The overall market fell, with the semiconductor index down 4.98%
This week (2022 / 04 / 182022 / 04 / 22), the market fell as a whole. The CSI 300 index fell 4.19% and the semiconductor index fell 4.98%. Among them: semiconductor design – 5.7%, semiconductor manufacturing – 3.8%, semiconductor packaging – 4.2%, semiconductor materials – 2.6%, semiconductor equipment – 5.3%, power semiconductor – 3%.
Industry news
1) the shortage of silicon wafers may continue until 2024, accounting for 35% of the market share of semiconductor materials
According to techset, the silicon wafer market, including SOI wafers, will grow by more than 10% in 2022, reaching US $15.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.8%, which will be the first time in more than a decade that the silicon wafer market has achieved double-digit growth for two consecutive years. At present, major wafer suppliers such as Xinyue semiconductor, sumco, globalwafers, silonic and SK silon have all stated that they will build new production capacity. However, it is expected that the completion of plant construction and commissioning will be around 2024. Before that, the tension between supply and demand is difficult to ease, and prices are under further pressure.
According to semi data, the silicon wafer market accounted for 35% of the semiconductor material market in 2020, ranking first in semiconductor materials. Previously, due to strong terminal demand, taishengke and Hejing issued a price increase notice, with an increase of at least 10%, and some products of Hejing rose by 30%. By the end of 2021, 19 high-capacity chip manufacturing lines in the world have entered the construction period, and another 10 chip manufacturing lines will start construction in 2022. As the monthly production capacity of a chip manufacturing line usually jumps from 30000 to 50000, the consumption of semiconductor silicon chips has also increased sharply. However, under the background of limited market supply and no time to open new production capacity, the semiconductor silicon chip industry is ushering in a new round of market opportunities in which supply exceeds demand.
2) many enterprises on the scientific innovation board are listed on the “white list”, the core link is closed-loop operation, and they have experience in resumption of work and production
Recently, the Ministry of industry and information technology announced that it would study and establish an emergency coordination mechanism for the demands of the industrial chain supply chain, establish a “white list” of key enterprises in the field of industry and information technology, and concentrate resources to give priority to the resumption of work and production of 666 key enterprises in key industries such as integrated circuit, automobile manufacturing, equipment manufacturing and biomedicine.
The first financial reporter learned exclusively that Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc.China(688012) , shengmei Shanghai, Anji Microelectronics Technology (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(688019) , Tianyue advanced, National Silicon Industry Group Co.Ltd(688126) , Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) and Shanghai Medicilon Inc(688202) are all on the “white list”. Most of these enterprises have carried out closed-loop operation management in the core links during the closure period, so as to ensure the continuous operation in key areas. At present, the above-mentioned companies have formulated plans for the resumption of work and production, such as carrying out the touch and arrangement of employees with conditions for resumption of production, making preparations before entering the factory in combination with policies, strengthening the excavation and material preparation, conducting closed-loop management of employees in strict accordance with the requirements of epidemic prevention and control, connecting and communicating the relevant links of construction material transportation, so as to ensure the quality and quantity of various orders of customers and on-time delivery to the greatest extent.
Plate tracking
1) MCU: there is differentiation in the MCU sector this week: (1) Sino Wealth Electronic Ltd(300327) increased by 7%, mainly due to the release of 22q1 performance, the superposition of the impact of the epidemic and the increase of R & D investment, the performance is still strong and positive month on month growth, which is above the median of the revised forecast interval. (2) Nations Technologies Inc(300077) decreased by 13%, mainly due to its release of 22q1 performance, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 25 million yuan and a loss in the same period last year, with a chain comparison of – 80%; Deduct non net profit of 23 million yuan, a loss in the same period last year, a month on month decrease of – 47%. In addition, Chipsea Technologies (Shenzhen) Corp.Ltd(688595) fell by 7%, while Espressif Systems (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(688018) , Gigadevice Semiconductor (Beijing) Inc(603986) fell by less than 2%. We believe that the MCU sector has continued to fluctuate since February, mainly because the market is worried about the prosperity of MCU. The strong growth of Gigadevice Semiconductor (Beijing) Inc(603986) q1 performance once again highlights the strong competitiveness of the company’s business. We continue to be optimistic about the leader, and continue to achieve high performance growth through product structure adjustment + localization.
