\u3000\u30 Chongqing Baiya Sanitary Products Co.Ltd(003006) 61 Sg Micro Corp(300661) )
Key investment points
The 21 year performance was in the median of the performance forecast, and the total profit of Q1 was + 22% month on month
1) fy21: the company achieved a revenue of 2.2 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 87%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 699 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 143%, which was above the performance forecast range; Deduct 649 million yuan from non parent company, with a year-on-year increase of + 145%, which is in the performance forecast range.
2) 21q4: the revenue was 703 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 111%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 248 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 204% and a month on month increase of + 30%; Deduct 236 million yuan of non return to parent, with a year-on-year increase of + 292% and a month on month increase of + 27%.
3) 22q1: 22q1: revenue of 775 million yuan, up + 97% year on year and + 10% month on month. The gross profit margin was 61%, with a year-on-year increase of + 12.8pct and a month on month increase of + 3.5pct. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 260 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 245% and a month on month increase of + 5%; Deduct 247 million yuan of non return to parent, with a year-on-year increase of + 242% and a month on month increase of + 5%. Among them, the investment income (mainly the investment income of Yutai) of the joint venture company in the current period is 17.25 million yuan and that of 22q4 is 43.33 million yuan. Excluding this impact, the net profit attributable to the parent company is + 19% month on month. We believe that the continuous growth of revenue and the improvement of gross profit margin show the leading ability to cross the cycle.
Under the window period of “domestic substitution”, we are optimistic about the first mover advantage of potential leaders
1) “domestic substitution” provides a window period for entering the supply chain. As the leader of mainland simulation, Shengbang’s product layout is the most comprehensive and balanced. At the same time, its core personnel have many years of experience in Ti and other large overseas factories, and its R & D strength is the first echelon in China. It has the ability to continuously expand its product line and has the best opportunity to seize the window period:
2) in terms of product layout, mainland manufacturers are the most comprehensive. The proportion of CITIC signal chain / power chain in revenue in 21 years is 32% / 68% respectively, which is close to the market scale distribution at the industry level.
3) continue to launch new products, continue the strategic path of “expanding general products → forming pedigree → general solutions”, grow steadily, and benchmark Ti of large overseas manufacturers. From 2017 to 2020, the company launched 200300 new products every year, and more than 500 new products were added in 2021. By the end of 2021, there were more than 3800 total item numbers, of which about half were active item numbers, the top two in the mainland. The continuous growth of R & D personnel supports the expansion of item number. By the end of 2021, there were 602 R & D personnel, a year-on-year increase of + 59%.
4) gradually cut from medium and low-end products to medium and high-end products, in which the signal chain focuses on amplifier products, and the power chain expands from LDO, charger and LED driver chips to DCDC with larger market and higher technical difficulty. The gross profit margin of the company has increased year by year, from 40% in 2016 to 49% in 2020 (before the business cycle).
5) mobile phones fully cover brand customers such as hmov and ODMs such as Huaqin. Other consumer electronics customers include Konka and Skyworth, and the industrial end enters Haikang and Dahua. The latest expansion of several material numbers into the supply chain of internationally renowned customers may contribute hundreds of millions of revenue in the future.
Investment advice
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 22 to 24 years is RMB 1.01/13.7/1.77 billion. According to the closing price of April 22, 2022, PE is 66/49/38 times, maintaining the “buy” rating. (Note: the forecast data of 2022 / 2 / 6 for 22-23 years is RMB 920 million / 1.25 billion. According to the latest 22q1 profit data disclosed by the company, we believe that the growth rate of operating revenue and the level of gross profit margin are higher than what we expected at the beginning of the year. At the same time, 22q1 performance proves the leader’s ability to cross the cycle. Therefore, in the future downward cycle, the company’s performance is stronger than what we previously considered, so we increase the company’s performance).
Risk tips
Sino US trade friction intensified, and the shipment volume of major customers was lower than expected.
