Core view
Industry view: independent rise, electric intelligence. Under the influence of the epidemic situation, geopolitics and other comprehensive factors, the global commodity prices have continued to rise, the prices of important raw materials for automobile production such as aluminum, magnesium, lithium, steel, petroleum, rubber and chips have continued to rise, and the costs of complete vehicles and parts have continued to be under pressure. Since February, some complete vehicle enterprises have officially announced price increases. The market is worried that the pressure on the supply side will eventually be transmitted to the demand side, and the recent correction of the automobile sector has been large, We believe that the price trend of raw materials is difficult to predict in the short term, but the trend of electrification and intelligent upgrading of the automotive industry remains unchanged, which is still the main logic of the next 5-10 dimensions. Some parts have fallen to a reasonable valuation level, and the medium and long-term configuration value is prominent. We recommend the rise of independent brands and the intelligent upgrading of automotive electrification. Main line 1: in 2021, the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles exceeded 15%, and the key point entered the accelerated penetration. Under the background of the bottom support of three electricity technology, the logic of vehicle production changed. The independent brand surpassed the joint venture in terms of organizational structure, supply chain perfection and business model, and is optimistic about the industrial chain investment opportunities brought by the rise of independent brands for a long time. Main line 2: the core of vehicle electrification is the application of energy flow. With the superposition of multiple factors such as policy, technology and Tesla, new energy vehicles have entered the stage of high-quality development, the product power of demand driven models has been improved, and the technical trend has been upgraded to lithium iron phosphate, 4680 cylinder, multi-in-one electric drive system, vehicle platform high voltage and other multidimensional upgrades. Mainline 3: the core of automotive intelligence is the application of data flow. Incremental parts include: acquisition end – laser radar, millimeter wave radar, camera and other sensors, transmission end – high-speed connector, calculation end – domain controller, application end – air suspension, wire controlled braking and steering, interaction end – HUD, interactive lamp, central control instrument, sky glass, on-board acoustics, etc.
Market resumption: CS auto fell 2.73%, stronger than the CSI 300 index of 1.45pct. This week (2022041820220422), CS cars fell by 2.73%, CS passenger cars fell by 1.97%, CS commercial vehicles fell by 6.62%, CS auto parts fell by 2.66%, CS car sales and services fell by 3.89%, CS motorcycles and others rose by 2.7%, electric vehicles fell by 6.92%, smart cars fell by 4.13%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell by 4.19% and the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.87%. CS automobile is stronger than the CSI 300 index by 1.45pct and the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.14pct, down 27.85% year to date.
Data tracking: the retail sales of narrow passenger cars in April is expected to be 1.1 million. According to the data of China Automobile Association, in March 2022, China’s automobile production and sales were 224.12234000 respectively, with a month on month ratio of + 23.4% / + 28.4% and a year-on-year ratio of – 9.1% / – 11.7% respectively; Among them, the sales of passenger cars / commercial vehicles / new energy vehicles were 186.4/37.0484000 respectively, with a year-on-year rate of – 0.6% / – 43.5% / + 114.1% respectively. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in March was 21.7%. According to the data of the passenger Federation, the retail sales of narrow passenger cars in April is expected to be 1.1 million, up – 30% year-on-year.
Investment suggestion: be optimistic about electric and intelligent vehicles. Energy end Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) etc; Moving end Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) , Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corporation(603197) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , etc; Interaction end Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) , Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) , Foryou Corporation(002906) , Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) , etc; Vehicle end: SAIC, GAC, great wall, Chang’an, Byd Company Limited(002594) etc. It is suggested to pay attention to the industrial chain of lidar, integrated die casting and new energy electric drive system.
Risk tip: Auto chip capacity risk, sales volume downside risk, traditional enterprise reform risk.
