Key investment points:
Plate market this week:
This week, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 3.87%, the gem index fell 6.66%, the CSI 300 fell 4.19%, the CITIC basic chemical index fell 5.96%, and the Shenwan chemical index fell 6.18%.
Rise and fall of various sub sectors of chemical industry: this week, the top five sub sectors of chemical industry were polyester (0.69%), pesticide (- 1.46%), potassium fertilizer (- 1.78%), tire (- 2.62%) and membrane material (- 2.97%); The top five sub industries in the chemical sector were phosphorus fertilizer and phosphorus chemical (- 10.23%), synthetic resin (- 9.7%), chlor alkali (- 9.59%), titanium dioxide (- 9.54%) and soda ash (- 8.91%).
Main trends of the industry this week:
Chemical fiber: on April 21, the Ministry of industry and information technology and the national development and Reform Commission issued the guiding opinions on the high-quality development of chemical fiber industry. The opinion defines the development objectives of the chemical fiber industry. By 2025, the industrial added value of chemical fiber enterprises above Designated Size will increase by 5% annually, the proportion of chemical fiber output in the world will be basically stable, the investment intensity of industrial R & D funds will reach 2%, the digital popularization rate of enterprise operation and management will reach 80%, the numerical control rate of key processes will reach 80%, the proportion of green fiber will increase to more than 25%, and the output of bio based chemical fiber and degradable fiber materials will increase by more than 20% annually. The opinions put forward that it is necessary to accelerate the development of bio based chemical fibers and degradable fiber materials, strengthen the tackling of key equipment and key raw and auxiliary materials, promote the research on the process route and technical reserves of bio based chemical fiber raw materials and coal based chemical fiber raw materials, and encourage leading enterprises to build an integrated base of the whole chemical fiber textile industry chain in Guangxi, Guizhou, Xinjiang and other central and western regions. It is required to improve the production and application level of carbon fiber, aramid fiber, ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene fiber, polyimide fiber, polyphenylene sulfide fiber, polytetrafluoroethylene fiber and continuous basalt fiber, and improve the quality consistency and batch stability of high-performance fiber.
Investment suggestions:
At the policy end, the production capacity of phosphorus chemical industry is strictly controlled. The supply and demand of phosphorus fertilizer is tight. Supported by the cost, the price has entered the upward channel, the gap of overseas demand has increased, the high price difference of phosphorus fertilizer at home and abroad is expected to continue, and China’s prosperity remains upward. The key concerns are: Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) , Guizhou Chanhen Chemical Corporation(002895) , Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(600141) . With the advent of the peak sales season at home and abroad, the demand for glyphosate resumes, the price of yellow phosphorus rises, and the cost supports the price rise of glyphosate. Lier Chemical Co.Ltd(002258) is the leader of glyphosate in China, with leading technology, cost and scale in the world, abundant reserve projects, and the performance is expected to continue to grow. Focus on: Lier Chemical Co.Ltd(002258) Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) production capacity has been expanded in an orderly manner. The British base in Southwest China has been put into operation, and the Jiangmen base in South China has been started. The national layout has gradually taken shape. In order to create the second growth point, the company has accelerated the development of functional materials, continuously consolidated its industry position, and focused on: Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) . Photovoltaic glass is growing strongly, China’s demand for soda ash is strong, and natural soda has obvious advantages in environmental protection and cost. The leader Inner Mongoliayuan Xing Energy Company Limited(000683) plans to hold Yingen mining, the production capacity is expected to maintain stable growth, and the supply and demand pattern of the industry is expected to be reshaped. Key attention: Inner Mongoliayuan Xing Energy Company Limited(000683) Shandong Head Co.Ltd(002810) plant capsule production capacity continues to be released. Relying on its scale advantage, it refers to the first brand in Asia, and mitega, a joint-stock company, takes the lead in the technology industry. It accelerates the market-oriented application of food grade cellulose ether in the field of artificial meat and creates the second growth curve of the company, focusing on: Shandong Head Co.Ltd(002810) . Relying on the advantages of technology and scale, the global voice of China’s leading chemical industry has been continuously improved, and the leading cost control ability has created a profit moat. At present, the valuation is still low, focusing on: Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) , Huafon Chemical Co.Ltd(002064) . Chinese tire enterprises have begun to rise, continue to explore the global market, and the market share has continued to increase. China’s epidemic control ability is excellent. Domestic tires are expected to overtake in corners and maintain high-speed growth for a long time. Focus on: Shandong Linglong Tyre Co.Ltd(601966) , Sailun Group Co.Ltd(601058) , Qingdao Sentury Tire Co.Ltd(002984) . China has accelerated the development of new coal chemical industry. The leading enterprise of coal to olefin Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) , with obvious advantages of industrial chain integration and cost advantages to ensure profitability, focuses on: Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) .
Risk warning: macroeconomic downturn; Large fluctuations in oil prices; Downstream demand was lower than expected.
