Industry core view:
2022.4.182022.4.22: the decline of new power industry this week was - 6.90%, and the decline of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 in the same period was - 4.19%, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 2.71pct. It ranks 26th among Shenwan's 31 industry sectors.
Key investment points:
New energy vehicles: on April 19, the latest data from the Ministry of industry and information technology showed that as of the first quarter of 2022, the promotion of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles had exceeded the 10 million mark, reaching 10.33 million. In the first quarter, the cumulative production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.293 million and 1.257 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.4 times, and the market penetration reached 19.3%, an increase of 5.9 PCT over the whole year of 2021. At present, China Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile industry has entered a new stage of large-scale and rapid development, and the charging pile industry, as its infrastructure industry, has also ushered in vigorous development. In the first quarter of 2022, a total of 492000 charging piles were built in China, with a year-on-year increase of 3.6 times, including 85000 public piles and 407000 private piles, with a year-on-year increase of 1 and 5 times respectively. The new energy vehicle industry is developing rapidly. The short-term impact of the epidemic, the rise in the price of raw materials and the shortage of chips will not change the long-term good fundamentals. We are optimistic about the increasing penetration of new energy vehicles. At the same time, in the future, the batteries equipped with high-end models will be mainly high nickel ternary, while the lithium iron phosphate batteries equipped with low-end models have the advantage of low price. It is suggested to pay attention to the relevant cathode targets.
New energy power generation: in terms of photovoltaic, on April 20, the National Energy Administration released the statistical data of the national power industry from January to March. By the end of March, China's installed power generation capacity was about 2.4 billion kw, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%. Among them, the installed capacity of Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) power generation was about 320 million KW, an increase of 22.9% year-on-year. From January to March, the investment in power supply projects of major power generation enterprises in China was 81.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%. Among them, Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) power generation was 18.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 181%. The demand for photovoltaic is large. We expect the installed capacity to increase steadily in 2022. It is suggested to pay attention to the relevant targets of the photovoltaic industry chain. In terms of wind power, recently, China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) Inner Mongolia Baotou renewable energy comprehensive application Demonstration Zone No. 1500000 kW (phase II 300MW) wind turbine project was opened. A total of 7 complete machine manufacturers bid for the project. The lowest quotation is Shanghai Electric Wind Power Group Co.Ltd(688660) of 1530 yuan / kW. The average bidding price of the project is 1707 yuan / kW. Since the first quarter, the price of about 6.25mw wind turbines in the three northern regions has basically stabilized at 14001700 yuan /kw. This quotation is also in this range. Technological progress in the wind power industry has brought cost reduction higher than expected. It is suggested to pay attention to the wind power equipment sector.
Hydrogen energy: on the morning of April 22, Nanzhuang Town, Chancheng District, Foshan City signed a cooperation agreement with Guangdong new hydrogen power technology Co., Ltd. with a total investment of 1 billion yuan to build a hydrogen fuel cell industrial vehicle engine production base project. The project is expected to bring 10 billion yuan of market increment of hydrogen fuel cell industrial vehicles to Guangdong in the next 3-5 years. Hydrogen energy has a large growth space in the future. Green hydrogen will be vigorously developed in the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain, and fuel cell vehicles are important applications in the downstream. We expect that fuel cell vehicles will gradually increase in volume with the development of technology in the future. It is suggested to pay attention to the relevant targets related to the hydrogen energy industry chain, such as Beijing Sinohytec Co.Ltd(688339) ( Beijing Sinohytec Co.Ltd(688339) ), Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) ( Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) ).
Risk factors: the sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected; Safety risks of new energy vehicles; Affected by the epidemic, the opening of photovoltaic market was less than expected; Price fluctuation risk of raw materials; The approval and commencement of offshore wind power are not as expected; The wind power project has been approved and the grid connection is not as expected; The growth of photovoltaic installed capacity is lower than expected; The investment in power grid is less than expected.
