Shipping: this week, the CCFI composite index reported 310978 points, down 0.6% month on month, of which the US West Route reported 233696 points, down 0.7% month on month, and the European line reported 5082.9 points, up 0.3% month on month. The recent outbreak in China has superimposed the interest rate cut of the Federal Reserve and the geopolitical impact. The volume and freight rates have both fallen, and the profitability of the industry may enter the stage of stress test. However, we believe that there is no need to be overly pessimistic at the current time point. In 21 years, due to the owners’ cautious expansion of transport capacity, the supply and demand of the industry will continue to be mismatched in 22-23 years, and the overall profitability of the industry will remain at a high level. The current valuation has strong attraction.
Airport: the civil aviation industry will fight to the dark moment again. We expect the epidemic to subside as soon as possible and promote the recovery of demand. After two consecutive years of low growth in transport capacity, the transport capacity introduction planning of the three major airlines in the next few years is still relatively conservative. The continuous low growth in supply will create preconditions for the reversal of supply and demand. If the policy changes one day, the demand for civil aviation is expected to recover rapidly. We continue to be optimistic about the general direction of the reversal of civil aviation supply and demand after the impact of the epidemic subsides. Under the resonance stimulation of the continuous introduction of low transport capacity, ticket price reform and historical high seating rate, civil aviation performance is expected to reach a record high, and we continue to recommend sector industry investment opportunities. The traffic monopoly position and high-quality consumption scene of the hub airport gathering high net worth passengers have not fundamentally changed due to the epidemic. At present, due to the pressure on the performance of international passenger reduction, once the door is opened, the performance of the airport will be greatly improved. Recommend Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) , Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) .
Express delivery: affected by the blockade and prevention and control of the epidemic in many places, the business volume growth of express listed companies decreased significantly in March. With the orderly recovery of guaranteed supply logistics, the business volume damage of the express industry has narrowed in recent days. The impact of the epidemic is one-off, and the demand for short-term express delivery is more restrained than disappeared. We believe that after the recovery of the epidemic, the demand for express delivery is expected to rebound. Continue to recommend Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) , Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) , S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) and Zhongtong express.
Small and medium-sized stocks: recommend Jiangsu Shuangxing Color Plastic New Materials Co.Ltd(002585) , Hangzhou Honghua Digital Technology Stock Company Ltd(688789) , Zhejiang Natural Outdoor Goods Inc(605080) , with high performance from bottom to top.
Investment suggestion: the market is relatively weak this week, with all sub sectors of transportation falling, and the overall performance of defensive highway and railway sectors is relatively good. The high level of the epidemic in Shanghai has dropped slightly, and it is expected that the gradual decline of the epidemic will bring about the recovery of the travel sector. The first quarterly report of each company will be intensively disclosed next week. While paying attention to the performance of the quarterly report, we should continue to pay attention to the long-term fundamentals and industrial policy tracking. Recommendations for transportation include: Milkyway Chemical Supply Chain Service Co.Ltd(603713) Hangzhou Honghua Digital Technology Stock Company Ltd(688789) , Zhejiang Natural Outdoor Goods Inc(605080) , Joy Kie Corporation Limited(300994) .
Risk tip: the macroeconomic recovery is less than expected, the epidemic situation is repeated, and the oil price and exchange rate fluctuate violently
