Zhou view: the continuous decline of real estate in the first quarter and the repeated epidemic since March, combined with the rise of raw fuel prices, put pressure on the overall performance of Q1 real estate chain. Under the pressure of the economy, the expectation of steady growth has increased. As an important part of steady growth, the real estate chain and infrastructure chain continue to relax the marginal policy, which is good for the “foundation” chain. We believe that with the disclosure of the first quarterly report approaching the end and the low point of the industry may be in the past, at present, many places gradually loosen the regulation of real estate, improve the transmission from policy expectation to actual demand, and the inflection point of real estate fundamentals is gradually approaching, The trend of real estate from low to high may gradually appear, and the real estate chain will gradually benefit from real estate β Upward; In addition, infrastructure investment remained resilient and continued to improve. It is suggested that Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) and Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) should be preferred after the first quarterly report, and the diversified development of leaders is more promising α Advantages, the industry stabilizes and takes the lead in rebounding; Secondly, focus on the leader Jade Bird Fire Co.Ltd(002960) , which provides one-stop fire service. The logic of expanding categories and increasing market share of the company is similar to that of Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) in 2019. Industrial fire protection can raise the valuation ceiling in the future. At the same time, we have just released the in-depth report of Zhongfu Shenying, a carbon fiber leader, and are optimistic about its long-term growth.
Consumer building materials: the turning point of real estate is approaching, and the real estate chain will benefit the industry β Up. In the context of the increasing downward pressure on the economy, the RRR reduction will further help stabilize growth, and the expectation of real estate policy relaxation will increase. It coincides with the recent substantial relaxation of real estate regulation in many places, and the real estate fundamentals are expected to reach the bottom and stabilize rapidly; The negative credit impairment of consumer building materials worried by the market in the early stage will also be gradually implemented with the disclosure of the annual report. The trend of increasing the concentration of consumer building materials leaders is determined, and the growth is still stable. The rise of short-term raw materials has brought some pressure on the gross profit margin. However, enterprises actively transmit cost pressure through price increase and raw material reserves, and the gross profit margin is expected to gradually improve in the second half of the year. Waterproof materials that run through the construction cycle and are catalyzed by industry standards are preferred (pay attention to Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) ); The second is the pipe faucet ( Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) ), the ceramic tile faucet ( Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) ), and the gypsum board ( Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) ) benefiting from the completion cycle.
Cement: wait for the release of cement demand after the epidemic situation is alleviated. In March, the cement output was 187 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.6%, which was mainly affected by the epidemic, the construction of “foundation” projects in various places was limited, and the demand recovery was less than expected. The epidemic situation in many places in the short term is still repeated, and the shipment rate in many places fell by 20-30% year-on-year. We believe that the short-term epidemic disturbance will not change, the demand will gradually increase, and the demand will be delayed but will not be absent. The central bank will reduce the reserve requirement by 0.25 percentage points again to support the recovery of the real economy. In the first quarter, the issuance of local special bonds was 1.33 trillion, an increase of 1.09 trillion year-on-year. The pre issuance of local special bonds helped stabilize growth. The state actively promoted the investment in 102 major infrastructure projects to achieve more matching and rapid implementation of funds and projects, At the same time, due to urban policies, real estate has been substantially relaxed in many places, and real estate demand is expected to hit the bottom and rebound; The real estate and infrastructure chain is still an important part of stabilizing the economy. With the marginal improvement of the epidemic, the subsequent demand is expected to further recover, the cement price will continue to rise, and the cement sector with undervalued value and high dividend will still benefit the most. It is suggested to pay attention to the faucet Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) and the elastic subject Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) .
Glass: inventories continue to rise and demand recovers slowly. We estimate that the growth rate of apparent demand for glass in March was – 17.7%, mainly due to repeated epidemics in many places, tighter logistics control, less than expected demand recovery, rising enterprise inventories and weak prices since March. We believe that the biggest variable of current demand is the epidemic situation. With the continuous relaxation of local governments’ real estate policies, the effect of urban implementation of real estate policies may gradually appear. The orders postponed since the second half of last year may usher in a centralized release, which is optimistic about a new round of simultaneous rise in volume and price of glass after the improvement of the epidemic situation. From a macro perspective, the demand for real estate completion remains resilient, with a real estate sales area of more than 1.7 billion square meters in 18-21 years. With the arrival of the housing delivery cycle and the background of guaranteed housing delivery, new construction accelerates the transmission of support demand to completion; At the same time, the industrial chain extension of leading enterprises is gradually emerging, the proportion of growth businesses is gradually increasing, and the periodic fluctuation is gradually smoothed (it is recommended to pay attention to Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) , Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) , Xinyi Glass).
Glass fiber: roving prices remain high and stable, and electronic yarn prices continue to fall. At present, the inventory of roving industry continues to run at a low level, the price remains stable at a high level, and the profitability of enterprises is good; The price of electronic yarn continues to decline, the mainstream quotation of electronic yarn G75 falls to the range of 85009000 yuan / ton, the mainstream quotation of electronic cloth price drops to about 3.2-3.5 yuan / meter, and the electronic yarn is weak. We believe that roving demand remains strong, and the rapid growth of new energy vehicles supports the strong demand for thermoplastic yarn in 2022; The installed capacity of wind power will gradually pick up in 2022, and the installed capacity of wind power in the 14th five year plan may exceed the expectation again, so as to stimulate the demand of upstream and downstream industrial chains and the demand for high-end products of the industry; According to the tracked industrial production expansion plan, the new supply in 2022 is limited, the supply and demand of the industry remain matched, and the high outlook of the industry may continue or exceed expectations; The price of electronic yarn drops rapidly or further squeezes the living space of small and medium-sized enterprises to curb the disorderly expansion of enterprises. The cost advantage of leading enterprises is obvious, and the capacity expansion realizes the advantage of supplementing the price with quantity. (it is suggested to pay attention to China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) , Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials Co.Ltd(300196) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) ).
Risk warning: the investment in fixed assets is lower than expected; The aggravation of trade conflict leads to the obstruction of sales volume of export enterprises; The margin of environmental protection supervision is relaxed, and the supply contraction is lower than expected; The sharp rise in the price of raw materials has brought cost pressure.
