Industry core view:
Last week, the Shenwan retail trade index fell 3.31%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.56 percentage points. According to the social zero data released by the Bureau of statistics, the social zero in March was – 3.5% compared with the same period in 2021, of which the retail sales of gold, silver, jewelry and cosmetics were – 17.9% and – 6.3% year-on-year respectively. We believe that in the short term, the rebound of the epidemic exceeds previous expectations, and the recovery of the consumer market is also facing uncertainty. Suggestions: ① mother and baby: since the implementation of the three child policy, governments across the country have issued a number of birth incentive measures. It is expected that the birth rate is expected to boost in the future with the implementation of more relevant supporting measures and policies. It is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities of mother and baby racing track in advance; ② Cosmetics & Medical Beauty: under the beauty economy, there is a strong demand for cosmetics and medical beauty. Recently, a number of regulations related to cosmetics and medical beauty have been issued, and the industry is facing a reshuffle, which will benefit the leading companies of compliant cosmetics and medical beauty; ③ Gold and jewelry: the recent intensification of geopolitical friction has pushed the gold price higher, but the offline consumption scene is facing uncertainty due to the impact of the epidemic. In the medium and long term, the increasing penetration of daily consumption, gift giving, investment and other scenarios under the concept of “pleasing oneself” has driven the steady expansion of the industry scale. In addition, the epidemic has accelerated the industry integration in the past two years. Jewelry leading enterprises have actively seized the market by seizing channels, upgrading brands and developing new products, and are optimistic about gold jewelry leading enterprises.
Market review: last week (April 18-april 24), the Shanghai Composite Index fell 3.87%, the Shenwan retail trade index fell 3.31%, and the retail trade index outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.56 percentage points, ranking 11th in the rise and fall of Shenwan 31 primary industry indexes. Since the beginning of the year, the Shanghai Composite Index has fallen by 15.19%, and the commercial retail index has fallen by 14.36%. The Shenwan commercial retail index has outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.83 percentage points, ranking 10th among the 31 primary sub industries of Shenwan.
Industry data: ① social zero data: the total retail sales of social consumer goods in March was – 3.5% year-on-year, of which the retail sales revenue of goods was – 2.1% year-on-year and the catering revenue was – 16.4% year-on-year. Among the sub categories, the retail sales of gold, silver, jewelry and cosmetics of units above the quota were – 17.9% and – 6.3% year-on-year respectively. ② Raw material price data: last week, gold fell $42.70 to $193057/oz, and silver fell $1.51 to $24.14/oz.
Important announcements of listed companies: Huahan shares, Yixian e-commerce, Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) , Nanjing Cosmos Chemical Co.Ltd(300856) , Zhou Shengsheng, Guangzhou Ruoyuchen Technology Co.Ltd(003010) , Lancy Co.Ltd(002612) , Hangzhou Coco Healthcare Products Co.Ltd(301009) , etc. issue annual reports Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) , DEA shares, Guangzhou Ruoyuchen Technology Co.Ltd(003010) etc. issue quarterly reports; Main data of Yisi health announcement Shanghai Aiyingshi Co.Ltd(603214) issue a reduction announcement.
Important events in the industry: ① the State Food and Drug Administration issued the results of national medical device supervision; ② The global jewelry industry will reunite at jgw Singapore.
Risk factors: the risk of resurgence of epidemic, less than expected recovery of consumption and intensified industry competition.
