Introduction to the report: at present, the resumption of work and production of automobile enterprises is progressing steadily, and the worst time of supply level has passed. The current sector PE (TTM) is 40% of the quantile in recent three years, and the average PE (TTM) in recent three years is 25X. The pessimistic expectation response is sufficient, the short-term bottom of the sector has passed, and the medium and long-term allocation price is prominent. Key investment points
Market Review
The auto sector fell 2.87%, the CSI 300 index fell 4.19% in the same period, and the auto industry was 1.32 percentage points ahead of the CSI 300 index. From the perspective of sector ranking, the growth rate of the automobile industry last week ranked ninth among the 31 sectors of Shenwan, which is at the upstream level compared with other industries. The new energy vehicle index fell 4.13%. Among the sub sectors, the rise and fall of passenger vehicles / commercial trucks / commercial buses / auto parts / auto services this week were - 1.55% / - 6.95% / - 3.87% / - 3.59% / - 3.53% respectively.
Market hot spot
The resumption of work and production was promoted in an orderly manner. Tesla Shanghai Super factory and Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) have officially started to resume production on April 19, and the great wall tank 300 also resumed production on April 22. Together with the core suppliers, the Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai governments have also actively coordinated to ensure the smooth supply chain and logistics transportation.
Tesla Q1 exceeded expectations. Tesla released the first quarterly report of 22 years. The global delivery volume of 22q1 was 310000, with a year-on-year increase of + 68%. The revenue of automobile sales business (excluding points) was US $15.5 billion, with a year-on-year increase of + 89%, higher than the sales growth, because the revenue of single vehicle was increasing, and the revenue of single vehicle reached US $50000 in the first quarter. In terms of profitability, the gross profit margin of automobile business in the first quarter reached 32.9%, with a month on month ratio of + 2.3 percentage points, and the single vehicle profit reached US $11000, both reaching a record high. The reasons for Tesla's rising profitability against the backdrop of global inflation and rising prices in the middle and upper reaches are as follows: 1) the optimization of model structure and the increase in the proportion of Y with better profitability; 2) The scale effect was further highlighted, and the single vehicle SG & a decreased significantly.
This week's view: the short-term bottom of the sector has passed, and the medium and long-term allocation value is prominent
From the perspective of supply, the worst time is probably over. The worst time is last week. From the week of April 18, the automobile supply chain has stopped production to gradually restore single shift. At present, the resumption of work and production of automobile enterprises is progressing steadily, and it is expected to gradually restore to double shift in mid May. As for demand, the data from May to June are relatively important. The impact of price rise, epidemic situation and macro economy on automobile consumption will appear. We are not pessimistic about demand. 1) under the repeated epidemic situation, the awareness of personal protection will be strengthened to stimulate and promote more demand for car purchase; 2) The impact of the epidemic on automobile consumption is more delayed; 3) The relaxed purchase restriction policy + consumption promotion policy are on the road, and we are optimistic about the recovery of automobile consumption after the epidemic; 4) In the medium and long term, China's car ownership per thousand people is low, and there is still room for new car sales. At present, the quantile of PE (TTM) in the sector is 40% in recent three years, and the average PE (TTM) in recent three years is 25X. The pessimistic expectation response is relatively sufficient. The bottom of the sector has passed in the short term, the medium and long-term dimensional configuration value is prominent, and the upward trend of the sector under the rise of domestic products and electric intelligence remains unchanged.
It is recommended to focus on Byd Company Limited(002594) ; fourmajor areas of localization ( .
Investment strategy and key recommendations
In the field of complete vehicles, the independent rise in 2022 will continue to be deduced, which is mainly driven by the following three factors: 1) the mainstream price of pure electricity has been improved and the models have been further enriched; 2) Usher in the first year of hybrid independently and challenge the 1 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 00000 fuel vehicle market; 3) With the acceleration of intelligence, the independent advantage is more obvious. We believe that the market share of new forces + Tesla + head is expected to continue to increase this year. In the field of parts and components, with the change of the pattern of downstream main engine plants, the new forces and the independent market share of the head will continue to increase. The accelerated iteration of models in the era of electric intelligence has greatly improved the requirements of car enterprises for the response service efficiency of parts and components enterprises. The previously solidified zero adjustment relationship is expected to be broken, the domestic parts and components industry chain rises with the trend, and the accelerated promotion of electric intelligence has given birth to a large number of value-added parts and new industrial trends, We are optimistic about the rise of domestic products and electric intelligence, and continue to focus on four subdivided areas: integrated die casting, intelligent driving, intelligent cockpit and localization of passenger car seats. Passenger cars: mainly recommend Byd Company Limited(002594) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Geely Automobile (H); It is suggested to pay attention to ideal, Xiaopeng and Weilai.
Parts and components of the '' Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) tesla industrial chain), China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co.Ltd(601965) (testing), Nanjing Chervon Auto Precision Technology Co.Ltd(603982) (lightweight & Tesla supply chain), etc., focusing on Foryou Corporation(002906) (HUD) Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) (air suspension), Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) (lightweight), Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) , etc.
Risk tips
The epidemic eased less than expected; The sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected; The price of raw materials has risen sharply.
