Key investment points
Weekly view:
The central bank and the safe put forward differentiated credit policies: on April 18, the central bank and the safe issued a notice requiring to adhere to the positioning of “housing, housing and non speculation”, implement differentiated housing credit policies due to urban policies, and reasonably determine the minimum down payment ratio and minimum loan interest rate requirements of individual housing loans. Financial institutions should maintain the steady and orderly release of real estate development loans, and commercial banks and financial asset management companies should do a good job in M & a financial services for key real estate enterprise risk disposal projects.
We believe that the 23 measures are conducive to promoting the steady and healthy development of the real estate industry from both supply and demand. On the consumer side, under the differentiated credit policy, all regions can relax loan restrictions due to urban policies, and reverse consumers’ purchase expectations by reducing the down payment ratio or mortgage interest rate. On the enterprise side, the support of development loans helps to alleviate the liquidity pressure of real estate enterprises and improve the enthusiasm of enterprises to obtain land, so as to increase the effective supply of the market.
The two places completed the first batch of centralized land supply: 1) on April 22, 14 of the 20 plots in the first round of centralized land supply in Nanjing were sold, of which 8 were sold at the base price and 3 hit the top; 2) On April 20, the first round of centralized land supply in Ningbo sold all 33 plots, and 8 plots were sold at a premium, of which 5 were capped, with an overall premium rate of 5.9%. Nanjing and Ningbo soil auction both show the phenomenon of hot and cold differentiation, and the plots with de chemical and guaranteed profits are hot in the core area; Some plots with poor location in Nanjing were sold without registration of real estate enterprises. We believe that under the background of continuous downturn in sales, improving the quality of land supply and increasing the effective supply of high-quality areas are the key to improving the land acquisition enthusiasm of real estate enterprises. We believe that there has been no substantial improvement in the current total data, and the regulation policy is still dominated by a loose rhythm. At the same time, the marginal improvement of the operation quality and sales scale of some high-quality enterprises is obvious. Under this environment, we continue to recommend three main lines: 1) the dilemma reversal enterprise that makes the most of the bad in the early stage and benefits from the optimization of the centralized land supply policy: Vanke A; 2) Leading real estate enterprises under the continuous improvement of competition pattern: Green City China, Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) ; 3) High rated steady operation private enterprises: Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) , Xuhui holding group.
Industry tracking
Sales review (04.16-04.22): 33 key monitoring cities, with a total transaction area of 2.451 million square meters, an increase of 7.9% over last week; In 2022, a total of 47.286 million square meters were sold, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 44.1%. Among them, 401000 square meters were sold in first tier cities, an increase of 36.5% over the previous week. In 2022, a total of 8.812 million square meters were sold, a total decrease of 36.5% year-on-year; Second tier cities sold 1411000 square meters, an increase of 5% over the previous week. In 2022, a total of 23741000 square meters were sold, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 32.7%; The volume of transactions in the third tier cities was 640000 square meters, an increase of 0.9% over last week. In 2022, the cumulative volume of transactions was 14.732 million square meters, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 58.5%.
Land supply (04.11-04.17): the planned construction area of Baicheng land homestead supply is 5.87 million m2. In 2022, the cumulative supply of planned construction area is 121.22 million m2, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 54.6% and a supply-demand ratio of 1.43. In terms of land listing price, the average listing floor price of land supplied by Baicheng was 3760 yuan / ㎡, and the average listing price in recent four weeks was 7635 yuan / ㎡, a month on month decrease of 1.2% and a year-on-year increase of 8.6%.
Land transaction (04.11-04.17): the planned construction area of residential land in Baicheng is 4.19 million m3, with a cumulative transaction of 84.79 million m2 in 2022, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 58.7%. In terms of land transaction floor price and premium rate, the average transaction floor price of residential land in Baicheng was 3388 yuan / m2, an increase of 47.6% month on month, a year-on-year decrease of 15.2%, and the overall premium rate was 3.6%. In 2022, the average floor price was 4351 yuan / m2, a year-on-year decrease of 5.5%, and the premium rate was 3.6%, a decrease of 15.4 percentage points compared with the same period last year.
Risk warning event: the financing environment is tighter than expected; The regulatory policy was tightened more than expected.
