\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 008 Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) )
Key investment points
22q1 retail growth is still resilient, and stores continue to expand
(1) self owned brand retail (including Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) , M & D and xiatu) has 22q1 revenue of 918 million (+ 20%), including 694 million offline (+ 16%) and 223 million online (+ 31%). The epidemic affected offline "321" marketing activities, especially in risk control areas, but the growth of the company's retail business is still resilient. It is expected that after the epidemic situation is controlled in May, the logistics will gradually recover, and the purchase demand suppressed in the early stage will be gradually released in the follow-up. The May Day promotion and June dream Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) promotion arranged by the company meet the demand recovery after the epidemic situation, and are optimistic about the follow-up performance.
(2) in terms of channel & category expansion, 94 stores were added in 22q1, 60 Pinlive Foods Co.Ltd(300892) to 3991 stores (including 1085 Ximian stores) and 598 MD sofas (+ 2 stores). Affected by the epidemic, the decoration progress of some stores of the company was delayed, and it is expected to open normally after relief. By category, mattress 746 million (+ 21%), soft bed + supporting 427 million (+ 16%), sofa 193 million (- 2%). The decline of sofa is mainly due to M & D as a high-end brand and mainly in the first tier cities with strict epidemic control, which has great pressure on consumer terminals. In 21 years, the company's mainstream customer unit price was about 14000. In 22 years, the sofa category will be added to the detailed sales of sets, and the target customer unit value will be increased to 1 Henan Zhongyuan Expressway Company Limited(600020) 000.
(3) the revenue of self owned brand project ( Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) ) 22q1 was 39 million (- 42%), which was due to the active contraction of hotel furniture decoration business, while the hotel bedding business maintained rapid growth.
(4) the revenue of agent processing business in 22q1 was 448 million (+ 8%). In 21 years, the company's agent processing business was affected by the price rise of raw materials and untimely price increase, and its profitability was weak (gross profit margin was only 9%). In 22 years, it took the improvement of profit margin as the focus of business.
The proportion of retail business increased, driving the gross profit margin and increasing the investment in advertising and marketing expenses
Due to the increase of gross profit margin of retail business (31.34% of Q1) year-on-year increase in gross profit margin; Although the oil price in Q1 market increased significantly, the internal procurement department of the company controlled the cost well through price locking of raw materials + goods hoarding, which did not affect the gross profit.
(2) expense rate: the sales expense rate of 22q1 was 19.93% (the reduction caliber increased by 1.75pct year-on-year), and the marketing investment was increased; The rate of management + R & D expenses is 9.21% (+ 1.56pct), which is mainly due to the increase of salary for the introduction of high-end talents, and the provision of equity incentive expenses is expected to be 3-4 million.
(3) cash flow: the net operating cash flow in 22q1 was - 551 million (compared with - 210 million in 20q1), of which the accounts payable was 2.035 billion (a decrease of 320 million compared with the beginning of the period). During the epidemic period, the company supported franchisees, relaxed the credit line for goods, and supported suppliers and accelerated the settlement of goods.
Profit forecast and valuation
The mattress industry has large capacity, fast growth and excellent pattern. The growth of Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) retail industry is excellent, its share has accelerated, and continues to be recommended. We expect the revenue of 22-24 years to be 9.733 billion (+ 25.23%), 12.238 billion (+ 25.73%), 15.312 billion (+ 25.12%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company to be 718 million (+ 28.52%), 938 million (+ 30.68%), 1.204 billion (+ 28.33%), corresponding to PE of 14.27x, 10.92x and 8.51x respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
The price of raw materials has risen sharply and the industry competition has intensified
