\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 262 Jiangsu Nhwa Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002262) )
Jiangsu Nhwa Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002262) released the first quarter report of 2022. In 2022, Q1 achieved an operating revenue of 992 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.79%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 189million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.45%; The non net profit deducted was 190 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.69%; EPS 0.19 yuan. The company forecasts the operation from January to June. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in the first half of the year is 431 million yuan - 514 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5-25%, that is, the net profit attributable to the parent company of Q2 is 240 million yuan - 325 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 0% - 34% in a single quarter.
Viewpoint: the overall revenue and profit of the company increased steadily, which met the expectation after considering the impact of centralized mining, and slightly exceeded the expectation after considering the strong investment in R & D. The company's overall revenue increased by nearly 10%. Last year, the company's Q1 base was relatively high. The company achieved steady growth in the case of multiple outbreaks of Q1 epidemic, which is in line with expectations. We speculate that the growth rate of anesthesia line is fast (midazolam and etomidate are still growing, and new products are starting to pull), and the mental line and nerve line are affected by the epidemic, which is consistent with the trend of the annual report of 21 years.
Financial indicators: the company's financial indicators are stable, R & D investment is increased, and other expenses are well controlled. In terms of gross profit margin, the gross profit margin of Q1 company in 2022 was 75.34%, down 2.56pp from 77.90% in Q1 last year. We think it is mainly due to the impact of centralized mining. The company's sales expense ratio was 39.19%, down 3.76pp from 42.95% in the same period last year, and the sales expense was well controlled. The management expense rate of the company was 4.02%, a decrease of 0.35pp compared with 4.37% in the same period last year, and the management expense was well managed. The proportion of R & D revenue increased from 7.47% in Q1 last year to 10.15% this year, exceeding 10% of revenue. R & D expenditure increased by 49% year-on-year, reflecting the company's emphasis on R & D. Looking forward to 2022, the company has a lot to see. 1. We expect that the revenue side of the company is expected to achieve double-digit growth. Among them, we expect the growth of anesthesia line to be about 25-30%, which is mainly driven by the large volume of new products such as penehyclidine, sufentanil, oxycodone and alfentanil. The old varieties midazolam and etomidate still have a steady growth of more than 15%; It is expected that the spiritual line will decline under the influence of duloxetine and aripiprazole intensive mining, but the decline range is narrower than last year; Nerve line expects that the price reduction of gabapentin centralized mining will still have an impact, but the decline will also be narrower compared with last year's annual report. We expect that the profit side of the company will grow faster than the revenue side: the gross profit margin of new products will increase, and the sales expense rate of varieties entering centralized purchase will continue to decline. 2. According to the application progress, we infer that the company's R & D is expected to continue to reap: from 2020 to 2021, it was approved of penehyclidine, sufentanil, oxycodone, alfentanil, midazolam oral liquid, duloxetine enteric coated capsule, etc. Subsequently, dizocine, etomidate emulsion injection and other varieties have been declared, and the innovative drug trv130 is also expected to be approved in 2022. The current valuation of the company has been adjusted to 13X this year. The valuation of 13X reflects the overly pessimistic expectations of the market, while the approval and future growth of the company's regulated products are not reflected in the valuation. With the approval of subsequent varieties, the company is expected to enter a new round of growth.
Profit forecast and valuation. We estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 920 million yuan, 1.12 billion yuan and 1.36 billion yuan respectively, with an increase of 15.1%, 22.4% and 20.7% respectively. EPS is 0.91 yuan, 1.12 yuan and 1.35 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE is 13X, 10x and 9x respectively. We are optimistic about the long-term development of the company and maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: the progress of product approval is lower than expected; Failure risk of innovative drug research and development;
