\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 888 China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) )
The performance in 21 years was in line with the expectation, and the performance in Q1 was greatly affected by the epidemic: the company achieved a revenue of 67.676 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 28.67%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 9.654 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 57.23%, which was in line with the expectation of the express report. Among them, Q4 revenue was 18.177 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.11%, and the net profit attributable to the parent was 1.163 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 60.93%. In Q1 of 22 years, the revenue was 16.782 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.45%, the operating profit was 3.502 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.42%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.563 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.99%. Among them, the revenue in March was about 3.682 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of about 48.98%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was about 163 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of about 80.8%.
The overall gross profit margin in 21 years was 33.68%, with a year-on-year decrease of 6.96 PCT. In terms of three expenses, the sales expense rate was 5.71%, a year-on-year decrease of 11.11pct; The management fee rate was 3.32%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.21pct; The financial expense ratio increased 1PCT year-on-year, mainly due to the increase of interest expenses. In the fourth quarter alone, the gross profit margin was 26.44%, a year-on-year decrease of 13.43pct; In terms of expenses, the sales expense rate was 9.90%, from negative to positive year-on-year; The management fee rate was 5.36%, with a year-on-year increase of 1.02pct; The financial expense ratio increased by 1.32pct year-on-year, mainly due to the increase of interest expenses. The gross profit margin of Q1 in 22 years was 34%, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.11pct and a month on month increase of 7.56pct. Under the background of the epidemic, the profitability was significantly improved month on month. In terms of three expenses, the sales expense rate was 8.71%, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.06 PCT; The management fee rate was 2.57%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.19 PCT; The financial expense ratio decreased by 0.48pct year-on-year, mainly due to the increase of interest income.
Each business line maintained a high growth rate, and outlying island duty-free remained the main source of performance: from the perspective of products, the sales of duty-free goods in the year 21 achieved a revenue of 42.936 billion yuan, an increase of 32.67% year-on-year, mainly benefiting from the effective prevention and control of the epidemic in China, the recovery of offline tourism consumption was obvious, and the company’s offline sales in Hainan increased significantly year-on-year, with a gross profit margin of 37.82%, a decrease of 7.08 PCT year-on-year; The sales of taxable goods achieved a revenue of 24.006 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.81%, and the gross profit margin was 24.59%, a year-on-year decrease of 7.06 PCT.
In terms of regions, Hainan achieved a revenue of 47.096 billion yuan in 21 years, an increase of 57.19% year-on-year. The main reason is that the company fully grasped the policy opportunity of the implementation of the new policy of tax exemption for Hainan outlying islands, deeply cultivated the outlying island tax-free market, continued to promote Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) all-channel sales business, and achieved a significant growth in the off Island tax-free business in Hainan; The revenue in Shanghai was 12.491 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.02%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 690 million yuan. On the last day, China (Beijing area) achieved a revenue of 1.907 billion yuan / – 40.45%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 705 million yuan.
The duration of the epidemic in some areas exceeded expectations, and the company’s long-term layout continued to increase: affected by the epidemic that began in March, the recovery of short-term performance still needs to wait for the epidemic to be cleared, but the short-term impact does not hinder the improvement of long-term competitiveness. Haikou international duty-free city continued to increase investment in new projects. Since the construction of the project, by the end of 2021, a total investment of 2.375 billion yuan has been invested. The roof steel structure project has been completed and is expected to be put into use in the third quarter; Sanya phase I land 2 project has achieved the capping of the main steel structure; The first phase of Hainan International Logistics Center has been put into use. Online business is also vigorously promoted, and the proportion of member sales has increased from 52% to 87%. In the future, the national policy of guiding consumption return will remain unchanged, and the short-term performance will have a great impact on the valuation. The valuation has reached a historically low range, and the long-term allocation value is prominent.
Profit forecast and rating: considering the impact of the epidemic, we lowered the EPS 11% / 6% from 22 to 23 to 5.05/6.72 yuan respectively, increased the EPS forecast for 2024 to 9.72 yuan, and maintained the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: under the influence of the epidemic, the purchasing power of residents decreased and the promotion of new projects was less than expected.
