Main views and investment suggestions this week
The epidemic broke out at many points, and the recovery process of the industry continued to be blocked. The number of newly confirmed cases and asymptomatic people in Shanghai in a single day remained at a high level. The epidemic situation in Beijing, Guangzhou and other places reappeared the signs of rebound. Beijing suspended the operation of “group tourism in Beijing” by travel agencies, and the overall recovery of the industry was disturbed by the epidemic situation. Looking forward to the upcoming May Day holiday, the rebound of the epidemic situation will be superimposed on strict epidemic prevention measures in various regions, and many inter provincial trains will be shut down. It is expected that the travel boom will decline, and the overall recovery of the tourism market will fluctuate greatly affected by the epidemic situation.
Work at home and study, setting off an upsurge of national fitness. Limited by the sealing measures in some cities, the popularity of live fitness at home has risen recently. Star Fitness tiktok Will Liu jitter live broadcast Fitness Day cumulative number of viewers over 100 million, real-time live broadcast between the number of 250400 tiktok, the number of fans shaking accounts personal accounts surge in the past month. The upsurge of live fitness has once again led to an increase in the attention of national fitness and sports equipment.
Investment suggestion: in the short term, the impact of the epidemic on the overall recovery of the tourism market is still significant, and the rebound of the epidemic and prevention and control policies around the country affect consumers’ travel confidence. It is estimated that the number of trips and consumption during the May Day holiday are lower than that in the same period last year. In the medium and long term, the situation of epidemic control and the R & D and landing process of covid-19 specific drugs determine the stabilization and rebound of the industry. We suggest paying attention to 1) the targets of leisure scenic spots focusing on performance restoration, such as China Cyts Tours Holding Co.Ltd(600138) , Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) , Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) , and having artificial leisure scenic spots around the first and second tier cities to meet the travel needs of tourists for short distance and border travel; 2) For example, China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) continues to play the role of guiding the return of consumption. Affected by the epidemic, the pace of adjustment is fast and the sales volume continues to grow significantly; 3) Targets at the bottom of the cycle, such as Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) , Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) are currently at the bottom of the hotel cycle, and their performance is significantly better than that of the previous year. They continue to develop medium and high-end hotels and improve the chain rate.
Market Review
Overall: the CSI 300 fell 4.19% to close at 401325, and the social service industry index fell 4.52%, 0.33 percentage points lower than the CSI 300 index, ranking 17th among the 31 first-class industries in Shenwan.
Sub sectors: the rise and fall of sub sectors of social service industry from high to low are education (- 4.19%), hotel catering (- 5.81%), scenic spots (- 6.53%) and comprehensive tourism (- 12.87%).
Individual stocks: Zhejiang Ssaw Boutique Hotels Co.Ltd(301073) led the rise with 3.4% and Xi’An Qujiang Cultural Tourism Co.Ltd(600706) led the decline with 20.27%.
Industry dynamics
1) the tourism industry continues to pick up: many countries in Southeast Asia reopened their borders, and tourism demand rose in response;
2) the camping heat continues to rise;
3) under the epidemic situation, the hotel’s dilemma has reversed.
Announcement of important listed companies (see the text for details)
Risk tips
The impact of the epidemic on the tourism industry exceeds the expected risk; Unexpected events or uncontrollable disaster risks.
