Core view
\u3000\u30001. Zinc prices continued to rise, reaching a record high in recent five years. By April 22, 2022, the settlement price of SHFE zinc futures had reached 29000 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 33.09%, the highest price in the past five years. The spot settlement price of LME zinc was US $4515 / ton, up 54.62% year-on-year. The current price is also the highest in the past five years. Global inventory is running at a low level, and the tight pattern of supply and demand may continue. Since 2022, LME zinc inventory has continued to decrease. According to wind data, as of April 22, 2022, the total global inventory of LME zinc was 103300 tons, down 48.20% from the beginning of the year and 64.83% year-on-year. At present, the global inventory of LME zinc is at a historical low. Under the background of continuous low overseas inventory, the prosperity of zinc is expected to continue. The consumption of construction and automobile increased, and the consumption of zinc materials gained a strong driving force. Zinc is mainly used in construction and automobile fields. In terms of construction, according to wind data, in 2021, China’s cumulative housing construction area reached 9.754 billion square meters, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%; In the first quarter of 2022, the cumulative housing construction area in China was 8.063 billion square meters, which continued to rise year-on-year. In terms of automobile demand, according to wind data, China’s automobile sales reached 26.275 million in 2021, up 3.8% year-on-year. In the first quarter of 2022, China’s automobile sales reached 6.509 million, up continuously year-on-year. With the orderly progress of resumption of work and production, the consumer demand and consumption capacity of residents have been gradually improved, and the demand for housing and cars has been strong for a long time, driving the demand for zinc materials to rise. In terms of price, in the short term, the current zinc price is greatly affected by inventory removal, which is easy to rise but difficult to fall; In the medium and long term, the demand for zinc materials is strong driven by the consumption growth in the downstream construction and automobile fields, and the boom pattern is expected to continue.
\u3000\u30002. Over the past week, the prices of major non-ferrous metals rose or fell, including terbium oxide rose 12.2% and Comex silver fell 5.57%. As for terbium oxide, as of April 22, 2022, terbium oxide reported 14000 yuan / kg, up 12.2% from the previous week. The price rise of terbium oxide is mainly driven by the general rise of rare earth prices and the shortage of ionic ore extraction in China; COMEX silver, as of April 22, 2022, Comex silver futures closed at $24.3 / ounce, down 5.6% from the previous week. COMEX silver prices fell mainly due to the decline in the number of initial jobless claims in the United States last week, the increase in the resident employment rate, and the impact of interest rate hikes has emerged.
\u3000\u30003. The performance of the gold industry generally rose in the first quarter, and its future performance may continue to be bright. Last week, a number of Listed Companies in the gold industry released their first quarter reports, including Hunan Gold Corporation Limited(002155) , Zhongjin Gold Corp.Ltd(600489) , Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) , etc. Among them, Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) performance is particularly bright. In the first quarter of 2022, the company achieved an operating revenue of 13.481 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 315 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 84.49% and 195.62% respectively Hunan Gold Corporation Limited(002155) and Zhongjin Gold Corp.Ltd(600489) also achieved performance growth, with operating revenue of 5.831 billion yuan and 13.629 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth of 47.10% and 21.51% respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 94 million yuan and 494 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 26.45% and 2.48% respectively. In the context of the current high inflation level in the United States, the hedging ability of gold will continue to highlight. It is expected that with the continuous rise of gold price, the performance of relevant enterprises in the gold industry will continue to shine.
\u3000\u30004. Market review. In terms of sub sectors, all non-ferrous metal sub sectors fell. The top three sectors were lithium, nickel cobalt tin antimony, rare earth and magnetic materials, with declines of 10.5%, 9.3% and 9.0% respectively. In terms of individual stocks, the top three weekly gains were Dongguan Eontec Co.Ltd(300328) , Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) , Jiangsu Boqian New Materials Stock Co.Ltd(605376) , with weekly gains of 5.6%, 2.3% and 1.5% respectively; The top three weekly declines were Ningbo Boway Alloy Material Co.Ltd(601137) , Shandong Jintai Group Co.Ltd(600385) , Jinzhou Jixiang Molybdenum Co.Ltd(603399) , with weekly declines of 19.3%, 18.8% and 17.5% respectively.
Investment advice
Zinc prices continue to rise, and relevant production enterprises in zinc metal industry may benefit, such as Huludao Zinc Industry Co.Ltd(000751) , Yunnan Chihong Zinc & Germanium Co.Ltd(600497) , Yunnan Luoping Zinc&Electricity Co.Ltd(002114) , etc.
Risk tips
The epidemic risk is intensified, the construction site is less than expected, and the demand for cars is less than expected.
