At the dark moment of the industry, the cash flow pressure of airlines is huge. 1) Operation end: low traffic volume + high oil price, and the operation of the whole industry is at the lowest level since the epidemic; 2) The airline company has huge cash flow pressure. In extreme cases, assuming that all airlines’ planes are parked, it is estimated that the average daily comprehensive expenditure of the three airlines is about 150000, which corresponds to the cash outflow of the whole industry of about 17 billion per month, which is a huge pressure on the cash flow of small airlines.
If the extreme epidemic continues, unlisted private airlines may have large variables, and their operation deserves attention, and HNA department also needs to pay further attention to the progress of its restructuring derivatives. At present, there are 4 unlisted private airlines in China, accounting for 3.0%. The financing channel is relatively single, relatively weak in credit and credit rating, and relatively poor in financing ability; There are 12 HNA departments in total, accounting for 14.6%. There is still great uncertainty in the derivative matters of subsequent reorganization, and the future trend remains to be seen. There may be great variables in the subsequent equity of some local participating airlines.
The civil aviation industry may be brewing a new round of changes, and the next few months may be an important observation window for the industry. 1) In the history of civil aviation, there were two waves of centralized integration: before and after 2002, the airlines directly under the Civil Aviation Administration jointly reorganized to form the three major airlines and after the financial crisis in 200910, a large number of private airlines and local airlines integrated into the three major airlines or went bankrupt; 2) At present, it is impossible to clearly give the follow-up evolution path of the industry. Judging from the attitudes, capabilities and willingness of the current regulators, business operators, potential integrators / acquirers, local governments and other industry participants, the next few months may be an important observation window for the industry.
Industry tracking: 1) road freight: the number of toll stations closed decreased significantly, and the road freight index rebounded significantly from the lowest point. As of April 23, a total of 11 toll stations had been closed, accounting for 0.10%, and 27 service areas had been closed, accounting for 0.41%. Compared with April 10, 667 and 337 toll stations had been closed, down 98.38% and 92.58% respectively. Road freight index: on April 23, the national vehicle freight flow index was 89.63 points, down 1.6% from the previous day, an increase of 27% from the lowest point of about 70 points in early April, with a significant recovery; Since April, the average value has been 83.08, a year-on-year decrease of 26.8%; 2) Aviation: affected by repeated outbreaks and incidents, the number of flights decreased significantly. In April, the volume of the three major flights decreased by 47.6% month on month compared with March, 79.8% lower than the same period in 19 years; 3) Express delivery: in March, the business volume of the whole industry decreased by 3.1%, and the single ticket revenue decreased by 1.1%; 4) Shipping: SCFI fell 0.8% in the week, with an average increase of 69% this year; 5) Air cargo: departure prices in Pudong fell 7.8% week on week.
Market review: this week (2022 / 4 / 182022 / 4 / 24), CSI 300 fell 4.2%, and the transportation sector fell 2.6%, ranking seventh among Shenwan’s 31 primary industries. Among the tertiary sub industries, only the public transport sector rose slightly by 0.1%, while railway transportation and intermediate products and consumer goods supply chain services fell less, with – 0.1% and – 1.1% respectively; Cross border logistics, road freight and warehousing logistics fell the top three, with – 7.4%, – 6.4% and – 5.8% respectively.
Aviation: optimistic about the cyclical elasticity of the aviation sector after the epidemic, pay attention to the industry or brewing a new round of changes. Core logic: the reversal of supply and demand drives the double rise of passenger seat rate and ticket price, and promotes performance elasticity. The direction of epidemic repair is determined and the time point is uncertain. At present, it has gradually entered a new round of layout period. It is suggested to pay attention to Air China Limited(601111) ( Air China Limited(601111) , not rated), private airlines Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) ( Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) , increased holdings), China Express Airlines Co.Ltd(002928) ( China Express Airlines Co.Ltd(002928) , not rated), etc.
Express: we are optimistic about S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) ( S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) , buy) the long-term barriers will be further strengthened and enter the period of strategic layout. In the long run, SF is still the core asset of China’s logistics industry. With the gradual realization of cost control and the gradual operation of Ezhou airport, the company is expected to build new barriers and advantageous positions in the fields of time limited parts, international parts and tob supply chain. The current time point is suitable for the long-term strategic layout. Tongda is the basis of short-term benefit policy, and the single ticket price has improved significantly. We pay attention to Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) ( Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) , not rated) and Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) ( Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) , not rated).
Undervalued high dividend varieties: focus on the expressway sector. The current dividend yield is generally 4-5%, with allocation value. It is suggested to pay attention to Jiangsu Expressway Company Limited(600377) ( Jiangsu Expressway Company Limited(600377) , Unrated) (dividend yield 5%), China Merchants Expressway Network Technology Holdings Co.Ltd(001965) ( China Merchants Expressway Network Technology Holdings Co.Ltd(001965) , Unrated) (5%), etc.
Risk tips
The macro-economy is less than expected, the impact of the epidemic is more than expected, the impact of the air crash is more than expected, the policy is less than expected, and the risk of deviation in the calculation of relevant assumptions
