Core view
The inflection point of public offering positions in the securities sector is down, and the positions in the insurance sector continue to hit a record low. 1) 1q22 brokerage sector (except China stock market news, the same below) has warmed up for the second consecutive quarter before the end of the proportion of public offering positions, and the inflection point is down. By calculating the details of heavy positions of public funds of flexible allocation type, partial stock type and common stock type (the fund type that can best reflect the position style and subjective allocation willingness of public funds), as of 1q22, the position of public offering heavy positions of securities companies accounted for 0.46%, down 20bp from 0.66% in 4q21, indicating that the investment sentiment of securities companies is getting colder. 2) 1q22 the proportion of public offering heavy positions in the insurance sector has further decreased, reflecting that the expectations and investment sentiment of the sector have not improved. As of 1q22, the position proportion of the insurance sector has decreased from 2.25% of 4q20 to 0.15% (following the 0.17% of 4q21, a record low).
The range of low allocation in the securities sector expanded month on month, and the range of low allocation in the insurance sector continued to set a new record. 1) The proportion of free circulation market value of 1q22 securities companies fell from 4.17% to 3.97% month on month. As of 1q22, the low allocation range (low allocation range = (proportion of free circulation – proportion of heavily held shares) / proportion of free circulation) of public offering in the securities sector was 88.50%, and the low allocation range of the sector significantly expanded compared with 84.14% of 4q21, ending the positive trend of two consecutive quarters before. 2) As of 1q22, the free circulation market value of the insurance sector accounted for 1.78%, an increase of 0.12pct compared with 4q21. In contrast, the low allocation range of the sector has further set a new record. As of 1q22, the low allocation range of the insurance sector has increased to 91.36% month on month compared with 89.65% of 4q21, especially compared with 47% of the high allocation range of 18q3, indicating that the investment sentiment of the sector has dropped to the historical freezing point.
The top 10 heavyweight stocks in the securities sector were generally reduced, and the individual stocks in the insurance sector showed obvious differentiation. 1) Except for Guolian Securities Co.Ltd(601456) Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) , the top 10 heavy position stocks in the securities sector were reduced, among which Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) , China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) and China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) fell from 0.178%, 0.037% and 0.045% to 0.082%, 0.018% and 0.007% respectively China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) directly withdraw from the top 10 list. 2) Different from the brokerage sector, the proportion of top 5 heavy position stocks in the insurance sector has obvious differentiation. The proportion of public offering heavy position stocks of Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) , China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) has decreased from 0.1301% and 0.0395% of 4q21 to 0.1158% and 0.0150% respectively China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) , New China Life Insurance Company Ltd(601336) ‘s heavy stock ratio increased from 0.0020% and 0.0005% to 0.0128% and 0.0098% respectively. 3) In the diversified financial sector, Zhejiang Huatie Emergency Equipment Science & Technology Co.Ltd(603300) ranked first in the sector for the second consecutive quarter, with a position ratio of 0.0634%, a slight increase month on month. In the period of low economic boom, AWP lessors of aerial work platform have shown obvious resilience, and the market recognition is continuously improving.
Investment proposal and investment object
On the whole, the allocation of institutional funds to the non bank sector is at the bottom of history, and the valuations are at the bottom of history, implying the market’s very pessimistic expectations for the sector. Some targets have obvious oversold, and the allocation value is prominent.
In terms of securities companies, favorable capital market policies and institutional innovation are still the main theme of the current sector, maintaining a positive rating. In difficult market times, we should stick to the clear and clear undervalued value leader, and still advocate the main line of derivatives. We recommend Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) ( Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , overweight), Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) ( Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) , overweight), and we suggest paying attention to China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) (03908, Unrated); Secondly, with the recovery of the market and fund sales, we should continue to pay attention to the main line of large public offering and recommend Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) ( Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , buy) and China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) ( China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) , overweight).
In terms of insurance, the transformation of life insurance liabilities is still advancing, and the decline of team size and the adjustment of product structure lead to the corresponding increase of production capacity. However, we should continue to pay attention to the production capacity climbing under the stable scale and the release of demand after the activation of security awareness; The logic of both quantity and quality of auto insurance is solid, the growth momentum of non auto insurance is strong and the space is broad, and the opportunity of property insurance allocation is reiterated; There is not much pessimistic expectation on the investment side. Maintain the positive rating of the industry, and follow-up suggestions focus on China Property Insurance (02328, not rated), Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) ( Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) , buy), AIA (01299, not rated).
In terms of diversified finance, it is recommended to focus on Jiangsu Financial Leasing Co.Ltd(600901) ( Jiangsu Financial Leasing Co.Ltd(600901) , not rated), the leader of high-altitude working platform (AWP) lessee Zhejiang Huatie Emergency Equipment Science & Technology Co.Ltd(603300) ( Zhejiang Huatie Emergency Equipment Science & Technology Co.Ltd(603300) , buy) and far east Hongxin (03360, buy).
Risk tips
The suppression of systemic risk on the performance and valuation of securities business; Stricter supervision than expected;
The long-term interest rate is lower than expected; Related policy risks in diversified financial field.
