In the past 21 years, the industry performance has been strong, the penetration of automotive intelligence has accelerated, and the scarcity leader of automotive electronics is expected to fully benefit. Recently, a number of parts and complete vehicles have announced the annual report of 2021 and the first quarterly report of 2022. In 2021, a number of enterprises in the automotive industry performed well, but the supply chain was under pressure in the first quarter due to factors such as core shortage, epidemic situation and rising prices of raw materials. We believe that as the epidemic situation is gradually controlled and the resumption of work and production is gradually started, the performance of 22q2 is expected to gradually pick up. At present, the penetration of intelligent vehicles is accelerated, and the popularity of chassis wire control continues. The penetration rate will increase rapidly to 10% in the next few years. With the orderly resumption of downstream main engine plants and the opening of a new round of automobile cycle driven by industry recovery and intelligence, the leader of automobile electronics scarcity is expected to fully benefit.
The performance resilience of key parts companies is strong, and the development of automotive electronics business has been accelerated in an all-round way. Electric and intelligent accelerate the reshaping of the automobile industry chain. Zhongding, Asia Pacific, topu and other manufacturers are looking forward to layout the core parts of the chassis. Ningbo Joyson Electronic Corp(600699) , Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) accelerate the research and development of intelligent cockpit. Domestic substitution is unstoppable, and the rise of independent brands is accelerated. From the performance of core parts companies in 2021, the operating revenue of Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Jingwei Hengrun, Zhejiang Asia-Pacific Mechanical & Electronic Co.Ltd(002284) and Zhejiang Asia-Pacific Mechanical & Electronic Co.Ltd(002284) were + 76.0% / + 40.7% / + 31.6% / + 24.3 year-on-year respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was + 61.9% / + 60.7% / + 98.4% / + 168.4%. Among them, the customer structure of Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Zhejiang Asia-Pacific Mechanical & Electronic Co.Ltd(002284) and other companies has been continuously optimized, and the development of automotive electronics business has been comprehensively accelerated.
The performance of the whole vehicle factory in 2021 was brilliant, and the lack of core superimposed epidemic caused short-term pressure on the performance of 22q1. . In March, Shanghai and Jilin were seriously affected by the epidemic. With the gradual resumption of production and work, the recovery of the supply chain is progressing steadily, and the production and marketing is expected to be further released.
Market performance this week: this week, the A-share auto sector (shenwanyi industry) – 2.87%, stronger than CSI 300 (- 4.19%), ranking 9th among 32 shenwanyi industries.
Investment suggestion: under neutral and optimistic assumptions, the auto industry is expected to enter a new round of recovery in 2022h2. In the recovery period, it is recommended to configure the passenger car sector with early cycle attribute. Under the pessimistic assumption, the auto industry is expected to start a new recovery cycle in 2023. 22q4 suggests configuring the passenger car sector with early cycle attribute. Based on the perspective of zugra cycle, the parts sector is expected to open a ten year old bull: it is expected that the industry will open a new round of zugra cycle in 2022, and the reconstruction and upgrading of parts will be the main driving force. At present, the parts sector continues to have low allocation. Under optimistic and neutral assumptions, the 2022h2 parts sector is expected to usher in a ten year old bull. Focus on the passenger car system in the recovery period. Recommend Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) and Byd Company Limited(002594) , and pay attention to Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) , and Geely Automobile. Parts section: the parts section recommends leading companies of chassis by wire Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) , Zhejiang Asia-Pacific Mechanical & Electronic Co.Ltd(002284) and Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) . It is suggested to pay attention to companies related to the industrial chain Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corporation(603197) and Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) .
Risk tip: the squeeze of real estate on consumption and the higher than expected rise of raw material costs have restored the low gross profit margin of the industry; The global chip shortage has more constraints on automobile supply than expected, resulting in lower sales than expected.
