Core view
Compared with last week, the turnover of new houses increased this week, and the turnover of second-hand houses decreased. The number of new houses sold in 40 cities this week was 28000, up 19.1% month on month and down 48.3% year on year; The number of new houses sold in 16 large and medium-sized cities was 20000, up 36.2% month on month and down 44.2% year-on-year; 1、 The number of new houses sold in the second and third tier cities changed by 6.2%, 10.1% and 461.3% month on month respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 52.4%, – 46.4% and – 29.3% respectively. The number of second-hand housing transactions in 15 cities was 13000, down 1.9% month on month and 39.3% year-on-year; The number of second-hand housing transactions in 11 large and medium-sized cities was 12000, down 0.2% month on month and 36.2% year-on-year; 1、 The number of second-hand houses sold in the second and third tier cities increased by 3.0%, -5.4% and 29.0% month on month respectively, and the year-on-year growth rates were -29.0%, -41.3% and-24.9% respectively.
The inventory of new houses has decreased, and the decontamination cycle has increased compared with last week. The inventory of new houses in 15 cities was 1.028 million, up 0.3% month on month, and the decontamination cycle was 18.7 months, up 0.7 months month on month; The inventory of new houses in 8 large and medium-sized cities was 562000, up 0.5% month on month and 3.4% year-on-year. The decontamination cycle was 14.2 months, up 0.7 months month on month; The inventory of new houses in the first tier cities was 269000 units, up 0.1% month on month; the de stocking cycle was 14.0 months, up 1.2 months month on month; the inventory of new houses in the second tier cities was 205000 units, down 0.4% month on month; the de stocking cycle was 15.8 months, up 0.7 months on month; the inventory of new houses in the third tier cities was 89000 units, down 0.1% month on month; the de stocking cycle was 12.2 months, down 0.2 months on month.
Compared with the previous week, the overall land market increased both in volume and price, and the land premium rate increased. The number of all types of land sold in Baicheng was 213, with a month on month increase of 15.8% and a year-on-year decrease of 56.0%; The planned construction area of the land traded was 13.91 million square meters, an increase of 41.4% month on month and a year-on-year decrease of 42.9%; The total land transaction price was 17.9 billion yuan, an increase of 86.9% month on month and a year-on-year decrease of 56.3%; The average floor price of land traded was 1291 yuan / m2, up 32.3% month on month and 23.5% year-on-year; The land premium rate of Baicheng was 1.79%, up 70.5% month on month and down 93.7% year on year.
The issuance scale of credit bonds of real estate enterprises increased month on month, but still fell sharply year-on-year. This week, the total issuance of credit bonds in the real estate industry was 16.472 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 33.2% (previous value: – 44.0%), an increase of 100.9% month on month; The total repayment amount was 9.909 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 32.1% (previous value: – 73.7%) and a month on month increase of 38.1%; The net financing amount was 6.563 billion yuan. Its total issuance of Chinese enterprise credit bonds was 16.472 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.8% (previous value: – 37.6%) and a month on month increase of 100.9%; The total repayment amount was 8.146 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26.0% (previous value: – 73.8%) and a month on month increase of 59.3%; The net financing amount was 8.326 billion yuan. Private enterprises have not issued credit bonds for three consecutive weeks; The net financing amount is -2.06 billion yuan.
Investment advice
The data released by the Bureau of statistics this week once again confirmed the current downturn in the market and the negative growth of sales investment as scheduled. We believe that the policy adjustment in the next stage will be further strengthened, and the policy adjustment will gradually enter the stage of promoting demand improvement from relief. The cities introduced will gradually expand from third and fourth tier cities and weak second tier cities to more second tier and even strong second tier cities, and the intensity and pace of adjustment are expected to be further accelerated. This week, Nanjing lowered the mortgage interest rate again and shortened the lending cycle to the shortest week; Changshu will give a subsidy of 1% of the total purchase price for the purchase of the first self owned house; The purchase of new houses in the central urban area of Changde, Hunan Province will be subsidized by 50% of the deed tax actually paid; In addition, some banks in Qingyuan, Shaoguan, Heyuan, Meizhou, Yunfu and other cities cut mortgage interest rates by 10-40 basis points. In addition, this week, the central bank and the State Administration of foreign exchange issued 23 measures to strengthen support for the real economy. For real estate, the central bank mentioned for the first time in this round of policy loosening that “reasonably determine the minimum down payment ratio and minimum loan interest rate requirements for commercial personal housing loans within its jurisdiction”. However, unlike the reduction range of the down payment ratio uniformly specified by the central bank in 2008 and 16, this time there is no clear provision on the ratio, We believe that the subsequent reduction of the down payment ratio is still dominated by local adjustment. We can see from the statement of the central bank that the adjustment of the down payment ratio and housing loan interest rate is one of the local adjustment measures advocated at present.
From the perspective of sector investment, it is still a good configuration window period. We suggest paying attention to four main lines: 1) the leading real estate enterprises of central state-owned enterprises with nationwide layout have been boosted by valuation in the last stage, but will still enjoy the rising space brought by the beta Market: Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , Longhu group and China Resources Land; 2) Regional leading central state-owned enterprises and high-quality private enterprises, but the quality of cash flow and financial report is good: China Construction Development International, Yuexiu real estate, Midea real estate, Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) ; 3) After the policy becomes clearer, we can focus on the subject of elastic reversal: Xuhui holding group, Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , country garden. 4) At present, the real estate post cycle property sector with strong income determination and accelerated concentration, as well as the recent credit risk mitigation of related real estate enterprises and elastic reversal: Country Garden service, Xuhui Yongsheng service, poly property, Zhonghai property and xinchengyue service.
Risk tips
Real estate regulation continues to upgrade; Sales fell more than expected; Financing continued to tighten.
