\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 009 Miracle Automation Engineering Co.Ltd(002009) )
[key points of investment]
The company released its annual report for 2021. During the reporting period, the company achieved an operating revenue of 3.78 billion yuan (year-on-year + 5.2%), a net profit attributable to the parent company of 150 million yuan (year-on-year + 146.8%), and a net profit not attributable to the parent company of 88 million yuan (year-on-year + 1819.8%); Among them, in the fourth quarter, the company realized an operating revenue of 1.02 billion yuan (year-on-year – 2.4%, month on month – 6.7%), a net profit attributable to the parent company of 04 million yuan (year-on-year – 48.2%, month on month – 94.1%), and a net profit not attributable to the parent company of – 39 million yuan. Meanwhile, based on 379 million shares, the company distributed a cash dividend of 0.3 yuan (including tax) to all shareholders for every 10 shares.
The profits of other businesses contracted, and the company’s performance growth was boosted by the lithium battery cycle sector. The core subsidiary jintaige achieved a revenue of RMB 990 million (year-on-year + 144%) and a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 220 million (year-on-year + 656%). On the one hand, it was mainly due to the improvement of production capacity and recovery rate. In 2021, the company expanded its production and technological transformation. The output of cobalt increased from 1400 gold tons in 2020 to 1887 gold tons in 2021, the output of nickel increased from 592 gold tons to 1024 gold tons, and the output of lithium carbonate increased from 1150 gold tons to 1792 gold tons. At the same time, the average metal recovery rate of nickel, cobalt and manganese of the company has reached 98%, and the average recovery rate of lithium has reached 85%, which is at the leading level in the industry. On the other hand, the prices of nickel, cobalt and lithium carbonate rose sharply in 2021, which improved the profitability of the company.
In 2022, lithium prices remained high and capacity continued to expand, supporting the rapid growth of performance. According to the pricing model of ternary waste, the rising price of lithium carbonate will lead to the expansion of the company’s profits. We predict that the lithium price will remain high in 2022, and the profitability of the company’s battery recycling business will remain at a high level. At the same time, the company will strengthen capacity construction. The lithium battery recycling technology transformation and expansion will be put into operation in the second quarter. In 2022, the capacity of cobalt, manganese and nickel will be 9000 gold tons and the capacity of lithium carbonate will be 4000 tons; In 2023, 12000 gold tons of cobalt, manganese and nickel and 5000 tons of lithium carbonate will be formed. In addition, the company plans to build a 50000 ton lithium iron phosphate production line, which is expected to be put into operation in September 2023. By the end of 2023, the recovery capacity of ternary and iron lithium waste batteries will be 50000 tons respectively.
Make use of the collaborative advantages of the automobile industry chain to build recycling channel barriers. In the competition of battery recycling industry, stable and high-quality battery waste sources will become one of the core elements of competition among enterprises. The company’s main business in history is deeply rooted in the automobile industry chain and maintains a good cooperative relationship with the whole vehicle. In the future, as the main body responsible for battery recycling, the company will cooperate with automobile enterprises to build battery recycling channels, which can give full play to the synergistic advantages. In addition, the company cooperates with automobile enterprises and social traders to establish recycling bases in key cities across the country, which further ensures the stability of the company’s supply of waste batteries in the future and further establishes its channel advantages.
[investment suggestions]
The first batch of power batteries in China will soon enter the retirement stage, and the lithium battery recycling market will usher in a period of rapid development. The lithium battery recovery business of the company is in the leading position in the industry: at the technical end, the average recovery rate of nickel, cobalt and manganese metal of the company reaches more than 98%, and the recovery rate of lithium carbonate reaches 85%; On the channel side, the company’s historical main business is deeply rooted in the automobile industry chain, forming a good cooperative relationship with automobile enterprises. Recently, it has jointly built a recycling base with automobile enterprises and social traders to further consolidate its channel advantages. On this basis, the company accelerated production capacity construction and laid the foundation for subsequent performance growth. We expect the company to realize operating revenue of 4.541 billion yuan, 5.574 billion yuan and 6.932 billion yuan respectively from 2022 to 2024, net profit attributable to parent company of 372 million yuan, 508 million yuan and 620 million yuan, EPS of 0.98 yuan, 1.34 yuan and 1.64 yuan, corresponding to current PE of 17 times, 12 times and 10 times, and give “overweight” rating.
[risk tips]
The progress of capacity expansion is less than expected;
There is uncertainty in the trend of metal prices.
