Description of target pool selection: Based on the constituent stocks of CITIC defense military industry index, we exclude some stocks with low correlation between main business and core equipment ( Shaanxi Aerospace Power Hi-Tech Co.Ltd(600343) etc.), and add 34 stocks highly related to military industry (such as Unigroup Guoxin Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002049) , Baoji Titanium Industry Co.Ltd(600456) , Western Metal Materials Co.Ltd(002149) , Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) , etc.), so as to finally form the pool of core targets of defense military industry.
Description of Fund Classification: the selection method of active fund in this model is wind open-end fund + closed-end fund - stock fund (common stock type) + mixed fund (partial stock mixed type + flexible allocation type); The selection method of passive fund is wind open-end fund + closed-end fund - stock fund (passive index type + enhanced index type) + hybrid fund (balanced hybrid type + partial debt hybrid type); The data of equity fund holdings can be obtained by adding the active and passive funds.
The institutional position preference continued to maintain a high level (2.33% over allocation), the historical quantile value of PE was 11.13%, and the industry was in the area of high cost performance: in the first quarter of 2022, the proportion of fund positions fluctuated due to factors such as changes in market style and lower than expected performance of some enterprises, but remained at the high level of institutional preference. According to wind data, the proportion of shares held by the military industry sector of 2022q1 active fund in the total market value of active fund was 4.74%, down 0.5 percentage points from 2021q4; The over allocation ratio was 2.33%, down 0.5 percentage points from 2021q4. Meanwhile, active + passive fund 22q1 holds a total market value of 140771 billion yuan in the military industry sector, accounting for 4.50% of the total holdings of the fund, and the over allocation ratio is 2.09%.
We believe that 2022q1 institutions in the military industry sector continue to maintain an over allocation ratio of 2%, thanks to the high prosperity of enterprise fundamentals in the medium and long term, and have advantages corresponding to the current economic and international situation under the characteristics of planned economy. The core of the industry chain is the core of the industry chain (e.g. titanium alloy - 6881 Western Superconducting Technologies Co.Ltd(688122) () it has entered the stage where the quantile value of 5% of the historical valuation since 2016 is less than the current historical quantile value of PE in the military industry sector (since 2016) is only 11.13%. Under the overestimated value and cost performance, it is expected that the sector will continue to be a highly preferred sector of institutions.
What's the choice of subject matter: choice of choice: options for fund placements: options for fund placeplacements -- long-term growth value targets are favored, and investment is closely following the change in the boom. At a stock level level, the 10 stocks with the highest proportion of shares held by 2022q1 initiative funds in 2022q1'2022q1. The top 10 of the 2022q1 initiative funds in 2022q1 with the highest shareholding ratio (based on the total market capitalization caliber) are Hongda Xingye Co.Ltd(002002) Unigroup Guoxin Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002049) , Hubei Feilihua Quartz Glass Co.Ltd(300395) , Tianjin 712 Communication & Broadcasting Co.Ltd(603712) , Fujian Torch Electron Technology Co.Ltd(603678) . There is an active fund with funds flowing in (and the warehouse is where there is an active fund. There is an inflow of funds. The first 10 of the top 10 companies that are among the top 10 of the active funds. The first 10 of the top 10 of the list of companies that are ' Avic Heavy Machinery Co.Ltd(600765) , Wuxi Paike New Materials Technology Co.Ltd(605123) . The heavy warehouse company focuses on the subdivided leaders of the high boom track in the middle and upper reaches and the representative strategic main engine factory of the industry. The extra warehouse company focuses on the inflection point enterprises and the enterprises expected to be established in the aviation launch / missile track.
Investment suggestion: we believe that the military industry sector will continue to be the preferred sector of institutional allocation under the background of high landscape (over allocation represents preference), Although the performance of a few central enterprises is lower than expected due to the impact of "steady growth" and "equity incentive", the sector may have digested the impact through adjustment (e.g. Avic Electromechanical Systems Co.Ltd(002013) etc. return to the bottom area of the five-year historical valuation 10% quantile value again), it is expected that the "performance release concern" will be repaired in the first quarterly report sector, and the sector will enter the high cost-effective allocation area of undervalued value (historical 11.13% quantile value).
Industry logic focuses on military 2022
(1) under the characteristics of planned economy, the military industry has strong comparative advantages: strong demand rigidity, predictable, and little impact of the epidemic (strategic production type industry).
(2) new models are intensively entering the pre production stage of batch production, and enterprises in all links of the industrial chain have the possibility of performance exceeding expectations and the extension of the duration of medium and high-speed growth;
(3) the military industry is a kind of crossing varieties in the economic cycle, which has the advantage of fundamental anti risk;
(4) China's state-owned assets reform or entering the deep-water area is expected to carry out market-oriented mechanism reform in fields other than the general assembly of non strategic weapons (excluding state-owned enterprises of strategic resources).
(5) medium term renewal of mature models (expected establishment of longer growth period).
(6) continuous deepening of industrial chain cooperation (horizontal and vertical expansion of new business of middle and upper reaches enterprises)
It is recommended to pay attention to the following related stock targets:
1. With high sustainability and high vision, aeroengine industry chain: Avic Heavy Machinery Co.Ltd(600765) , Western Superconducting Technologies Co.Ltd(688122) , Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co.Ltd(688239) , Aecc Aviation Power Co Ltd(600893) , Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) , Wuxi Paike New Materials Technology Co.Ltd(605123) , Baoji Titanium Industry Co.Ltd(600456) , etc;
2. New military products market stocks appearing in the second growth curve: Chengdu Ald Aviation Manufacturing Corporation(300696) , China Zhenhua (Group) Science & Technology Co.Ltd(000733) , Sinofibers Technology Co.Ltd(300777) , Gaona Aero Material Co.Ltd(300034) , etc;
3. Military electronics and missile information enterprises with high flexibility: Chengdu Zhimingda Electronics Co.Ltd(688636) , Jiayuan technology, Unigroup Guoxin Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002049) , Guoguang Electric Co.Ltd.Chengdu(688776) .
4. Core barrier repair by oversold / state-owned enterprise reform OEMs: China Avionics Systems Co.Ltd(600372) , Avic Aviation High-Technology Co.Ltd(600862) , Avic Shenyang Aircraft Company Limited(600760) , Aecc Aviation Power Co Ltd(600893) , Avic Jonhon Optronic Technology Co.Ltd(002179) , Aecc Aero-Engine Control Co.Ltd(000738) etc.
Risk tip: the delivery of military products slowed down in the first half of the year, the pricing progress of new products was slow, and the impact of macro liquidity.
