This week (April 18, 2022-april 22, 2022): the real estate sector (SW) rose or fell by – 9.20%. In the same period, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and wandequan a indexes rose or fell by – 4.19% and – 4.76% respectively, and the excess return was – 5.02% and – 4.44% respectively.
Real estate fundamentals and high-frequency data: (1) real estate market: this week (April 16, 2022-april 22, 2022), the transaction area of new houses in 60 cities was 3139000 square meters, with a month on month increase of + 7.4% and a year-on-year increase of – 56.1%; In 2022, the cumulative sales were 58.562 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of – 46.4%; From April 1 to April 22, 2022, a total of 9.039 million square meters were traded, a year-on-year increase of -59.9%; The transaction area of second-hand houses was 1.232 million square meters, with a month on month ratio of – 1.9% and a year-on-year ratio of – 46.9%; In 2022, a total of 16.396 million square meters were traded, a year-on-year increase of – 43.6%; From April 1 to April 22, 2022, the cumulative turnover was 3.351 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of – 45.6%. The cumulative inventory of new houses in 16 cities was + 0.59% month on month and + 3.14% year on year; The decontamination cycle increased by 0.9 months month on month. The de urbanization cycles of first tier, second tier and third and fourth tier cities were 15.0, 17.1 and 29.9 months respectively, up 1.3, 0.5 and 1.0 months respectively compared with last week. (2) Land market: this week (April 18, 2022-april 24, 2022), the number of land supplied by 100 cities was – 57.6% month on month, with a year-on-year increase of – 70.7%; The construction area of supplied land was – 49.7% month on month and – 70.2% year-on-year. The construction area of land transaction in Baicheng was – 35.6% month on month and – 70.5% year on year; The transaction floor price was + 140.1% month on month and + 34.0% year on year; The land premium rate was + 2.4pct month on month and -23.9pct year on year.
Key policies: on April 18, the people’s Bank of China and the State Administration of foreign exchange issued the notice on doing a good job in epidemic prevention and control and financial services for economic and social development. The real estate sector required to increase support for high-quality real estate projects, implement all-round policies to broaden real estate credit, do not “one size fits all” for development loans, and maintain the stable and orderly delivery of real estate development loans. Since March, the relaxation of real estate has been further strengthened, from the previous reduction of interest rates and relaxation of provident fund to the relaxation of purchase and sales restrictions. The recent policy has been further expanded from the third and fourth tier to the second tier. This week, Suzhou, Yinchuan, Yancheng, Longyan, Taizhou Jiangyan district and other places introduced the relaxation policy of provident fund. On April 21, Suzhou issued a new policy on provident fund: for the first time, the personal quota was increased from 450000 to Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) , and the household quota was increased from 700000 to 900000 (this policy is not applicable to the Industrial Park temporarily). Since the second half of 2021, the property market in Suzhou has been cold. The relaxation of the accumulation fund and the relaxation of the purchase and sale restriction on April 11 (in terms of purchase restriction, the social security has been adjusted from 2 consecutive years to 2 consecutive years, without continuity; in terms of sale restriction, the sale restriction of second-hand houses has been changed from 5 years to 3 years), and the increase of the amount of provident fund loans is conducive to reducing the financial pressure of property buyers, promoting the expectation of property buyers from weak to strong, accelerating the replacement cycle, and driving the recovery of the new housing market, It reflects the strong will of the government to stabilize the property market.
Zhou’s view: in 2022, the policy warm wind blows frequently, and the relaxation of real estate expands from the third and fourth tier cities to the second tier. The strength is continuously strengthened, and even breaks through the purchase and sale restrictions. The economy is unstable and relaxed, and there are still high expectations for improvement in policies. The key to market recovery lies in the improvement of credit and liquidity problems of real estate enterprises on the supply side. Recently, the central bank and the CSRC, Nanjing and Kunming released signals to relax the supply of real estate funds. Although the epidemic has hindered the transmission of the relaxation policy, the relaxation effect is still accumulating, the stock price direction is still upward, and the industry opportunities are greater than individual stocks. In the medium and long term, with the contraction of venture real estate enterprises, the head company will get more opportunities for resource integration. Suggestions: (1) real estate development: Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Longhu group, China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , China overseas development; (2) Property management: Xuhui Yongsheng service, xinchengyue service development, poly property, China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) ; (3) Real estate agent: shell, Hubei Guochuang Hi-Tech Material Co.Ltd(002377) .
Risk tip: the relaxation of real estate regulation policy is less than expected; The industry continued to decline, and the sales were lower than expected; Industry credit risk continues to spread; The epidemic situation is repeated and develops beyond expectations
