Market review: this week, the mechanical equipment index fell 5.76%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 4.19%, and the gem index fell 6.66%. Mechanical equipment ranked 20th in all 28 industries. Excluding negative values, the valuation level of the machinery industry is 20.5 (overall method). The top three sectors in the machinery industry this week are testing services, injection molding machines and photovoltaic equipment; The top three segments with year to date growth are oil and gas development equipment, instruments and meters and shipping equipment.
Zhou's concern: in March, the marginal growth rate of general equipment output weakened, and n-type battery chip equipment repeatedly won big orders
In March, the growth rate of manufacturing investment slowed down, and the marginal growth rate of general equipment output weakened, but it still maintained a high prosperity level. In the first quarter, China's economy was generally stable. In March, the downward pressure on the economy increased due to geopolitical factors and the rebound of the epidemic in many places across the country. From the perspective of fixed asset investment, China's real estate investment remained weak in the first quarter, and the growth rate of investment and new construction area of houses continued to decline sharply; Under the steady growth policy, infrastructure investment continued to make efforts, with a cumulative growth rate of 10.5% in March, and the monthly growth rate increased by 1.87 PCT compared with that from January to February. Dragged down by the recent epidemic on the supply and demand ends of the manufacturing industry and the efficiency of the supply chain, the cumulative growth rate of fixed asset investment in the manufacturing industry fell sharply in March, down 5.3pct month on month from January to February, but it still maintained strong resilience, with a cumulative growth rate of 15.6%. Driven by manufacturing investment, the output of general-purpose equipment such as machine tools and industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) etc. generally maintained rapid growth, and the marginal growth rate of single month in March weakened. In March, China's industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) output was 44322 units, an increase of 16.6% year-on-year; From January to March, the cumulative output was 102496 units, with a year-on-year increase of 10.2%; The output of metal cutting machine tools was 57900, with a year-on-year increase of 3.6%; From January to March, the cumulative output was 135300 units, with a year-on-year increase of 1.5%.
N-type cell devices have repeatedly won large orders, and major breakthroughs have been made in the orders of Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) , Shenzhen Hymson Laser Intelligent Equipments Co.Ltd(688559) photovoltaic devices. On April 15, 2022, Shenzhen Hymson Laser Intelligent Equipments Co.Ltd(688559) announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary Shenzhen Hymson Laser Intelligent Equipments Co.Ltd(688559) laser intelligent equipment (Jiangsu) Co., Ltd. won the bid for Jingke energy TOPCON laser micro loss equipment, with a bid winning amount of 1.067 billion yuan. On April 18, Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) announced that Reliance Industries of India signed a LOC agreement with its wholly-owned subsidiary, Singapore Maiwei, to purchase 8 complete lines of Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) heterojunction battery production equipment, with a capacity of 600MW / piece, a total of 4.8gw, and the total purchase amount exceeded 50% of the company's audited operating revenue in 2021. The demand of the photovoltaic industry remains high, and the production expansion of the new generation of high-efficiency batteries is accelerated. The reform opportunities will fully benefit the relevant photovoltaic equipment enterprises.
Investment suggestion: in the first half of the year, the machinery sector was affected by the high price of raw materials caused by Geopolitics on the one hand, and the overall pressure on demand and logistics affected by the epidemic on the other hand. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the main line of steady growth, benefit from the expansion of upstream price rise capital expenditure and steadily underestimate the investment opportunities of value targets, including oil service, coal machinery, mining machinery, etc. Industry leaders who are still optimistic about benefiting from the trend of the times for a long time. The key directions of the industry include photovoltaic equipment (equipment investment brought by the industrialization of n-type battery), equipment related to new energy vehicles (equipment investment in lithium battery, hydrogen energy, energy storage, charging and replacement), industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , industrial mother machine, specialized and special new and other subdivided fields.
Risk warning: covid-19 pneumonia epidemic situation is repeated; The degree of policy promotion is less than expected; The growth rate of manufacturing investment was lower than expected; Intensified industry competition, etc.