2) simulation: the simulation sector generally fell this week, and only Xidi rose slightly by 3%. Among them, LED driven related targets continued to decline, with Fine Made Microelectronics Group Co.Ltd(300671) , Shenzhen Sunmoon Microelectronics Co.Ltd(688699) , Shanghai Bright Power Semiconductor Co.Ltd(688368) respectively falling by 15% / 12% / 4%, and other targets falling by 0% ~ 4%. We believe that the recent decline in the simulation sector is mainly due to the market’s concern that the loosening of downstream prosperity and the release of production capacity of large overseas factories from 22h2 may squeeze the mainland manufacturers’ market. According to the survey on the delivery cycle and industrial chain of large overseas manufacturers we tracked, at present, the prosperity of some medium and low-end consumer fields is loose, but the prosperity of other fields is still maintained, and the delivery cycle of large overseas manufacturers is still the same as that of 22q1. We continue to believe that in the cycle of structural boom decline, mainland leaders can still rely on the first mover advantage to continue to carry out domestic substitution, and have the opportunity to strive for more production capacity when the production capacity side is loose, with stronger ability to cross the cycle. This week, a number of simulation companies released 22q1 results, among which Sg Micro Corp(300661) bucked the trend and achieved positive growth in Q1 month on month, which just verified the strong and cycle crossing ability of leading companies.
3) storage: storage: storage: storage: the storage sector fell in the week as a whole, with the whole of the storage sector falling this week, in which Puya Semiconductor (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(688766) down 1.81%.
4) silicon wafer: this week, the semiconductor silicon material sector continued to decline, and the decline narrowed, including National Silicon Industry Group Co.Ltd(688126) -u down 2.67%, Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) down 4.06%, Hangzhou Lion Electronics Co.Ltd(605358) down 2.58%, Phenix Optical Company Limited(600071) down 1.20%, and Thinkon Semiconductor Jinzhou Corp(688233) down 1.20%.Up 1.47% and Zhejiang Mtcn Technology Co.Ltd(003026) down 0.47%. Affected by the overall market environment and the epidemic situation, the silicon wafer sector fell for several weeks, and the current valuation level has reached a relatively low level. At present, due to the decline of the semiconductor chip manufacturing industry, the performance of most of the domestic semiconductor chip manufacturers will continue to decline. As a result, the semiconductor chip manufacturing industry will continue to be in a high-speed development cycle. At present, most of us are in a closed state due to the decline of the semiconductor chip manufacturing industry.
5) photoresist: the photoresist sector fell as a whole this week, including Jiangsu Nata Opto-Electronic Material Co.Ltd(300346) down 12.21%, Red Avenue New Materials Group Co.Ltd(603650) down 12.14%, Jiangsu Yoke Technology Co.Ltd(002409) down 10.28%, Crystal Clear Electronic Material Co.Ltd(300655) down 6.80%, Shanghai Sinyang Semiconductor Materials Co.Ltd(300236) down 2.69%, Hmt(Xiamen)New Technical Materials Co.Ltd(603306) up 2.11%. The financial Associated Press reporter learned from Shanghai Sinyang Semiconductor Materials Co.Ltd(300236) that the supply chain logistics situation has eased this week. With the promotion of the policy level, the pace of resumption of work and production of Shanghai industrial chain is expected to accelerate, and the uncertainties in the early sector are expected to be lifted. He is still optimistic about the high prosperity under the tension of supply and demand combined with the trend of domestic substitution.
6) equipment: this week, the equipment sector fluctuated, with the overall sector falling by 7%. Shengmei Shanghai continued its rise last week, rising 3.4% that week, and tuojing technology went public this week, up 6.3% Kingsemi Co.Ltd(688037) 418 issued the equity distribution plan for 2021, which planned to pay a cash dividend of 0.3 yuan per share, and the company’s share price fell 13.3% that week Beijing Huafeng Test & Control Technology Co.Ltd(688200) 4 / 18 the quarterly report of 22q1 was released, and the net profit attributable to the parent company in a single quarter was 122 million yuan. Combined with the previous announcement that the net profit of 105 million yuan returned to the parent company from January to February, the performance intensity slowed down month on month in March, and the company’s share price fell 12% that week. The share prices of other equipment companies fell in the range of 3% – 4% that week. According to the report recently released by semi, China will become the largest market for semiconductor equipment in 2021, with sales of US $29.6 billion, accounting for 41.6% of the world. From the whole year of 2022, semiconductor equipment is still in the large-scale capital expenditure cycle of downstream wafer factories. According to Nikkei Asia, it is expected that China’s chip production capacity will account for 1 / 5 of the global total production capacity in 2022, and the delivery time of equipment will be prolonged again and again. In view of the continuous breakthroughs of many domestic manufacturers in many key equipment and processes, the domestic equipment sector will usher in a double benefit situation of market expansion and share improvement.
