\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 779 Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) )
Event:
The company released the 2021 annual report and the first quarter report of 2022, and achieved an operating revenue of 4.632 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 54.10%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.199 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 63.96%; Deduct non net profit of RMB 1.216 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 67.51%; EPS 2.45 yuan / share; It is proposed to pay 7.50 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares. In the first quarter of 2022, the operating revenue was 1.415 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.10%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 363 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.54%; Deduction of non net profit was 357 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.19%.
Key investment points:
2021 insists on promoting high-end and steadily improves profitability. (1) in 2021, the company realized the revenue of Baijiu business 4 billion 621 million yuan (same +53.8%), and the volume price increased by 40%/10%, and sales volume increased by a low base in 2020. In terms of products, the revenue of high-end wine reached 4.519 billion yuan (the same as + 54%), and the revenue of high-end core products collection (version 2021), collection (ice and snow), collection (Sanxingdui) and jingcui increased by about 58% year-on-year, of which the collection series increased by about 60% year-on-year; The revenue of zhenniang 8, well platform and well platform (ice and snow) increased by about 55% year-on-year. The revenue of mid-range liquor reached 102 million yuan (the same as + 34%), and the sales volume increased by 39% year-on-year. In terms of sub regions, six of the company's eight core markets continued to maintain high speed in 2021 (Henan and Hunan were affected by floods). The revenue of the eight markets increased by 61% year-on-year and that of other markets increased by 44% year-on-year. (2) In 2021, the company's product structure continued to improve, driving the gross profit margin from + 0.33pct to 84.5%; Due to the continued promotion of high-end products during the year, the sales and management expenses were still at a high level, but benefited from the high increase in income, the sales / management expense ratio after the expenses were amortized was -1.49pct/-2.33pct year-on-year respectively; The net interest rate of the company affected by the combination is the same as + 1.56pct to 25.89%. (3) In Q4 of 2021, the company achieved revenue / profit of 1.209200 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year performance of + 14.05% / - 13.43% respectively. The performance is slightly lower than expected. The profit in the fourth quarter is negative. It is expected that the company will promote the high-end products and increase the cost investment.
2022q1 is under pressure due to the short-term impact of the epidemic. In 2022, Q1 company achieved a revenue of 1.415 billion yuan (a year-on-year increase of 14.10%); The net profit attributable to the parent company was 363 million yuan (a year-on-year decrease of 13.54%), and the performance in the first quarter was slightly lower than expected. The price of Baijiu increased by 11.5%/1.4% in the first quarter. Among them, the revenue of high-end liquor was 1.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.15%. In the first quarter, the company continued its high-end strategy and increased the cultivation of channels and consumers. The cost investment remained at a high level, and the sales cost rate was the same as + 7.34pct; At the same time, the company's performance in the first quarter was under pressure, mainly affected by the disturbance of the epidemic. After the festival, the company's inventory increased and is still at a reasonable level. It is expected to improve gradually with the epidemic control in place.
Profit forecast and investment rating: the company's performance target in 2022 is stable, and the revenue / net profit plan increases by about 15% / 15% at the same time. In the long run, we believe that the secondary high-end is still the fastest-growing price band in the industry. The company's product structure, brand and channel marketing strategy are accurate, and will continue to enjoy the secondary high-end capacity expansion bonus in the future. The implementation of the incentive plan is expected to fully stimulate the vitality of the management, and the completion of the company's assessment objectives is high. It is estimated that the company's EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 2.84/3.47/4.18 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 28 / 23 / 19 times respectively, giving a "overweight" rating.
Risk tips: 1) repeated outbreaks lead to consumption inhibition; 2) Increased market competition leads to increased costs; 3) the sharp fluctuation of the economy caused the price of Baijiu to slide; 4) The pace of product upgrading is less than expected; 5) Food safety risks. In case of any difference between the relevant data and information and the contents published by the company, the contents published by the company shall prevail.
