Temperature control is an important guarantee for the safe and economic operation of energy storage
Temperature control is the key to ensure the operation of energy storage in a suitable temperature and humidity environment and avoid thermal runaway and safety accidents;
Temperature control is related to important performance indexes such as battery capacity failure and life attenuation, which affects the economy of the whole life cycle of the energy storage system;
With the development of energy storage system towards large capacity and high rate, the heat production of energy storage system will continue to rise, and the demand for temperature control is expected to continue to increase.
The permeability of liquid cooling technology in energy storage and temperature control is expected to continue to increase
Energy storage and temperature control technology is mainly air cooling and liquid cooling, and heat pipe and phase change are under research: forced air cooling technology is mature, and air duct design is the key point; Liquid cooling has better heat dissipation performance, and the customized design of flow channel is the difficulty; Heat pipe and phase change are in the research stage and have not been used in battery energy storage system.
At this stage, the market penetration of air cooling is high, and the promotion of liquid cooling products is strengthened: benefiting from better technical economy, higher reliability and low requirements for energy storage and refrigeration power in the initial stage, air cooling occupies a high penetration rate at present. However, mainstream enterprises such as Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Byd Company Limited(002594) and others have begun to strengthen the promotion of liquid cooling products.
The permeability of liquid cooling is expected to be improved, and air cooling still has a place: the selection of energy storage and temperature control technology is the result of comprehensive consideration of refrigeration power demand, project cost sensitivity, battery pack design, energy storage operation environment and other factors, rather than simply considering cooling performance, so air cooling still has a place. Driven by factors such as improved energy storage profitability, increased demand for large-scale energy storage such as peak shaving and frequency modulation, and attention to the economy of the whole life cycle, the liquid cooling permeability is expected to increase.
Multiple growth tracks jointly promote the continuous growth of temperature control industry
Temperature control technology is of the same origin, and energy storage and temperature control enterprises generally start from other tracks: energy storage is still in the early stage, and energy storage and temperature control enterprises start from other tracks, mainly precision temperature control enterprises, new energy vehicle temperature control enterprises and industrial temperature control enterprises.
In terms of energy storage and temperature control, large-scale energy storage is the main track of energy storage and temperature control: large-scale energy storage is the key to the large-scale development of energy storage, which is expected to maintain a high proportion. Large energy storage has the characteristics of large capacity and complex operating environment. It has higher requirements for temperature control system and is expected to increase the proportion of liquid cooling. The development of industrial and commercial energy storage is driven by economy, so it is necessary to configure temperature control system to solve the problem of heat dissipation; Household storage is mainly used to save household electricity expenses. It has the characteristics of small capacity, low utilization frequency and relatively small demand for temperature control.
Multiple growth tracks jointly promote the sustainable growth of temperature control industry (Continued)
In terms of IDC temperature control, "East digital West computing" adds more power to the industry, and low pue promotes the improvement of liquid cooling penetration rate: the Internet and cloud computing promote the large-scale development of IDC, "East digital West computing" adds more powerful power, the temperature control energy consumption of data center is high, and temperature control energy saving is the key to reduce pue. Air cooling is still the leading technology, but liquid cooling is expected to gradually have better full life cycle economy and help its penetration continue to improve.
In terms of temperature control of 5g base station, the growth space of 5g base station is large, and the high heat dissipation promotes the high increase of temperature control demand: the penetration rate of 5g users continues to increase, the scale of 5g base station continues to grow and the growth space is large, the power consumption of 5g base station is far greater than 4G, and the high heat dissipation brings the rapid growth of temperature control demand. At present, air cooling is the main temperature control technology of 5g base station. Reducing energy consumption of 5g base station has become a trend, which is expected to gradually drive the improvement of liquid cooling permeability.
In terms of temperature control of new energy vehicles, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is increasing, and liquid cooling has become the mainstream: the scale of new energy vehicles is gradually expanding, the penetration rate is rising, the power battery is greatly affected by temperature, and the battery temperature control drives the value of thermal management of new energy vehicles to increase. Liquid cooling has become the mainstream temperature control technology of new energy vehicles. Vehicle enterprises have higher requirements for battery heat dissipation, and the penetration rate of liquid cooling is expected to continue to rise.
