\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 276 Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) )
Event:
The company released the annual report and the first quarterly report. In 2021, the company realized a revenue of 25.906 billion (year-on-year - 6.59%) and a net profit of 4.201 billion (year-on-year - 29.53%). In 2022, Q1 achieved a revenue of 5.479 billion (year-on-year - 20.93%), and a net profit of 1.180 billion (year-on-year - 19.80%), slightly lower than expected.
Comments:
New drug price reduction, centralized purchase and increased R & D investment reduced performance
The performance of the current period is under pressure. First, the R & D is increased. In 2021, the R & D cost is 5.9 billion (year-on-year + 19%), which affects the current profit. Second, the impact of centralized purchase. A total of 28 varieties of the company entered the scope of centralized purchase, and the prices of the 18 varieties selected fell by 73% on average. The revenue of the six drugs collected in the third batch fell by 55% in 2021, and the contrast agents that were not selected had a great impact; Third, the negotiation price of new drugs fell sharply, with the price of PD-1 falling by 85% and that of esmketamine falling by 68%. The rise in commodity prices has driven up costs. In this period, the company has increased single person output, reduced costs and increased efficiency by streamlining the sales team of generic drugs (reducing about 4000 people).
A-share innovation leading enterprise, full of stamina
Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) independent innovative new drugs have reached 10. In 2021, three varieties of haitripopa, hengglijing and darcili will be added. At present, there are more than 250 clinical projects in Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) total, including nearly 20 international multi center clinical projects, of which 7 have entered phase III clinical practice. In breast cancer, new indications of pyrrolidone and fluazolam are expanded, and the JAK1 inhibitors, SHR3680 of prostate cancer and TSLP McAbs of asthma are of great potential. In the sea project, the international multi center phase III clinic of carrelizhu + apatinib has submitted the listing application in China, and is expected to submit the new drug application to FDA within this year. Abundant pipelines and full stamina.
Maintain the "overweight" rating
The company's 4 billion profit and nearly 6 billion R & D investment, strong hematopoietic capacity, so that it does not need to worry about the shortage of cash like biotech. The cost of 6 billion yuan is second only to Baiji Shenzhou, which is optimistic about the long-term development of the company. Considering centralized purchase and negotiated price reduction, we expect the revenue of 22-23 years to be 27.038/31.176 billion (original value: 36.319/43.773 billion), and the net profit attributable to the parent company to be 4.710/5.411 billion yuan (original value: 7.643/9.384 billion), respectively. At the same time, we increase the 24-year profit forecast revenue to be 34.685 billion yuan, the net profit to be 6.081 billion yuan, and the corresponding PE to be 45 / 39 / 35 times respectively. Maintain the "overweight" rating.
Risk tips
Centralized purchase exceeds expectations; Overseas clinical / sales are less than expected; China's innovative drug prices exceed expectations
