Key investment points
Weekly resumption: the rise and fall of this week ranked No. 9, and the PE of SW passenger car was in the historical quantile of 88%; SW car fell 2.9%, outperforming the market by 1.9pct. SW passenger cars, SW commercial trucks, SW commercial buses, SW auto parts and SW auto services all showed a downward trend. Among the 28 industries in Shenwan level, the automobile sector ranked 9th this week, ranking at the top. In terms of valuation, since 2011, the PE / Pb of SW passenger cars have been in the historical 88% / 78% quantile respectively, with the quantile of – 1PCT / – 1PCT compared with last week; PE / Pb of SW parts are at the historical 54% / 24% quantile respectively, with the quantile of – 1PCT / – 6pct compared with last week. Horizontal comparison, passenger car sector valuation in PE is higher than white appliances than Baijiu, PB is lower than white household appliances and Baijiu; The valuation of auto parts sector is lower than that of computer and higher than that of media in terms of PE and Pb. (this week specifically refers to 202204.16 ~ 202204.23, the same below. If the year is not indicated before the month / quarter in the text, it is the current year of 2022 by default)
Prosperity tracking: prosperity tracking: the resumption of work and production is carried out in an orderly manner, and the worst time is over. Tracking the impact of this round of epidemic outbreak on automobile production and marketing: 1) FAW Group resumed production in an orderly manner on April 12. At present, about single shift production has been resumed. 2) Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) this week, the resumption of work and the pressure test of resumption of production are generally smooth, and the port factory of independent passenger vehicles has resumed off-line production of more than 700 complete vehicles. From April 11 to 17, the average daily retail sales volume of passenger cars was 26709, with a year-on-year increase of – 39% and a month on month increase of – 33%; In the first two weeks of April, the cumulative average daily retail sales volume of passenger cars was 25496, with a year-on-year increase of – 35% and a month on month increase of – 37%; From April 11 to 17, the average daily wholesale sales volume was 22554, with a year-on-year increase of – 51% and a month on month increase of – 51%; In the first two weeks of April, the cumulative average daily wholesale sales volume of passenger cars was 23550, with a year-on-year increase of – 44% and a month on month increase of – 48%. The output of narrow passenger cars in March was 1.823 million, with a year-on-year increase of – 0.3% and a month on month increase of + 22.0%; The wholesale sales volume was 1.814 million, with a year-on-year increase of – 1.6% and a month on month increase of + 23.6%. In March, there were 1410700 strong traffic insurance vehicles in the industry, with a month on month ratio of – 15.6% / + 26.46% respectively. Inventory: in March, the overall enterprise inventory of the passenger car industry was + 9000 units, and the channel inventory was + 296000 units.
Key focus: the price of raw materials decreased slightly. The price of raw materials rose slightly. According to our self built passenger car raw material price index model, weighted by the five raw material price indexes of glass, aluminum, plastic, natural rubber and steel, the overall raw material price index of passenger cars this week (04.18-04.22) was + 1.39% month on month (04.11-04.15), and the price indexes of glass, aluminum, plastic, natural rubber and steel were + 1.28% / + 2.31% / + 0.92% / – 0.86% / + 1.33% month on month (04.18-04.22).
Investment suggestion: resume work and production in an orderly manner. Q2 is an important time window for configuring the automobile sector. Eight major gold stocks in 2022: complete vehicle [ Byd Company Limited(002594) + ideal car + Xiaopeng Car + Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) ], parts [ Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) + Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) + Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) + Foryou Corporation(002906) ]. The second is the whole vehicle [ China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) followingthe 238 + China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co.Ltd(601965) + Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) ], follow [ Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) + Ningbo Jifeng Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603997) + Ningbo Joyson Electronic Corp(600699) ].
Risk tip: the impact of chip shortage exceeded expectations, and the price war of passenger cars exceeded expectations.
