\u3000\u30 Chongqing Baiya Sanitary Products Co.Ltd(003006) 36 Jiangxi Synergy Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300636) )
Event: the company released its 2021 annual report, and achieved an operating revenue of 592 million yuan in 2021 (+ 35.99%, year-on-year growth rate in brackets, the same below); The net profit attributable to the parent company is 81.12 million yuan (+ 15.80%); Deduct 79.19 million yuan (+ 17.72%) of net profit not attributable to parent company and 131 million yuan (+ 64.04%) of net operating cash flow.
The volume of domestic sales is good, and the cdmo business maintains a high growth rate: from the perspective of business, 2021 is affected by adverse factors such as the rise in the price of raw materials, the appreciation of RMB and export transportation, and gabapentin is in a large-scale period after the technical transformation. The growth rate of net profit is lower than that of revenue, and the performance is generally in line with expectations. In 2021, the company sold 182 million yuan (+ 119.9%) in China, benefiting from the rapid and large-scale production of celecoxib and tegrilol in China. The domestic sales revenue accounted for 30.7%, realizing double-line sales at home and abroad. CMO / cdmo business achieved a revenue of 90.44 million yuan (+ 59.7%), and the high growth rate came from the large-scale volume of three intermediate projects. In addition, many varieties are advancing rapidly.
The orderly promotion of the company’s new product pipeline is the cornerstone of long-term performance: 17 new reserve varieties of the company began to be approved successively, including 1) celecoxib CDE approved in July 2020; 2) Tegrilol was approved by CDE in March 2021 and registered in South Korea in January 2022; 3) Rivaroxaban was approved by CDE in March 2022. In terms of new product registration, the company will follow up the overseas CEP registration of two products, ASMF registration of one product in Europe and South Korea registration of four products in 2022; China will submit four registrations. With the gradual expiration of 17 reserve pipeline patents, the company’s pipeline registration is in good condition, matching the growth of production capacity, resulting in high performance growth.
Accelerate the release of production capacity and quickly match the growth of orders: the phase 1 project of the second plant of the company’s convertible bond project has been carried out in an orderly manner. The trial production and stability verification of four workshops have started in the first half of 2022, and it is expected to be put into operation by the end of 2021 or the beginning of 2022. Due to the company’s full orders, the construction of seven workshops in phase 2 of plant 2 will begin in 2022. As the infrastructure of plant 2 has been completed and the construction of phase 2 project is faster, we expect to complete the construction by the end of 2023.
Profit forecast and investment rating: considering the impact of global shipping tension and the reduction of highway and port efficiency caused by China’s epidemic, we change the expected net profit attributable to the parent company from 151 / 261 million yuan to 131 / 250 million yuan in 20222023, and the expected net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024 is 329 million yuan. The current market value corresponds to the P / E valuation in 20222024, which is 33x / 17x / 13X respectively; Based on the rapid volume of new API products of the company and the fact that cdmo business will enter the outbreak period, the “buy” rating will be maintained.
Risk tip: environmental protection policy tightened; The cost transmission to the downstream is less than expected; The approval and volume of new products are lower than expected.
