This week’s special topic: the epidemic disturbance, the zero growth rate of society in March is under pressure, and it is optimistic about the subsequent rebound. The epidemic repeatedly suppressed terminal consumption, and the zero growth rate of social security in the first quarter further declined. In March 2022, the total amount of social zero in China was 3.42 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 3.5%. In the first quarter, China’s social zero totaled 10.87 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 3.3%. Among them, the retail sales of furniture in March was 12.55 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 8.8%; The sales volume of building materials home stores was 107383 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 38.60%; The retail sales of cultural office supplies reached 35.560 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 9.78%; The retail sales of gold, silver and jewelry reached 20.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 17.9%; Clothing consumption was seriously affected by the epidemic. In March 2022, China’s clothing retail sales reached 96.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 12.70%.
Investment strategy in 2022: seek “progress” in “change” and take the lead in subdividing leaders. Furniture: focus on domestic market channel reform opportunities. Among them, it is suggested to pay attention to Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) , Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) , Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) , Goldenhome Living Co.Ltd(603180) ; It is suggested to pay attention to Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) , Qumei Home Furnishings Group Co.Ltd(603818) etc. in the finished furniture sector. Papermaking, packaging and printing: subdivide the track pattern and optimize the strong. It is suggested to pay attention to Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) , Shanying International Holdings Co.Ltd(600567) , Xianhe Co.Ltd(603733) , Quzhou Wuzhou Special Paper Co.Ltd(605007) , Chongqing Baiya Sanitary Products Co.Ltd(003006) , Hangzhou Haoyue Personal Care Co.Ltd(605009) , etc. Entertainment and jewelry sector: the consumption upgrading continues and the prosperity rises. It is suggested to pay attention to Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc(603899) and Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) etc. Retail of home building materials: professional home building materials stores are still dominant, and digital and high-frequency consumption empowerment have become the mainstream. It is suggested to pay attention to Easyhome New Retail Group Corporation Limited(000785) , Red Star Macalline Group Corporation Ltd(601828) , which are leading in digital transformation. Textile and clothing: the trend of national fashion continues, and there are good opportunities for sports shoes and children’s wear. It is suggested to pay attention to Anta sports, Huali Industrial Group Company Limited(300979) , Zhejiang Semir Garment Co.Ltd(002563) , Winner Medical Co.Ltd(300888) , Bosideng, etc.
This week’s market review: this week, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 3.87%, and the light manufacturing industry fell 4.4%, slightly underperforming the market. The textile and garment industry rose 4.09% this week, significantly outperforming the market. Among them, the paper sector fell 5.25%, the packaging and printing sector fell 5.05%, the home sector fell 4.27%, the entertainment light industry sector fell 2.83%, and other light industry sectors fell 2.16%. The top three gainers of light manufacturing industry this week are Anhui Genuine New Materials Co.Ltd(603429) (23.82%), Yotrio Group Co.Ltd(002489) (15.38%), Shandong Huapeng Glass Co.Ltd(603021) (10.09%); The top three declines were Shenzhen Jinjia Group Co.Ltd(002191) (- 21.55%), Mcc Meili Cloud Computing Industry Investment Co.Ltd(000815) (- 19.97%), Red Star Macalline Group Corporation Ltd(601828) (- 17.72%). The top three gainers of textile and garment industry are Anhui Korrun Co.Ltd(300577) (28.34%), Shanghai Sanmao Enterprise (Group) Co.Ltd(600689) (26.08%), Jiangsu Hanvo Safety Product Co.Ltd(300952) (24.67%); The top three declines were Xinjiang La Chapelle Fashion Co.Ltd(603157) (- 32.38%), Shangying Global Co.Ltd(600146) (- 19.79%), Modern Avenue Group Co.Ltd(002656) (- 17.42%).
One week key data tracking: the price of dissolved pulp in this week is 8200 yuan / ton, unchanged from last week. This week’s natural color pulp Jinxing (Chile) / bleached coniferous pulp: Yinxing (Chile) increased by + 3% / + 2% to US $910 / 1010 / ton respectively compared with last week, and the quotations of other external wood pulp were flat compared with last week. The prices of all kinds of finished paper were flat compared with last week. The number of commercial housing transactions in 30 large and medium-sized cities this week was 17141, up 17% from last week; This week, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities was 1.83 million square meters, up 24% from last week. This week, China’s cotton price index: 328 was 22525 yuan / ton, down 29 yuan / ton from last week; Cotlook: a index: 1% tariff was 24433 yuan / ton, down 527 yuan / ton from last week; The price difference between Chinese and foreign cotton was – 1908 yuan / ton, an increase of 498 yuan / ton compared with last week; The closing price of cotton futures on the Zheng stock exchange this week was 21690 yuan / ton, up 95 yuan / ton from last week; The closing price of cotton futures on the New York Stock Exchange was 140.20 cents / pound, down 1.97 cents / pound from last week.
Risk warning: the price of raw materials fluctuates sharply; Risk of sluggish terminal demand; Exchange rate fluctuation risk.
