\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 701 Org Technology Co.Ltd(002701) )
Key investment points
The cost of raw materials is suppressed, and the profit of the main business is under pressure in the short term
In terms of business segments: (1) metal packaging products and services: 21a revenue of 12.197 billion yuan (+ 17.95%), gross profit margin of 16.62% (- 5.39pct); 21h2 achieved revenue of 6.368 billion yuan (+ 24.23%), gross profit margin of 13.05% (- 9.79 PCT), and the profit performance was suppressed by the sharp rise of raw materials, energy costs and short-term power and production restrictions. Considering that metal packaging products and services account for nearly 90% of the total revenue, taking the company’s comprehensive gross profit margin as the reference of quarterly gross profit margin of metal packaging, the quarterly comprehensive gross profit margin of 21q1-q4 company is 20.08% / 17.99% / 15.42% / 9.81% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of -1.96% / – 3.51% / – 10.17% / – 3.90%, which continues to decline month on month; The price of raw material aluminum of 21q1-q4 two-piece cans was 16249 / 18565 / 20529 / 20033 yuan / ton respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 22.30% / 42.92% / 40.33% / 27.11%. Even if the price of two-piece cans was raised many times during the year, it was still difficult to fully cover the sharp rise of raw materials; The average price of tinsector as raw material of 21q1-q4 three piece cans was 7380 / 8874 / 9014 / 8647 yuan / ton respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 18.54% / 53.96% / 51.26% / 37.37%. In terms of split categories, the annual revenue of three piece cans was about 6.3 billion yuan, an increase of about 15% at the same time. The annual gross profit margin decreased year-on-year due to the rise of raw materials and changes in product structure, of which red bull’s revenue was 4.96 billion yuan (+ 2.18%), accounting for 35.72% of the total revenue (- 10.24pct); The revenue of two-piece cans was about 5.7 billion yuan, an increase of about 45% at the same time, benefiting from the improvement of unit price & capacity utilization, the revenue growth rate was bright, the profit was realized smoothly throughout the year, and the gross profit margin was about the number of units. In the second half of the year, the pressure on raw materials appeared, the marginal reduction of export volume, and the profitability decreased month on month. (2) Filling: the income of 21a is 186 million yuan (+ 13.54%), of which the income of 21h2 is 84 million yuan (- 23.34%); The annual sales volume increased by 35.51% to 102 million cans, the capacity utilization rate increased significantly, and the corresponding gross profit margin continued to improve year-on-year. (3) Other businesses: 21a’s revenue was 1.502 billion yuan (+ 43.75%), and 21h2’s revenue was 884 million yuan (+ 29.57%). During the period, the sales of raw materials & Yilagai and sports business improved significantly year-on-year.
The improved pattern promotes the improvement of bargaining power and waits for the improvement of profitability
The multiple integration of the two-piece can industry and the steady improvement of beer canning rate have promoted the continuous improvement of the supply and demand pattern of the two-piece can industry. The unit price of the two-piece can has continued to run at a fast pace ( Org Technology Co.Ltd(002701) 18 years, the price has been increased by 2 points / can year by year, and the price has been increased three times under the sharp rise of raw materials in 21 years). The bargaining power of packaging enterprises has continued to rise; Since 22 years ago, the price of raw materials has remained high (22q1 aluminum price + 36.56% year-on-year and + 10.77% month on month), the industry demand is strong, and Org Technology Co.Ltd(002701) successfully achieved a small price increase in 22q1. The company may launch a second price negotiation in 22q2 to transmit the cost pressure and wait for profit improvement. In terms of the three piece tank business, the company also has a small price increase measure. Considering that the company has signed a long-term agreement with raw material suppliers, the raw material pressure is generally controllable.
Cut into the 2C consumption field and upgrade the “packaging +” strategy
Rooted in the advantages of the main packaging industry, the company cut into the 2C consumption field during the period and launched its own brand products “yuanyangwuyu” series of functional drinks, “Xiwang” sports nutrition drinks and prefabricated vegetable products, highlighting the strength of industrial chain integration; On the other hand, it is expected to deepen the strategic stickiness of China Resources Group and China Resources Capital during the period. On the whole, based on the main business of packaging, the company has continuously arranged and extended the industrial chain, opened up the whole packaging industrial chain of product R & D, design, can making and filling, and cut into C-end consumption on the basis of this ability. The prototype of “packaging +” strategy has been realized and looks forward to its future performance.
Q4 raw materials and other factors suppressed, and profitability declined
(1) considering the change of accounting standards and the calculation of gross sales difference, the gross sales difference of 21a is 14.37% (-4.72pct) and 21q4 is 8.53% (-8.09pct), which is mainly due to the sharp rise of raw materials during the period; Corresponding to 21a net interest rate of 6.46% (-0.94pct), 21q4 net interest rate of 2.07% (-6.31pct). (2) The net operating cash flow of 21a was 1.183 billion yuan (a year-on-year increase of 459 million yuan), and that of 21q4 was 88 million yuan (a year-on-year decrease of 532 million yuan).
(3) at the end of the year, the inventory was 2.162 billion yuan (+ 32.93%), and the inventory turnover rate was 6.72 times (a year-on-year decrease of 0.21 days); In 21 years, the accounts receivable were 2.96 billion (+ 11.89%), and the turnover days of accounts receivable were 71.19 days (a year-on-year decrease of 15.81 days).
Profit forecast and valuation
The company’s leading position in metal packaging is stable, and the “packaging +” strategy is advancing steadily. We expect the company to realize revenue of RMB 15.057/16.156/16.825 billion from 2022 to 2024, with a same increase of 8.44% / 7.30% / 4.14%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 889 / 1018 / 1109 million, with a year-on-year increase of -1.77% / + 14.51% / + 9.00%, and the corresponding PE was 14.33x/12.51x/11.48x respectively, maintaining the buy rating.
Risk tips
Raw materials rose sharply, the price rise was less than expected, and the epidemic situation was repeated
