Key investment points
Market review: last week, the electrical equipment sector closed at 932288, down – 6.56%. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 308692, down – 3.87%; Shenzhen composite index closed at 110517, down – 5.12%; The CSI 300 index closed at 401325, down – 4.19%; The gem index closed at 2296.6, down – 6.66%. In terms of sub sectors, the photovoltaic equipment sector fell – 7.33%; Wind power equipment sector fell – 4.71%; The battery sector fell – 8.03%, with the largest decline; Power grid equipment sector fell – 4.57%; Motor sector fell – 6.49%; Other power equipment sectors fell – 3.39%, the smallest decline.
Investment suggestion: last week, the electrical equipment sector continued to adjust by a large margin, and the main sub sectors fell by a large margin. At present, the overall valuation of the electrical sector has been at the lowest point in one year. We believe that the fundamental logic of each sector of the new power industry has not changed. The main reason for the decline is the impact of short-term factors. It has been underestimated due to continuous adjustment in the near future. There is limited room for decline in the future, and a rebound is imminent. At present, the photovoltaic sector is still strongly recommended. The performance in the first quarter is strong, the growth certainty of the sector in the future is the highest, and the demand for Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) alternative fossil energy is increasing. It is strongly recommended to actively layout the photovoltaic sector; Affected by the supply chain problems, the new energy vehicle sector has fallen in the short term, and the valuation has reached a stage low. We expect that the sales volume data in April will still have significant month on month growth, and the impact of short-term logistics will soon recover. It is suggested to pay attention to the opportunities of high nickel ternary and undervalued copper foil.
New energy: last week, the General Administration of Customs released the export data of March: the European market increased strongly and the rush loading effect in the Indian market weakened. The performance of other emerging markets is also commendable. On the whole, the outbreak of global regional markets will completely improve the situation that China’s photovoltaic industry depends on a single market, so as to lay a good foundation for industry demand and prosperity. We believe that in the short term, the data of photovoltaic in the first quarter is strong. With the continuous release of new silicon production capacity, the supply side is gradually abundant, which is expected to drive the growth of downstream demand. In the long run, the photovoltaic industry may continue to recommend at the bottom. The order of subdivision is silicon battery silicon wafer module. It is recommended to actively layout companies with alpha.
Wind power: in the global environment of carbon emission reduction, the long-term trend is good, but the short-term performance is affected by the price rise of upstream raw materials and the price reduction of downstream main engines, so it is difficult to achieve high growth. At present, the valuation is at a reasonable level. It is suggested to pay attention to the catalysis brought to the sector by the future bidding situation of the industry and the price trend of raw materials.
New energy vehicles: some enterprises have resumed work this week. We expect that the sales data in April will still exceed expectations, forming a catalytic factor of stock price. In the long run, due to the impact of lithium supply, the growth rate of global sales may be lower than expected, and the possibility of sector opportunities is low. It is suggested to pay attention to the opportunities of technology replacement and capacity tension. It is recommended that the domestic aluminum-plastic film sector may replace the accelerated aluminum-plastic film sector this year.
Power equipment: last week, the international commodity prices remained stable as a whole, and the prices of copper, aluminum and steel were adjusted at a high level. It is still difficult to predict the subsequent price change trend and continue to follow up.
The combination of this week will combine the combination of the combination of the week: Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy Co.Ltd(600732) ;, Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) , Shenzhen Xfh Technology Co.Ltd(300890) .
Risk warning: the risk that the growth rate of the industry is lower than expected; Risk of policy uncertainty; The risk of price decline due to fierce market competition.
