Core view of this week: the electronics industry index fell by 4.28% this week. Of the 456 targets, 66 rose throughout the week after deducting the suspension targets, 34 rose more than 3 points per week, 22 rose more than 5 points per week, 384 fell throughout the week, 284 fell more than 3 points per week, 177 fell more than 5 points per week, and 45 fell more than 10 points per week.
This week and next week are the intensive release period of the first quarterly report. From the company’s annual report and the first quarterly report that have been disclosed, the performance of most electronic manufacturing companies is not satisfactory, or more or less lower than expected. Among them, the impact of the epidemic throughout the first quarter has borne the brunt, but the follow-up is still weak demand. It is a fait accompli that the consumption of intelligent terminals continues to decline. The demand of the automobile industry also continues to be depressed under the influence of lack of materials and cores, the epidemic and the Russian Ukrainian war. Even for new energy vehicles, the price rises due to the sharp increase in the cost of upstream batteries and materials, and the negative impact of sales or continuing to be lower than the original expectation is inevitable. It is easy to see that the overall delivery and sales of both manufacturing and downstream semiconductors are going down, and the cost is also blocked by epidemic risk control and logistics. A considerable proportion of them have gone up in the past two months, or even delivery difficulties. Under the superposition of multiple environmental difficulties in the periphery, it is difficult to speak of the prosperity of the industry and maintain the “neutral” rating of the industry.
Last week, at the call of the government, SAIC and other large automobile and industrial processing and manufacturing factories gradually began to return to work. However, due to the incomplete length of personnel and suppliers’ materials, the current capacity climb is relatively slow. In East China, Shanghai, Kunshan, Songjiang and other places are sealed and controlled, and the most intuitive impact on the electronic supply chain is the Nb subdivision industry. The normal operation of Guangda, Yingyeda and other processing bases in this region has encountered various difficulties and is difficult to fully carry out.
At present, there is a large shortage of materials in the supply chain, such as hrs-20 connector and PCB component, and there are many direct shortages in the supply chain, such as the sudden shortage of materials in the Yangtze River. On the 20th, Ansenmei, a large automotive IC manufacturer, directly sent a letter to inform customers that its Chinese distribution center was forced to close down due to the epidemic. A similar situation is still in the present continuous tense. The epidemic may only be the beginning. After most front-line manufacturing enterprises start gradually, how to alleviate the logistics problems that are difficult for provinces and cities and customs to get through, including employment, long and short materials, is the real complex knot. The test faced by the supply chain in the second quarter may be more severe than expected.
Key stocks recommended this week and logic: the targets of our key stock pool include: Shenzhen Fluence Technology Plc(300647) , Jilin Oled Material Tech Co.Ltd(688378) , Wingtech Technology Co.Ltd(600745) , Tdg Holding Co.Ltd(600330) .
Risk tips: (1) systemic risk caused by the unexpected decline of the market; (2) Focus on the uncertainty risk of promoting relevant matters of the company.
