\u3000\u30 Beijing Telesound Electronics Co.Ltd(003004) 13 Mango Excellent Media Co.Ltd(300413) )
The company announced the financial statements of 2021 and the first quarter of 2022:
1) in 2021, the revenue reached 15.356 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.64%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.114 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.66%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non-profit was 2.060 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 11.57%;
2) in 2022q1, the revenue was 3.124 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22.08%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 507 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 34.39%.
Comments:
Due to multi factor disturbance, the performance of 2021q4 and 2022q1 is under pressure, but the overall profit margin is relatively stable. 1) By quarter, the net profit of 2021q1-2022q1 company was 773 million, 678 million, 529 million, 134 million and 507 million respectively, with an increase of 61.2%, 8.7%, 4.0%, 63.8% and 34.4% respectively. Due to the influence of industry content supervision and Qinglang movement, the performance of some programs of 2021q4 company was delayed and declined; The performance decline in 2022q1 was mainly due to the impact of the epidemic on the content production progress and the delay in the scheduling of key variety shows; 2) In terms of profit margin, in 2021, the comprehensive gross profit margin was 35.49% (+ 1.39pct) and the net profit was 13.77% (- 0.36pct); 2022q1 comprehensive gross profit margin 35.55%, net profit 16.23%.
The core business (advertising + member + operator business) grew steadily. In terms of business, mango TV Internet video business (advertising + member + operator business), the core business, maintained steady growth in 2021, with an operating revenue of 11.261 billion (YoY + 24.3%) and a gross profit margin of 43.6% (+ 2.9pct).
The advertising revenue was 5.45 billion (YoY + 32%), with a strong growth, mainly due to the new high investment volume of head variety show, and the theater effect brought about the increase of the value of drama advertising;
Member income was 3.69 billion yuan (YoY + 13%), and the number of effective members at the end of the year reached 50.4 million, with a year-on-year increase of 39.5%. However, the customer unit price decreased significantly. Arppu / year decreased from 119 yuan in 2020 to 85.2 yuan, which is due to strong promotion efforts. Follow up attention will be paid to the member price trend of the platform;
The operator's revenue is 2.12 billion (YoY + 27%), which has a high profit margin. The deepening cooperation between the company and China Mobile (large screen business, 5g innovation business, etc.) will have a positive impact on the operator's business;
The revenue of content e-commerce is 2.157 billion (YoY + 2%), and Xiaomang e-commerce is expected to enter the development stage in 2022. According to the announcement, Xiaomang in the strategic cultivation period reached the dau target of 1 million in 2021, and the income end assessment of Xiaomang will be increased in the future.
2022q2 heavy content is intensively launched, which is expected to drive the gradual repair of performance. 1) In terms of variety, according to mango investment promotion fair, the total number of large-scale variety shows and variety shows is higher than that in 2021. Among them, the annual blockbuster new comprehensive "sound is alive" was broadcast on April 24. The variety show is a special gift Festival jointly created by mango TV, TVB and Hunan Satellite TV to celebrate the 25th anniversary of Hong Kong's return. The guest lineup is strong, including Lin Zixiang, ye Qianwen, Li Keqin, Lin Xiaofeng, Yang Qianyi, Li Jian, Coco Lee, Mao Buyi Zhou Bichang et al; "Big detective 7" is on the air and continues to dominate the list. According to the current broadcasting progress, half of the whole season will be broadcast in Q2 (7-12 cases); Big IP "sister 3 riding the wind and waves" is being recorded and is expected to go online in Q2; Other ACE variety shows such as "yearning for life 6" (fixed on April 29), "brother 2" and "escape from the chamber of Secrets 4" will be launched one after another. 2) In terms of drama series, mango TV currently has 29 film and television production teams and 34 strategic studios of "Xinmang plan". Under the condition of the overall contraction of the long-term video industry, mango expands against the trend and continues to increase investment in the drama end. Monsoon theater is getting better and better. In 2022, the drama series has abundant reserves, and the performance of "Shangshi" in Q1 is excellent. In the follow-up, there will be a storm on the fence, juvenile school 2, Qianqiu order and extraordinary doctor "Long river in the world" and other key dramas will be broadcast one after another.
Investment suggestion: mango has the media platform attribute + content self-made gene, has outstanding innovation ability in the variety field, and pays attention to the effect of the subsequent launch of key variety shows and dramas on advertising, investment promotion and membership promotion. Mango is laying out new businesses such as virtual digital people and digital collections. We are optimistic about the next round of IP incubation and commercialization in the meta universe era. According to our stock selection logic, mango is at the forefront of subdivided industries, due to its own IP and strong ability of its own operation, and has prominent advantages in the next round of competition. We expect the net profit of the company from 2022 to 2024 to be RMB 2.57/31.3/3.64 billion respectively, the corresponding EPS is RMB 1.37/1.67/1.95, the corresponding PE is 21 / 17 / 15x, the valuation of 30x in 2022 is given, the corresponding target price is RMB 41, and the "Buy-A" rating is maintained.
Risk tip: the industry policy supervision is becoming stricter, the performance of content broadcasting is lower than expected, the growth rate of platform user scale is lower than expected, and the expansion of new businesses such as e-commerce and offline entertainment is lower than expected. (the above relevant data comes from the company's announcement and mango investment promotion meeting)
