\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 984 Qingdao Sentury Tire Co.Ltd(002984) )
Event: the company released the first quarterly report of 2022. In 2022q1, it achieved a revenue of 1.447 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 21.12% and a month on month increase of + 10.29%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 233 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 2.66% and a month on month increase of + 28.73%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction was 230 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of – 8.04% and a month on month increase of + 125.49%.
The company’s profit margin reversed at the bottom. In 2022q1, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 22.53%, an increase of 3.65 percentage points over 2021q4; The net profit margin of sales reached 16.11%, an increase of 2.36 percentage points over 2021q4, and the net profit margin of sales reached a new high since the second quarter of last year. We believe that the company’s profitability has reversed at the bottom, mainly due to: 1) the tension of shipping capacity tends to ease, and the company’s operating rate remains at a high level. 2) China’s export sea freight decreased significantly. Since 2022, China’s export container freight rate index has been reduced for several consecutive weeks. At present, the comprehensive, US western and European route indexes are – 13.3%, – 14.9% and – 13.2% respectively compared with the highest point at the beginning of the year. 3) Raw materials are relatively stable + export capacity is repaired, and the price transmission of the company is smooth.
Against the background of rising raw material prices, the company still achieved a month on month increase in gross and net profit margins. According to wind statistics, the average prices of 22q1 China’s natural rubber (CIF Qingdao Port International Co.Ltd(601298) ), synthetic rubber (styrene butadiene rubber) and carbon black were 2123.5 US dollars / ton, 13367 yuan / ton and 8879 yuan / ton respectively, with a month on month ratio of + 6.2%, + 16.8% and – 1.8% respectively. In this context, the company still achieved the month on month improvement of profit margin. We believe that the main reason is that the continuous improvement of downstream demand and transportation capacity gives the company room for cost transmission. The single tire revenue of 2021h2 company was 6.5% higher than that of 2021h1. Meanwhile, according to the official account of “tire business”, China’s tire companies continued to raise their prices from February to May this year. We judged that the company achieved a profit center upgrade through price adjustment.
The second phase of Thailand has been basically completed, and the Spanish factory has been steadily promoted. According to the company’s disclosure, the second phase of the Thai plant has been basically completed and is expected to be put into operation on a large scale this year, which will contribute to important performance increment. At the same time, the company is accelerating the construction of factories in Spain. After the completion of the project, it is expected to become the first smart tire factory of Chinese tire enterprises in European and American developed countries. We predict that the total tire production capacity of the company will exceed 45 million by 2025, double the current production capacity of 22 million.
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 1.34 billion yuan in 2024x-1.25 billion yuan in 2026, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 1.87 billion yuan in 2026. Maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the project construction lags behind the expectation; Changes in tariff barrier policies; The price of raw materials fluctuates violently
