Key investment points:
Market review: from April 18 to April 22, the media sector fell by 5.28%, while the Shanghai stock index, Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index and gem index rose or fell by – 3.87%, – 4.19% and – 6.66% over the same period. The media sector ranked 19th in the weekly rise and fall of CITIC’s primary industry category, and was located in the middle of the industry. All segments of the fine molecule sector fell, including Internet advertising and marketing, information search and aggregation, followed by radio and television and publishing, and Internet audio-visual and video fell relatively slightly in a single week
This week’s view:
According to the latest data, cinemas across the country have rebounded recently after experiencing a business rate of less than 50% for nearly a month. At present, they have recovered to more than 50%, and the number of screenings per week has also rebounded month on month. However, on the content side, after the withdrawal of Qingming films, a large number of films have announced the withdrawal of May 1st recently. At present, there are only Beijing Enlight Media Co.Ltd(300251) films “I really hate long distance love” and imported cartoon “villain alliance” that have not been changed. The lack of content caused by the epidemic and Cinema Management and control have caused great business pressure on cinema lines and content companies. In the process of Shanghai’s anti epidemic, it has repeatedly reiterated that it will unswervingly implement the “dynamic clearing” policy. It is expected that in the short term, more strict policies will be used to supervise offline entertainment consumption scenes such as cinemas. Under the huge operating pressure, it may accelerate the elimination rhythm of inefficient cinemas in China. The leading cinemas and film investment companies with business advantages and capital advantages have stronger anti risk ability, and the market share may be further improved. On the content side, the number of films withdrawn from the archives during May Day is large, the degree of competition is alleviated, and the low-cost films with qualified quality may get good benefits.
On April 11, the game version number was issued again. The suspension lasted 263 days, which was basically the same as that in 2018. The number of version numbers issued was only 45, which decreased significantly compared with the average number in 20182021. At present, on the supply side, the regulatory department is strictly controlling the quality, hoping to guide the formal development of the industry in the form of reduction and quality improvement, reduce disorderly competition, and the development orientation of high-quality products has not changed, Mainstream game companies have strong product R & D ability and compliance awareness, and can better adapt to the current regulatory framework. Therefore, the regulatory impact may be relatively small. The Chinese company will not speed up the pace of the game. Referring to the trend of the game sector after the release of the version number was stopped in 2018 and resumed in 2019, the core of promoting the market in the more medium and long-term stage is that the game companies that need to obtain the version number will convert their products into actual water and profits. It will take some time to confirm the improvement of the fundamentals
According to the data released by IDC, the global VR head display volume was 11.23 million units in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 92.1%. It is expected to reach 15.73 million units in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 43.6%.
At present, 5g network is entering a key stage of rapid development. The advantages of low delay, high speed and large capacity help VR / AR devices improve picture resolution, reduce Caton delay and dizziness, and experience more natural and comfortable, so that VR / AR can adapt to more application scenarios. At the same time, cloud computing can also help VR / AR terminals develop in the direction of lightweight, reduce hardware cost and further accelerate the penetration of VR / AR terminals. In the short term, the current VR and AR application scenarios have high certainty, fast landing speed and high degree of commercialization. The game field is still large-scale. At present, large-scale games and small and medium-sized games coexist in the field of VR games, and the competition pattern is uncertain. Even small and medium-sized game developers can break the game through differentiated and innovative products. Based on the core development logic that the content of the game industry is king, it is suggested to pay attention to game companies that have layout in the VR field through investment or self-research.
It is suggested to pay attention to the leading companies in the sub segment of the media sub segment: Perfect World Co.Ltd(002624) , Wuhu 37 Interactive Entertainment Network Technology Group Co.Ltd(002555) , G-Bits Network Technology(Xiamen)Co.Ltd(603444) , Wanda Film Holding Co.Ltd(002739) , Mango Excellent Media Co.Ltd(300413) , Guomai Culture & Media Co.Ltd(301052) , Beijing Enlight Media Co.Ltd(300251) . Risk warning: international political situation risk; The risk of repeated outbreaks and virus mutation; The tightening of regulatory policies exceeded expectations; Intensified market competition; Goodwill impairment risk; The quality of output content is lower than expected; The characteristics of project system lead to the fluctuation of the company’s performance
