Core view
Economic growth is expected to weaken, and industrial metal prices generally fall
This week, the IMF lowered its global economic growth forecast from 4.1% to 3.2%, and it is still possible to continue to reduce it; The ECB also lowered the growth rate of this year and next year to 2.9% and 2.3%; In addition, the chairman of the Federal Reserve said that interest rates may be increased by 50 basis points in May, raising concerns about the U.S. economic recession. Affected by this, industrial metal prices generally fell this week, and LME copper fell – 2.38% to close at US $10069 / ton; LME aluminum fell – 1.25% to close at US $3244.5/ton; LME lead fell – 1.97% to close at US $2387 / ton; LME zinc fell – 0.43% to close at US $4393 / ton; LME tin fell – 1.9% to close at US $42225 / ton; LME nickel fell – 0.08% to close at US $33150 / ton. It is suggested to pay attention to Yunnan Copper Co.Ltd(000878) , Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co.Ltd(000630) , Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) .
Policies promote the resumption of production of automobile industry chain, and the demand for lithium and cobalt is expected to improve
At present, the epidemic still has a great impact on the demand for energy metals, and the price of lithium and cobalt is under pressure. This week, battery grade lithium carbonate fell – 1.04% to 475445 yuan / ton, battery grade lithium hydroxide fell – 2.06% to 498416 yuan / ton, and cobalt sulfate fell – 0.85% to 116500 yuan / ton. Driven by the policy, the automotive industry chain in Shanghai is returning to production in an orderly manner. With the gradual restoration of smooth logistics, the impact of the epidemic may weaken, and the demand for lithium and cobalt is expected to recover rapidly. It is recommended to pay attention to Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Chengtun Mining Group Co.Ltd(600711) .
The impact of the epidemic has been alleviated, and infrastructure investment supports metal consumption
The epidemic is still the biggest resistance to demand recovery, but under the requirements of the government to speed up the restoration of smooth logistics, the downstream demand is expected to improve, and the aluminum social inventory starts to go to the warehouse again; With the further mitigation of the impact of the epidemic, replenishment and resumption of production are expected to boost the demand and price of industrial metals. Meanwhile, the growth rate of infrastructure investment in the first quarter reached 10.5%, and the financial expenditure on urban and rural community affairs, agriculture, forestry and water affairs and transportation increased by 7.5%, 8.4% and 10.9% respectively. Infrastructure development is conducive to medium and long-term metal consumption. Copper in the previous period of this week rose 0.62% to close at US $74920 / ton; Aluminum rose 0.8% to close at US $21900 / ton; Lead rose 1.94% to close at US $15720 / ton; Zinc rose 0.98% to close at US $28565 / ton; Tin fell – 0.27% to close at US $336950 / ton; Nickel rose 4.59% to close at US $238880 / ton. It is recommended to pay attention to Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co.Ltd(000630) Jiangxi Copper Company Limited(600362) Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) .
The expectation of raising interest rates put pressure on the price of gold and the value of gold allocation remained unchanged
Fed chairman Powell released a hawkish signal, saying that interest rates may be increased by 50 basis points in May and may be increased continuously in June and July. Affected by this, the US dollar index closed at 101.12, hitting a two-year high; At the same time, new news came from the Russia Ukraine negotiations, which cooled the risk aversion in the market. This week, spot gold in London fell – 2.20% to close at US $193088/oz, while the US dollar index rose 0.60% to close at 101.12; COMEX gold fell – 2.15% this week to close at US $193430/oz. Although the expectation of interest rate increase is strong, the market is gradually digesting the impact of interest rate increase, high inflation will continue in the short term, and the situation in Russia and Ukraine is not clear. Gold still has high allocation value.
Risk tips: political risk, epidemic impact, demand recovery is less than expected, and economic growth slows down
