\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 746 Jiangsu Sopo Chemical Co.Ltd(600746) )
The performance slightly exceeded expectations. The proposed dimethyl carbonate project opened up growth space and maintained the “buy” rating
According to the company’s performance report, Q1 company achieved an operating revenue of RMB 2.073 billion in 2022, a year-on-year increase of + 23.44%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 408 million, a year-on-year increase of – 25.30% and a month on month increase of + 62.15%. In Q1 2022, the company finished the maintenance of acetic acid plant and the product sales recovered. Meanwhile, the acetic acid price remained relatively high, the coal price decreased month on month, the company’s acetic acid profit was still high, and the performance slightly exceeded expectations. We maintain the company’s profit forecast from 2022 to 2024. It is estimated that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company will be 2.045 billion yuan, 1.981 billion yuan and 1.867 billion yuan respectively, and the EPS will be 1.75, 1.70 and 1.60 yuan respectively. The corresponding PE of the current stock price is 7.6, 7.9 and 8.4 times. The company plans to invest in the construction of 200000 tons of dimethyl carbonate project to open up future growth space and maintain the “buy” rating.
In 2022, the cost side and both supply and demand sides of Q1 acetic acid industry were under pressure, and the company’s profit fell year-on-year
According to the company’s announcement, in 2022, the average purchase price of coal excluding tax of Q1 company was 963 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of + 53.80% and a month-on-month increase of – 30.49%. The cost of acetic acid increased significantly year-on-year. The average sales price excluding tax of the company’s acetic acid was 4418 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of – 1.25% and a month on month increase of – 26.43%. Q1 Guangxi Huayi 700000 tons of acetic acid was put into operation, and the industry supply increased month on month and year on year. Affected by large-scale activities and Spring Festival factors, the downstream operating rate is insufficient, the demand is under pressure, and the price of acetic acid decreases month on month. At present, affected by the epidemic, the downstream demand is still weak, which affects the logistics and transportation. The acetic acid inventory is at a historical high, and the price is under pressure. However, since 2021, the external demand for acetic acid has been strong, and there is little new capacity in 2022. If domestic demand and transportation recover in the future, acetic acid is still expected to rise. With the consolidation of Dongpu new materials, the volume and price of caustic soda of Q1 company increased year-on-year, contributing to the performance increment of the company.
The company plans to invest 2.181 billion yuan to build a project with an annual output of 200000 tons of dimethyl carbonate, open up the future growth space, enrich product types and expand the new material industry. Polyester technology, a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company, plans to invest 2.181 billion yuan to build a project with an annual output of 200000 tons of dimethyl carbonate, including 100000 tons of industrial grade dimethyl carbonate and 100000 tons of electronic grade dimethyl carbonate. The construction period of the project is expected to be 30 months. At the same time, the company’s fixed raising and investment project is expected to be completed within 2022. In the future, it will help the company make up the production capacity of syngas and methanol, give further play to the production capacity of acetic acid and reduce the cost of acetic acid. In the future, with the fixed raising investment project and dimethyl carbonate project put into operation, the profitability of the company will further grow, and we are firmly optimistic about the long-term growth of the company.
Risk tips: the construction progress of the project is not as expected, the product price has fallen sharply, the macro-economy has declined, etc
