One week resumption:
This week, power equipment and new energy (CITIC level I) fell 6.56%, 2.37 percentage points behind the market. In terms of overall market performance, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 3.87%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fell 4.19%, and the gem index fell 6.66%. Among the sub sectors of power equipment, electrical equipment fell 4.61%, wind power fell 3.49% and photovoltaic fell 7.77%.
Photovoltaic:
1. It is expected that the tight supply and demand of silicon materials will be relieved in June, and the price of Chinese components is expected to rise in May. According to the statistics of the silicon industry branch, under the background of accelerating the progress of new release capacity of silicon wafers, the situation of short supply of silicon materials continues. The price of silicon materials has increased for 14 consecutive weeks, and the average transaction price of single crystal re feeding has increased by 0.72% to 253300 yuan / ton month on month. It is expected that the price of silicon materials will still have strong support in May, and the tension between supply and demand in June is expected to ease periodically; On the other hand, the price of silicon / battery has exceeded the high point in 2021. In the short term, under the influence of the epidemic, the logistics situation is severe, which affects the component shipment. Under the background of demand stimulation and upstream cost pressure, the component enterprises are more willing to increase the price. Pvinfolink expects that the component price of China’s centralized project is expected to rise slightly to 1.87-1.88 yuan / W in May, and the distributed price will maintain 1.9 + yuan / W.
2. In 2022q1, China’s newly added photovoltaic installed capacity is 13.21gw, and Europe’s photovoltaic demand is expected to maintain a high growth. According to the data of China electricity Union, in 2022q1, China’s newly added photovoltaic installed capacity increased by 148% year-on-year to 13.21gw. The delay of grid connection of some centralized projects and the high increase of distributed demand jointly promote the high growth of China’s photovoltaic installed capacity. On the other hand, according to levelten energy data, under the background of soaring global energy prices and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the price of European Renewable Energy Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) in 2022q1 increased by 27.5% year-on-year (up 8.6% month on month and has increased for four consecutive quarters month on month) to 57 euros / MWh, which reflects the strong demand for new energy installation in Europe on the one hand, and the price of European components is expected to further increase under the background of high PPA price.
3. In terms of investment: (1) the demand boom in 2022q1 is improving, pushing up the prices of products in all links. With the release of upstream capacity in Q2, the prices of the industrial chain are expected to decline, and the end of the interest rate increase cycle in the first stage is superimposed. At the same time, China accelerates the construction of new infrastructure (photovoltaic, etc.), the photovoltaic industrial chain ushers in better allocation opportunities. It is recommended to focus on the leading Jingke energy, Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) . (2) The price of some auxiliary materials may rise due to the release of demand, the price rise of raw materials, structural supply and demand shortage and other factors. It is recommended to focus on Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) , and pay attention to Luoyang Glass Company Limited(600876) . (3) Under the background of industrial chain game, the supply and demand situation of large-scale products is relatively good. 210 product leaders are recommended from bottom to top. At the same time, the semiconductor silicon wafer business has ushered in a high-speed development Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) . (4) Overseas demand and distributed photovoltaic demand will be released first in the process of module price decline, with emphasis on Jinko Power Technology Co.Ltd(601778) , Zhejiang Chint Electrics Co.Ltd(601877) .
Wind power:
1. Shandong Province has made it clear that it will subsidize offshore wind power projects, and the development of China’s offshore wind projects is expected to speed up. On April 1, the deputy director of Shandong Provincial Energy Bureau said that he would subsidize the “14th five year plan” offshore wind power projects completed and connected to the grid in Shandong Province from 2022 to 2024, which is the second province after Guangdong Province to explicitly subsidize the offshore wind projects; With the continuous decline of the bidding price of offshore wind turbines, the process of sea wind parity is expected to accelerate under the background of large-scale and domestic substitution; In the future, if the national level also continues to strengthen the development and approval of sea area projects under state control, we believe that we should pay attention to Dajin Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(002487) , Jiangyin Hengrun Heavy Industries Co.Ltd(603985) ; (2) Focus on Zhejiang Xcc Group Co.Ltd;(603667) , Luoyang Xinqianglian Slewing Bearings Co.Ltd(300850) ; (3) Under the logic of profit recovery: focus on Riyue Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(603218) sany heavy energy (to be listed).
Risk tips:
The progress of issuing policies is less than expected; The recovery of fan bidding price is lower than expected, and the price of raw materials in the industrial chain fluctuates; The investment and information construction of the State Grid are lower than expected, resulting in the risk of blocking the installation and landing.
