Investment advice
This week’s view: this week’s market sentiment fluctuations have led to pressure on most industries, and the performance of the food and beverage sector is more rational. The large-scale outbreak in March had a great impact on social consumption, especially the catering industry. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the total retail sales of social consumer goods in March was 3423.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.5%. Among them, the catering revenue was 293.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.4%. Towards the end of April, there is still no inflection point in the national epidemic, control measures are generally tightened, and market concerns remain. This week, we combed the recent channel research, continued to track the improvement of the company’s fundamentals, and looked forward to the investment opportunities after the epidemic.
Baijiu: the mood of the sector is slightly callback within the week, which is under the pressure of the overall mood of the market. The recent epidemic in Shanghai has slowed down. We suggest that we continue to pay attention to the recovery of the consumption sentiment in the wake of the Dragon Boat Festival. 1) In terms of high-end liquor, Maotai has been sold in April, and has arrived in succession recently, with relatively low inventory; Since late March, puwu has gradually taken measures to stop goods and control prices and strengthen invoice price control. With the gradual digestion of inventory, the batch price has improved month on month. On the whole, we believe that the certainty of high-end wine is still strong and less affected by external fluctuations, so it is still the first choice. 2) In terms of secondary high-end, at present, the fundamental impact in the province is still small, the impact outside the province is decentralized, and the impact on East China and Northeast China is slightly higher. We believe that the secondary high-end is still a highly elastic target, and we suggest continuous attention. 3) In terms of real estate liquor, the mood rose this week, mainly due to: ① the base market is basically stable, has strong anti risk ability, and the growth drive does not rely on investment attraction; ② In the early stage of the epidemic, the turnover of Su liquor and Hui liquor slowed down, the recent marginal improvement of the epidemic in East China, and the compensatory needs such as the Dragon Boat Festival banquet are worth looking forward to; ③ It is highly defensive, with low valuation and high margin of safety. It is recommended to pay attention to underestimate the improvement leader.
Beer: the output of beer enterprises above Designated Size in China was – 10.3% year-on-year in March and – 1.5% year-on-year from January to March. Looking forward to April, the probability of Tsing beer improved month on month compared with March, but the degree is not necessarily great: 1) although the epidemic situation in Shandong improved in April, the epidemic situation in Shaanxi, Shanghai and Hebei repeated; 2) The impact of the epidemic in many places appeared in mid March, and the affected time in April was longer than that in March. We preliminarily estimate that the sales volume of Tsingtao beer from January to April may decline or about the median single digit. Assuming that retaliatory consumption is not considered, the demand will completely return to the 19-year level from May to December, and the cumulative sales volume of the whole year may be flat. It is suggested to pay attention to the progress of epidemic prevention and control in peak season and have long-term configuration value.
Dairy products: the disturbance of the epidemic situation has a certain impact on the terminal sales and logistics transportation of Yili and Mengniu, but relatively speaking, the anti risk ability of dairy enterprises is strong, and the demand outlook remains the same. We expect Yili Q1 pure milk to increase by about 10%, anmuxi medium and high single digits, Jindian to increase by 15% – 20%, and the overall growth is about 12%.
Food synthesis: we believe that the food synthesis sector can grasp three main lines: 1) due to base pressure and repeated epidemics, Q1 is the low point of performance growth of most food companies. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the subsequent marginal improvement of fundamentals and have a certain elastic target. 2) Under the catalysis of the epidemic, the demand for goods stored at home has increased significantly, which is good for some snack foods and C-end quick-frozen products. 3) This year, some companies have the potential of fundamental reform. After 21 years of adjustment and polishing, they are expected to release elastic targets in 22 years, such as Gan yuan. At present, it is suggested to pay attention to the progress of their new product distribution and subsequent investment promotion.
Condiment: compared with 2021q2, the pressure of condiment channel de inventory and community group purchase is weakened this year, and the price increase will be fully implemented. However, the cost of some raw materials (such as soybean, oil, molasses, etc.) remains high, and the tightening of epidemic control has a greater impact on demand. Whether Q2 performance can be repaired as scheduled still needs to pay close attention to the inflection point of the epidemic. Looking forward to the second half of the year, after the epidemic, the catering end will usher in a supplementary rise. Q3 is the new production season of raw materials. With companies actively tapping the potential, increasing efficiency and cautious investment, the pressure on the cost end is expected to decline. At present, the industry valuation has been adjusted to a reasonable range. It is suggested that the short-term layout cost should be greatly improved, and the defensive target of C-end benefit during the epidemic is Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) .
Risk warning: macroeconomic downside risk / continuous and repeated epidemic risk / regional market competition risk.
