentrate next week; In March, Myanmar’s rare earth mines were hardly imported;
Market review: the supply and demand of the industrial chain are both weak, and the commodity price has dropped: 1) lithium, the downstream material factory slows down the procurement, the supply side output gradually increases, and the lithium price weakens. This week, the spot price of lithium carbonate in China fell by 2.6%, and the price of lithium concentrate rose by 8.1%; 2) Rare earth: downstream procurement has increased, and the price is at a high level. This week, the quotation of praseodymium and neodymium oxide in China increased by 1.8% to 835000 yuan / ton; In terms of medium and heavy rare earths, the quotation of dysprosium oxide increased by 6.1%, and the quotation of terbium oxide increased by 11.0%; 3) The quotations of cobalt, MB cobalt (standard grade) and MB cobalt (alloy grade) increased by 0.4% and 0.4% month on month respectively; 4) Nickel: the low inventory of the industrial chain continued. Under the short-term capital game, the nickel price fluctuation increased, and LME nickel increased by 2.96% month on month. 5) Stock market: this week, the Shenwan nonferrous metals index fell by 8.08%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.89%. In terms of specific segments, the gold sector fell by 7.06%, the industrial metal sector fell by 7.63%, the lithium sector fell by 8.58%, and the rare earth permanent magnet sector fell by 8.63%.
New energy vehicle industry chain: Shanghai continues to promote the resumption of work and production, and the demand side is expected to gradually usher in repair. On April 16, the Shanghai Economic and Information Technology Commission issued the guidelines for the prevention and control of the epidemic situation of resumption of work and production. The Ministry of industry and information technology set up a “white list” of key enterprises to ensure operation and transfer. The first batch of resumption of work and production includes 666 key enterprises such as automobile manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, integrated circuit, operation support and economic support; However, the new energy industry chain involves many regions of the country, and the demand side may be gradually repaired. Since this week, 70% of 666 key industrial enterprises have resumed work and production.
Lithium: lithium carbonate prices weakened. 1) On the price side, the game between upstream and downstream enterprises intensified. This week, China’s battery grade lithium carbonate decreased by 2.6%, the quotation of battery grade lithium hydroxide decreased by 2.1%, and the price of lithium concentrate increased by 8.1%. Pilbara plans to auction lithium concentrate again next week, and the price of lithium concentrate will accelerate. 2) On the inventory side, the inventory of lithium carbonate increased from 4942 to 5005 tons, an increase of 1.27% month on month; Lithium hydroxide inventory increased by 17.86% month on month from 532 to 627 tons. 3) Overseas resources: Mexico listed lithium as a “strategic mineral” through the lithium nationalization act, declared that the exploration, development and use of lithium is the exclusive right of the state, and prohibited the provision of concessions for the exploitation of lithium to private consortia. Mexico’s lithium resources are 1.7 million tons, accounting for 2%; At present, there are no lithium ore projects in production, which will not affect the short-term supply and demand pattern.
Rare earth permanent magnet: the industry pattern is reshaped, and the price is expected to stop falling and stabilize. 1) On the spot side, with the gradual repair of demand expectations and the increase of inquiry orders at the beginning of this week, the quotation of praseodymium and neodymium oxide in China rose by 1.8% to 835000 yuan / ton; In terms of medium and heavy rare earths, dysprosium oxide rose 6.1% and terbium oxide rose 11.0%. 2) On the supply side, Myanmar is still closed, and the medium and heavy rare earths are mainly consumed inventory. The operating rate of praseodymium and neodymium oxide enterprises has not changed significantly. The weekly output has decreased from 1413 to 1360 tons, down 3.8% month on month. 3) Import of rare earth minerals: due to the epidemic, Myanmar mines were closed again in early January. In March, Myanmar mines imported about 65 tons of REO, of which mixed rare earth carbonate was not imported; The US imported 11447 tons of minerals, an increase of 17% month on month and 6% year on year; 4) On the inventory side, the inventory of praseodymium and neodymium oxide decreased from 3476 to 3450 tons, down 0.70% month on month.
Cobalt: both supply and demand are weak, and the price continues to rise. This week, the quotation of MB cobalt (standard grade) and MB cobalt (alloy grade) increased by 0.4% and 0.4% month on month respectively. Affected by the high price, there is a strong wait-and-see mood in the downstream market of electrolytic cobalt. The high fluctuation of nickel price also has an impact on the demand for ternary materials, and the downstream is dominated by rigid demand procurement; On the supply side, China’s total import of cobalt raw materials in March was 9400 metal tons, with a month on month increase of 45% and a year-on-year increase of 42%. The transportation in South Africa was blocked by the flood, the expected contraction of cobalt intermediate import in June was enhanced, and the cobalt inventory remained at a very low level, showing a situation of weak supply and demand.
Nickel: in the short term, under the capital game, the nickel price fluctuates greatly; In the long run, nickel prices return to fundamentals. Affected by the epidemic situation in China, the import and export of goods is not smooth, and the transaction in the nickel market is poor. LME nickel closed at US $33900 / ton this week, up 2.96% month on month; SHFE nickel income was 238900 yuan / ton, up 4.73%.
Investment suggestion: maintain the “overweight” rating of the industry. The upstream raw materials of new energy, such as rare earth magnetic materials, lithium cobalt copper foil and aluminum foil, have a weak supply and demand situation in a short time due to epidemic, logistics and other factors. Shanghai plans to orderly promote the resumption of work and production of enterprises, and the landscape of the industrial chain may be gradually repaired. The general direction of the medium and long-term three-year boom upward cycle will not change, and the direction of the industrial boom is the most clear. The core standard of the core standard is the following: followingthe following of the following: followingthe following of the following: 002 ” ;, Yantai Zhenghai Magnetic Material Co.Ltd(300224) , Jl Mag Rare-Earth Co.Ltd(300748) , Earth-Panda Advanced Magnetic Material Co.Ltd(688077) , Jiangsu Dingsheng New Material Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603876) , Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) , Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) , etc.
Risk tips: macroeconomic fluctuation, industrial policy change risk, epidemic aggravation risk, new energy vehicle sales less than expected risk, and the premise assumption of supply and demand calculation less than expected risk.
