Industry core view
Under the macro background of “steady growth”, the fundamentals of the real estate industry continue to stay at the bottom, and the marginal improvement policy continues. It is expected that there are still many favorable policies to be expected in the follow-up, and continue to be optimistic about the market performance of the real estate sector. It is suggested to pay attention to (1) property management companies with good fundamental performance; (2) High quality real estate enterprises with financial stability and background of central enterprises / state-owned enterprises; (3) Real estate enterprises with high-quality holding properties or transformation enterprises, or effectively form a virtuous capital cycle of “development +”.
Key investment points:
Last week’s market review: last week, the real estate index of shenwanyi industry fell 9.2%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 4.19%. Real estate is the industry with the largest decline in the market. Since 2022, the real estate industry has fallen by 0.746%, and the CSI 300 index has fallen by 18.77%, with significant relative gains.
Key policy highlights: (1) the central bank and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange jointly issued 23 measures to do a good job in epidemic prevention and control and financial services for economic and social development. Made it clear that we should improve financial services in the field of housing. Implement differentiated housing credit policies based on urban policies, reasonably determine the minimum down payment ratio and minimum loan interest rate of commercial individual housing loans within the jurisdiction, better meet the reasonable housing needs of home buyers, and promote the stable and healthy development of the local real estate market; (2) SASAC supports the platform of listed companies of central enterprises to make full use of financing means and M & A functions; (3) Suzhou, Changde, Yancheng, Longyan, Taizhou and other places raised the amount of provident fund loans; (4) Yinchuan, Shaoxing, Fuzhou and other places reduced the proportion of down payment; (5) Shaoxing relaxed purchase and sale restrictions; (6) Changsha, Wuxi, Changshu and other places have introduced housing subsidy policies; (7) Fu Linghui, spokesman of the National Bureau of statistics, said that the downward trend of commercial housing sales may be alleviated. With the implementation of urban policies in many places, the housing demand in some cities has been released and the decline in sales area has narrowed.
Industry fundamentals: sales decline, and the performance of the land market is still weak. From April 11 to April 17, the sales of commercial houses in 30 large and medium-sized cities fell 49.71% year-on-year, including 54.95% in the first line, 45.88% in the second line and 52.8% in the third line; The supply and construction of residential land in Baicheng fell by 61.2% year-on-year and 54.0% year-on-year since the beginning of the year; The transaction and construction area of residential land in Baicheng decreased by 36.6% year-on-year and 58.23% year-on-year since the beginning of the year; The premium rate of residential land in Baicheng was 2.4%, up 2.2 percentage points month on month. Last week, Ningbo and Nanjing completed the first batch of centralized land supply in 2022, and state-owned enterprises are still the mainstream of land acquisition.
Dynamics of key companies: Risesun Real Estate Development Co.Ltd(002146) significantly revised the performance, changing from the pre profit of 100 million to the maximum pre loss of 6 billion Grandjoy Holdings Group Co.Ltd(000031) business entered Guangzhou for the first time; Jindi Smart Services signed a contract with a hospital in Shenzhen to provide property services and comprehensive medical logistics services; The financing amount rebounded this week, and the first housing rental REITs among banks in China was successfully issued. The issuing enterprise was Beijing Capital Development Co.Ltd(600376) , which provided a reference for the subsequent development of rental housing.
Risk factors: the policy strength is less than expected, the industry fundamentals continue to decline rapidly, and the credit risk is higher than expected.