7) power: this week, the power sector continued its decline last week, and the windigbt index fell 4.7%. The leading power downstream inverter Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) released its 2021 annual report and the first quarterly report of 2022 that week. The performance was lower than expected, driving the photovoltaic inverter index to fall by 7.3% that week, and also dragging down the trend of the power sector. However, compared with the previous weeks, the drag on the subject of upstream photovoltaic IGBT has weakened. Manufacturers such as Yangzhou Yangjie Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(300373) , Starpower Semiconductor Ltd(603290) , Wuxi Nce Power Co.Ltd(605111) and others fell by less than 4%, while Hangzhou Silan Microelectronics Co.Ltd(600460) closed up 3.4% in the week with the better than expected Q1 performance forecast. Throughout the year, the localization demand of domestic inverter leaders is still strong. For example, Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) said in the investor exchange on April 19 that the company expects the inverter shipment to improve and the annual target remains unchanged. In the current chip shortage period, the company’s strategy is to sign a long order and replace it with domestic products. In terms of new energy vehicles, the Chinese market remained strong in March. According to the data of the passenger Federation, the wholesale sales volume reached 455000 vehicles in a single month, an increase of 122.4% year-on-year. Therefore, on the whole, with the expectation that the demand for downstream photovoltaic and new energy vehicles is still rising, we are optimistic about the accelerating trend of domestic substitution of Companies in the power track in 2022.
Important announcement
1) Sg Micro Corp(300661) : the performance of 21 years is at the median value of performance forecast, and the total profit of Q1 is + 22% month on month
1) fy21: the company achieved a revenue of 2.2 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 87%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 699 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 143%, which was above the performance forecast range; Deduct 649 million yuan from non parent company, with a year-on-year increase of + 145%, which is in the performance forecast range.
2) 21q4: the revenue was 703 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 111%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 248 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 204% and a month on month increase of + 30%; Deduct 236 million yuan of non return to parent, with a year-on-year increase of + 292% and a month on month increase of + 27%.
3) 22q1: revenue of 775 million yuan, up + 97% year on year and + 10% month on month. The gross profit margin was 61%, with a year-on-year increase of + 12.8pct and a month on month increase of + 3.5pct. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 260 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 245% and a month on month increase of + 5%; Deduct 247 million yuan of non return to parent, with a year-on-year increase of + 242% and a month on month increase of + 5%. When the gross profit margin increased month on month, the growth rate of net profit attributable to parent company and deduction of non attributable to parent company was lower than that of revenue, which was mainly due to (1) the income tax expense in this period increased significantly compared with that in the previous period (from – 2.95 million in the previous period to 34.57 million in the current period). After adding back the income tax, the total profit was + 22% month on month. (2) The investment income of the joint venture company (mainly the investment income of Yutai) is 17.25 million yuan and that of 22q4 is 43.33 million yuan. Excluding this impact, the total profit is + 39% month on month. We believe that the continuous growth of revenue and the improvement of gross profit margin show the leading ability to cross the cycle.
2) Yangzhou Yangjie Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(300373) : the company released its 2021 annual report. In 2021, the company achieved revenue of 4.4 billion yuan, yoy + 68%, net profit attributable to parent company of 768 million yuan, yoy + 103%, net profit deducted from non attributable to parent company of 708 million yuan, yoy + 92% – profit indicators exceeded the previous performance forecast. 21q4 company achieved revenue of 1.16 billion yuan, yoy + 49%, qoq-0.5%, net profit attributable to parent company of 200 million yuan, yoy + 76%, qoq-7.7%, deducting net profit attributable to non parent company of 170 million yuan, yoy + 52%, qoq-17%. The company has accrued 17.95 million yuan of equity incentive expenses in Q4. If this factor is excluded, the net profit attributable to the parent company in Q4 is 221 million yuan, which is slightly higher than that in 21q3. In addition, considering that Q4 company usually generates large-scale management expenses, the company’s 21q4 operating performance exceeds market expectations and shows good growth.
Investment suggestions: continuing to recommend a series of recommendations for the investment recommendations: the continued recommendation of the ‘ Will Semiconductor Co.Ltd.Shanghai(603501) 35.
Risk tips: the demand is less than expected, the constraints of capacity bottlenecks, the technological progress of mainland manufacturers is less than expected, the Sino US trade friction is intensified, and the information used in the research report is not updated in time.
