The building materials sector fell more this week and lost the market. This week, the Bureau of statistics released economic data for the first quarter. GDP increased by 4.8% in the first quarter, and cement production decreased by 5.6% year-on-year in March. The real estate data is still in the doldrums. In March, China’s export volume of glass fiber yarn and products was 209600 tons, an increase of 48.30% year-on-year; The export value was 354 million US dollars, an increase of 47.39% year-on-year, and the export of glass fiber was still strong.
Plate fell and underperformed the market: this week, Shenwan building materials index closed at 6648.3 points, down 6.8%, underperforming Wande a. The industry’s average p / E ratio was 11.9 times, down 0.8 times from last week.
Key events of this week: 1 First quarter gdp27 02 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.8% year-on-year and 1.3% month on month; The national fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) was 10.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.3%. Infrastructure investment / real estate development investment increased by 8.5% / 0.7% respectively. In Q1, the newly started area / completed area of national real estate increased by – 17.5% / – 11.5% year-on-year respectively. The sales area of commercial housing was 310.46 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 13.8%; The sales volume of commercial housing was 2.97 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22.7%. 2. According to the glass fiber export data announced by Zhuo Chuang information, the export volume of China’s glass fiber yarn and products in March was 209600 tons, a year-on-year increase of 48.30%; The export value was 35.4 billion US dollars, an increase of 47.39% year-on-year. The export demand of glass fiber is still strong, and the toughness of roving may be further maintained.
The demand for cement is general, and the price rises and falls. This week’s price rise is mainly in Liaoning, Guangdong, Guizhou and some parts of Yunnan, with a range of 30-80 yuan / ton; The falling areas include Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Fujian and Chongqing, with a range of 10-50 yuan / ton. In the middle and late April, the demand performance of the national cement market was still weak, and the shipment rate of enterprises remained at the level of 6-80%. With the implementation of peak shifting production by enterprises in some regions, the rising pressure of inventory continued to ease, and the cement price maintained a volatile adjustment trend. Clinker and P · O42 this week 5、 P·S32. 5 powder prices were 410.7 yuan / ton, 472.1 yuan / ton and 453.9 yuan / ton respectively, down 3.7 yuan / ton, 0.3 yuan / ton and flat compared with last week. The mill operating rate and clinker storage ratio were 61.7% and 66.6% respectively, up 3.3pct and 0.2pct respectively compared with last week, and the clinker inventory pressure is still large.
The pressure on glass inventory continues, and the wait-and-see mood in the middle and lower reaches is strong: the average price of glass this week is 103.8 yuan / weight box, the number of days of inventory is 19.63 days, the price is 0.9 yuan / ton lower than last week, and the inventory is flat compared with last week. In the case of continuous downturn of real estate, there is a strong wait-and-see in the middle and lower reaches, and individual factories adjust slightly according to their own conditions. During the week, some restrictions in some areas of North and East China were lifted, and downstream processing plants must replenish goods, which still needs attention.
Glass fiber Market toughness is still strong: the alkali free yarn market is generally stable: this week, the quotation of most factories in the alkali free tank kiln roving market is mainly stable, but under the current demand performance is general, some factories have flexible transaction policies. Recently, the production and sales of tank kilns have not improved significantly. The middle and lower reaches purchase on demand, and the transportation in some areas is still limited, but most mainstream products are still on the sidelines for the time being.
Key recommendation
The cement industry recommends Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Tangshan Jidong Cement Co.Ltd(000401) , and it is suggested to pay attention to Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) ; Plastic pipe recommends ad shares and Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) , and it is suggested to pay attention to China Liansu; Waterproof recommendation Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) ; In the glass industry, the pharmaceutical glass faucet Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass Co.Ltd(600529) , with flexible volume and price, and the flat glass faucet Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) , with relatively low valuation at present, are the first to be promoted; Recommended by glass fiber industry China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) , Shandong Fiberglass Group Co.Ltd(605006) , Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials Co.Ltd(300196) ; Recommended water reducing agent Lets Holdings Group Co.Ltd(002398) .
Main risks of rating
Risk tip: the demand for glass fiber is less than expected, and the pace of production capacity is accelerated; The fiscal rhythm is still slow, and the real estate easing and infrastructure recovery are less than expected; Industry policy risk; Rising raw material costs
