[pigs: the price of pigs increased significantly in April] the average price of pigs this week was 14.0 yuan / kg, with a week-on-week increase of + 12.7%; The price of compound feed for fattening pigs was 3.82 yuan / kg, unchanged on a weekly basis; With the rebound of pig prices, the loss range of the industry narrowed slightly, with an average loss of 157.6 yuan for purchased piglets and 378.6 yuan for self bred pigs. Zhuo Chuang data show that the average weight of pigs released this week was 119.4kg, a month on month increase of + 0.65%. The average price of live pigs has been rising for three consecutive weeks, which is mainly caused by the following factors: 1) affected by the road closure of covid-19 epidemic, the transportation of North pigs to the south is blocked, and the price of South pigs is the first to rise; 2) Affected by the low price and seasonal factors of pig disease in winter, the breeding and delivery rate of sows has continued to decline since October last year, thus affecting the slaughter volume of pigs from April to September. 3) The rise of feed price and the high feed meat ratio make the sentiment of pressing the fence at the breeding end more cautious, and the slaughter weight continues to be at a normal or even low level. On the whole, the contraction of supply side is the core reason for this round of price rise, and logistics factors also play a catalytic role. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, there were 41.85 million fertile sows in the country at the end of the first quarter, equivalent to 102.1% of the normal population of 41 million, and the production capacity has returned to the normal level. In the absence of large-scale extreme weight gain, it is expected that the operation center of pig price will move upward as a whole. Whether the pig price can rebound above the industry profit and loss balance line in the short term can verify the real stock and de stocking level of sows that can be bred since the third quarter of last year; If the rebound height in the later stage is limited, it is still possible to continue to force Amoy under the pressure of large cash flow in the industry. COFCO and COFCO have strong advantages in the allocation of and 35.
[poultry: both supply and demand boost chicken prices] the average price of white feather broilers this week was 9.24 yuan / kg, up 3.9% on a weekly basis; The average price of broiler seedlings was 3.18 yuan / feather, with a weekly increase of 52.2%; Broiler formula feed was 3.86 yuan / kg, unchanged on a weekly basis. Affected by the low emergence of incubated enterprises in March and the small amount of supplementary breeding by farmers, the number of broilers in China decreased in April; Near the festival, the enthusiasm of slaughtering enterprises to acquire has increased, and the price of chicken has risen rapidly with the boost of both supply and demand. In addition, in March, the reduction of production stock of parents’ generation will lag by 2 months, which is reflected in the marketing of wool chicken and chicken supply, and the supply side will continue to support the price of white chicken. At present, the avian influenza epidemic in the United States and France is still spreading. If the follow-up epidemic can not be effectively controlled, it may have an impact on China’s introduction. Pay attention to the relevant targets of the poultry industry chain. Broilers are recommended to pay attention to Fujian Sunner Development Co.Ltd(002299) , Hunan Xiangjia Animal Husbandry Company Limited(002982) , Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , laying hens are recommended to pay attention to Ningxia Xiaoming Agriculture & Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(300967) .
[planting: pay attention to the progress of spring sowing in the northern hemisphere] the spot price of corn this week was 2841.5 yuan / ton, up 0.13% on a weekly basis; The spot price of wheat was 3277.2 yuan / ton, up 5.9% week on week; The average spot price of soybean meal was 4524.3 yuan / ton, down 0.7% on a weekly basis. 1) United States: as of the week of April 17, the sowing progress of corn in the United States was 4%, 7% in the same period last year, and the five-year average was 6%; The sowing progress of soybean is 1%, which is similar to the five-year average level. At present, the lower than average temperature and rainy and snowy weather in the United States have led to the postponement of farmers’ planting plans. The sowing progress of corn needs to be 30% on May 1 and 70% in the third week of May, so as not to cause large losses to the area. 2) Ukraine: the Ministry of agriculture of Ukraine predicts that affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the spring sowing area may decline by 20% in 2022, of which the decline in the northern region may reach 30% to 40%. At present, Ukrainian farmers have sown 2.5 million hectares of spring crops, equivalent to 20% of the expected area. 3) China: 199 million mu of grain has been sown in spring this week, with a sowing progress of 21.2%, compared with 19.9% in the same period last year. However, affected by the epidemic, the sowing progress of corn and other crops in Northeast China has been delayed. It is suggested to pay attention to spring sowing in the northern hemisphere, and the yield tolerance rate is low under the background of low overseas grain inventory. With the gradual increase of China’s grain import dependence, the grain boom is expected to remain high, and the related targets of the planting industry chain are expected to benefit directly. It is suggested to give priority to high-quality planting enterprises ( Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation And Development Co.Ltd(601952) , Heilongjiang Agriculture Company Limited(600598) ), followed by high-quality seed enterprises ( Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) , Winall Hi-Tech Seed Co.Ltd(300087) ) with leading scientific research strength and first mover advantage of transgenic.
[animal protection] in March 2022, the chain ratio of porcine parvovirus vaccine was – 21.8%, year-on-year – 37.9%, CSFV vaccine was + 14.1%, year-on-year-43.2%, Pseudorabies Vaccine was + 25.7%, year-on-year-21.0%, foot-and-mouth vaccine was + 39.6%, year-on-year + 39.6%, pig ring vaccine was – 4.6%, year-on-year-21.5%. At present, the animal protection industry is at the bottom of the valuation. In the follow-up, we should actively pay attention to the research and development progress of new vaccines that are expected to drive the demand growth of the industry in the future. It is suggested to first pay attention to Pulike Biological Engineering Inc(603566) , which has strong independent research and development strength and is expected to be the first batch of Pulike Biological Engineering Inc(603566) , followed by Jinyu Bio-Technology Co.Ltd(600201) , which has P3 laboratory and the vaccine leader in the foot-and-mouth disease market, and has a complete production line of avian vaccines, And the Tianjin Ringpu Bio-Technology Co.Ltd(300119) , the frontier layout of pet product matrix.
Risk warning: the slaughter volume of pigs is lower than expected Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) price fluctuates sharply; The outbreak exceeded expectations.