Calculation of temperature control market space
Calculation of market space of electric energy storage and temperature control: it is estimated that the global electric energy storage and temperature control market will reach 1.762 billion yuan in 2022, of which air cooling and liquid cooling account for 67.56% and 32.44% respectively. The scale of air cooling and liquid cooling is expected to reach 4.69 billion yuan in 2025, accounting for 4.63% of the global market, respectively. From 2021 to 2025, the global power energy storage and temperature control market scale CAGR reached 103.65%.
Calculation and results of other track temperature control market space: in 2025, IDC, 5g base station, new energy vehicle and other related track temperature control markets will total 244591 billion yuan; From 2021 to 2025, CAGR will reach 15.19%.
Analysis on investment ideas of energy storage and temperature control industry
Energy storage and temperature control has a small stock and a large growth rate, which is an important growth pole of the temperature control industry: from the stock, according to our calculation, compared with the precision temperature control, new energy vehicle temperature control and industrial temperature control industries, the energy storage and temperature control industry is in the early stage of development, so the stock of energy storage and temperature control is small. The market scale in 2021 is about 788 million yuan, accounting for only 0.54%. From the perspective of growth rate, the CAGR of energy storage and temperature control is the largest from 2021 to 2025, which is expected to reach 103.65%, far exceeding the development speed of temperature control in other industries, and the proportion of market scale will continue to increase, reaching 9.1 billion yuan by 2025, accounting for 3.59%, which is an important growth pole of temperature control industry.
In the short term, the energy storage and temperature control has the first mover advantage, and in the medium term, the customization ability is expected to move towards standardization in the long term: in the short term, enterprises benefit from the first mover advantage, and the technical similarity and portability determine the speed of energy storage and temperature control. In the medium term, the standardization of the energy storage system is low, the application environment is complex, and the corresponding temperature control customization is high. The customization ability depends on the richness of the product series, the R & D and design ability of the control system, the integrated scheme ability, overseas customer service and other factors. In the long run, the pre meter energy storage such as peak shaving and frequency modulation is expected to maintain a high proportion, and the cost sensitivity is high, so the demand for large-scale cost reduction is more urgent; Moreover, there are few categories of energy storage according to physical characteristics, which is conducive to standardization. Therefore, the energy storage system is expected to achieve large-scale cost reduction through standardization and promote the standardization of energy storage and temperature control links.
Investment suggestion: the high growth of global electrochemical energy storage is driving the rapid development of energy storage and temperature control. The proportion of liquid cooling temperature control technology superimposed with high value is increasing rapidly. The growth rate of energy storage and temperature control is expected to further exceed the overall growth rate of the energy storage industry. Based on this, we give the "recommended" rating of energy storage and temperature control industry. In addition, the short-term volume of energy storage is small, so we should pay attention to the contribution of other high growth temperature control businesses other than enterprise energy storage. It is suggested to focus on Shenzhen Envicool Technology Co.Ltd(002837) , Sanhe Tongfei Refrigeration Co.Ltd(300990) , Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech Co.Ltd(300499) , Songz Automobile Air Conditioning Co.Ltd(002454) .
Shenzhen Envicool Technology Co.Ltd(002837) : the company's energy storage business started early, accumulated profound product technology, and had significant first mover advantages. The ability of "customization + standardization" has stabilized the company's medium and long-term leading position.
Sanhe Tongfei Refrigeration Co.Ltd(300990) : the company has rapidly laid out its high refrigerating capacity product series and has cooperated with many customers. At this stage, the energy storage business is small but flexible.
Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech Co.Ltd(300499) : at present, there are energy storage products with outstanding customization and standardization ability. It is expected to open the market in the medium term, and the high growth of power battery temperature control business is worth looking forward to.
Songz Automobile Air Conditioning Co.Ltd(002454) : the technology is mainly liquid cooling. It has become a supplier of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , prospective energy storage and temperature control. With the increase of liquid cooling permeability, it will benefit in the medium term.
Risk warning: downstream demand is less than expected; The application of liquid cooling technology is not as expected; The competition pattern intensifies; Technical iteration exceeds expectations; The calculation has certain subjectivity; Focus on the uncertainty of the company's future performance.
