Industry comments
This week, the overall correction range of the real estate and property sector was large. This week, Shenwan A-share real estate sector rose or fell by – 9.2%, ranking 28th among all sectors; Wind Hong Kong stocks and real estate sector rose or fell by – 5.9%, ranking 16th among all sectors. This week, the Hang Seng property service and management index rose or fell by – 10.3%, the Hang Seng China enterprise index rose or fell by – 5.6%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose or fell by – 4.2%; The relative returns of the property index to Hang Seng China enterprise index and CSI 300 were – 4.7% and – 6.1% respectively.
On Monday, hand house sales rose slightly month on month and continued to decline year-on-year. This week, commercial housing transactions in 40 cities totaled 3.75 million square meters, with a week-on-week ratio of + 6% and a week-on-week ratio of – 49%, including a week-on-week ratio of + 8% and a week-on-week ratio of – 57% in first tier cities; Second tier cities + 4% QoQ and – 44% YoY; Third and fourth tier cities were + 14% mom and – 61% yoy.
This week, the sales of second-hand houses increased slightly month on month and decreased year on year. Second hand housing transactions in 17 cities this week totaled 1.51 million square meters, with a week on week ratio of + 5% and a week on year ratio of – 37%, including + 1% and – 35% in first tier cities; Second tier cities + 6% QoQ and – 36% YoY; Third and fourth tier cities were + 5% mom and – 61% yoy.
The heating degree of concentrated soil in the Yangtze River Delta is maintained at a low temperature. This week, the transaction and construction area of residential land in 300 cities nationwide was 8.49 million square meters, with a month on week ratio of 21%, a year-on-year ratio of – 31% and an average premium rate of 4%. Since the beginning of 2022, a total of 119.05 million square meters of residential land has been sold in 300 cities across the country, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of – 52%; Since the beginning of the year, the land acquisition amount of Jianfa real estate, China Resources Land, CNOOC real estate, green city China and Shanghai real estate ranks among the top five in the industry. This week, Nanjing, Ningbo and Nantong focused on land auction, which reduced the threshold by canceling the allocation of rental housing, prolonging the payment time of land transfer fee and increasing the price limit of blank. However, the heat of land auction is still low. There are 62 homesteads in the three cities, with 55 transactions, of which 39 are at the base price and 8 touch the ceiling price, with an average premium rate of only 4.87%. Although there have been loose regulatory policies recently, However, the transmission to market sales and real estate enterprises still lags behind, and most real estate enterprises are cautious in participating in the auction.
The Ministry of housing and urban rural development stated that it attached great importance to risks in the real estate field. On April 24, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development held a meeting to implement the decision and deployment of the CPC Central Committee on economic work. The meeting pointed out that we should focus on urban renewal, the transformation of old urban communities, the construction of affordable housing, the construction and transformation of underground pipe networks, and study and take more vigorous policies and measures to promote the release of domestic demand potential; We should adhere to the bottom line thinking, attach great importance to risks in the field of real estate, prevent and resolve risks in the field of urban and rural construction, and resolutely hold the bottom line of no systemic risks. Previously, Zhengzhou, Nanning, Lanzhou and other key cities in central and Western China have issued monetized resettlement policies for shed reform. The Ministry of housing and urban rural development has stated that it will promote the release of demand around urban renewal, old reform and other measures. We expect that the monetized resettlement of shed reform in low-energy cities will be accelerated and the old reform of high-energy cities will be strengthened. At the same time, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development emphasizes the importance of risks in the real estate field. We expect that the appropriate deregulation of pre-sale funds will be further optimized to alleviate the short-term capital pressure of real estate enterprises.
Investment advice
We expect that in the future, all central departments and local governments will jointly introduce multi-dimensional loose real estate regulation policies to promote the gradual stabilization of the real estate industry. In the real estate sector, we recommend green city China, China Construction Development International and Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) , which have contrarian sales growth and strong performance certainty. In the property sector, we are optimistic about the valuation repair flexibility of private property companies after the liquidity crisis of related real estate enterprises is lifted, and recommend Jinke service and country garden service.
Risk tips
Loose regulation is less than expected; The epidemic affected the implementation of policies and market recovery
