Sample range: 2022q1 coal sector public fund position analysis covers the heavy positions of flexible allocation funds, partial stock hybrid funds, partial debt hybrid funds, balanced hybrid funds and common stock funds.
The market value and proportion of coal positions in 2022q1 increased month on month. According to our statistics, as of 2022q1, the total market value of coal shares held by public funds was RMB 27.684 billion, an increase of 209.33% over RMB 8.95 billion in 2021q4. In terms of proportion, the total market value of coal stocks held by 2022q1 public funds accounted for about 1.1% of the total stock market value held by the funds, an increase of 0.8 percentage points compared with 0.3% in 2021q4.
Chips focused on the power coal leader, and the position of coking coal rose. The top three targets of 22q1 positions are China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Yankuang energy, accounting for 29.6%, 23.4% and 18.1% of the market value of coal positions respectively. The total proportion of the three targets exceeds 70% of the market value of coal positions. Compared with 2021q4, the proportion of China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) positions decreased by 2.2 percentage points, the proportion of Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) positions increased by 3.1 percentage points, and the proportion of Yankuang energy decreased by 5.4 percentage points. In addition to the leading targets of thermal coal with stable positions, the positions of 22q1 coking coal related targets increased rapidly. Among the top 10 heavy position stocks, the market value of coking coal targets accounted for 18.2% of the market value of coal positions, and the related targets were Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) (accounting for 7.25%), Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) (accounting for 5.32%), Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) (accounting for 3%) and Shanxi Lu’An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) (accounting for 2.6%). High flexibility power coal companies also gained some favor in 22q1, Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) (accounting for 2.7%), Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) (accounting for 2.6%), Shanxi Lanhua Sci-Tech Venture Co.Ltd(600123) (accounting for 1.2%) ranked seventh, ninth and tenth among the top ten heavyweight stocks respectively.
The demand for thermal coal is in the “dark moment” and is expected to rise in the future. At present, the consumption of power coal has entered the off-season. At the same time, under the influence of the epidemic, the downstream power load is not high, and some generator units are overhauled, so the short-term demand is weak. At present, the demand side is the most off-season of the year. In addition to the impact of the epidemic, the demand has faced a “dark moment”. After the production increase and supply guarantee in 2021q4, the output basically reached the limit in the fourth quarter of 2021. Due to the limited new capacity, the potential for continued production increase is very small. At the same time, the import volume continues to decline, and the total supply is expected to decline month on month. As the epidemic situation is concentrated, the demand is expected to be effectively controlled in the later stage. In terms of coking coal, currently affected by the epidemic, the commencement of steel mills is weak, and the trans provincial transportation of coal is limited. However, in the later stage, with the effective control of the epidemic, the commencement of steel mills is expected to rise rapidly stimulated by real estate, i.e. infrastructure investment, so as to stimulate the demand for coking coal.
Investment suggestion: after the epidemic situation is stable, the price of thermal coal is expected to rise. It is suggested to pay attention to Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) , Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) , China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) . Coking coal sector is expected to benefit from the demand growth driven by real estate and infrastructure investment. It is recommended to Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) .
Risk tip: the risk of economic slowdown; Risk of sharp decline in coal prices; Risk of policy change.
