The position of Dianxin was stable at a high level. Taking into account some errors in industry classification, we made statistics on 305 stocks in the new power industry. The results show that the position proportion of power IPO Fund in 2022q1 is 20.86%, with a month on month ratio of + 2.19pcs and a year-on-year ratio of + 9.59pcs; The proportion of Dianxin stock market value in the total market value of A-Shares was 10.14%, with a month on month ratio of -1.1pcts, a year-on-year increase of + 2.42pcts. Compared with the proportion of the market value of the new power industry in the total market value of a shares, the position of new power shares is still stably maintained at the over allocation level. By sector, the position of new energy power generation increased from 6.09% in 2021q4 to 6.80% in 2022q1; New energy vehicles basically maintained the high configuration level of the previous quarter, rising from 10.58% to 12.69%; The power equipment and industrial control sector decreased slightly from 2.11% to 1.41%.
The industry has made short-term adjustment, but it is still at the over allocation level. It is optimistic about leading companies. From the perspective of companies with the top ten positions in market value, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) are still the top two positions in the new power sector. In terms of concentration, the concentration of 2022q1 has increased, and the market value of top20 positions accounts for 78.68% of the market value of Dianxin general fund, with a month on month ratio of + 5.51pcts. Since 2022, disturbed by macro market factors and supply chain price game factors, the new power sector has made some adjustments, and the overall position market value of the sector has decreased month on month, but the proportion is still high. From the ranking of position increase and decrease, although the total market value of shares held by industry leading companies fell month on month, they are still in a leading position.
Outlook: new energy vehicles: the sales volume of 22q1 new energy vehicles increased rapidly, with a cumulative sales volume of 1257000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 138.6%. At the upstream raw material end, with the release of upstream capacity in the second and third quarters, the price of lithium carbonate is expected to gradually callback, and the profitability of midstream batteries / materials is expected to improve. We maintain our judgment on the sales volume of 5.5 million new energy vehicles in China in 2022, a year-on-year increase of + 59%. New energy power generation: photovoltaic: it is expected that in the second half of the year, the price center of the industrial chain will be lowered and the demand will accelerate month on month. It is expected to maintain the judgment of more than 230gw of new photovoltaic installed capacity in the world in 2022. Wind power: in 2022q1, the newly installed capacity of wind power is 7.9gw and the newly increased bidding capacity is 15.8gw, with strong growth certainty; In terms of economy, land wind has basically achieved parity, the pace of parity of offshore wind power has accelerated, and the industry is expected to continue to strengthen the ironing cycle and growth. Power equipment and industrial control: the investment scale of power grid in the 14th five year plan is larger than that in the 13th five year plan. Under the background of “double high”, the main lines such as UHV, digital & intelligent transformation are more prominent, and the demand for low-voltage appliances is expected to increase & localization substitution is accelerated. Affected by the epidemic situation, the general rise of commodity prices and other factors, industrial control has restrained some downstream demand in the short term, and the medium and long-term growth logic is stable.
Risk tip: the policy does not meet expectations, and the price drops more than expected due to the intensification of industry competition.
