\u3000\u30 Zhongyan Technology Co.Ltd(003001) 44 Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) )
Core view
In 2021, the performance turned from loss to profit, which is within the performance forecast range. In 2021, the company’s revenue was 1.185 billion yuan / + 31.27%, and the parent company’s performance / deduction of non performance was 315 / 268 million yuan, with a year-on-year turnaround of losses and eps0.5% 12 yuan, within the performance forecast range. Excluding the influence of flower houses, the performance in 2021 will increase by 70% year-on-year. Compared with 2019, the revenue recovered by about 45%, and the performance and deduction of non performance recovered by about 20%. 0.5 yuan for every 10 shares.
The recovery trend is high before and low after. In 2021h1, the recovery of the company gradually accelerated, of which the Q2 revenue recovered 72% and the performance recovered 60-70%; However, the recovery of the epidemic situation in the second half of the year was significantly blocked, with Q3 revenue recovering about 36% and performance recovering only 10%; In Q4, the off-season revenue recovered by about 42%, resulting in losses due to the closure of some projects and impairment losses.
Mature projects + light assets + flower house income to build profit support. The revenue of Hangzhou is about 6.64 billion yuan, with a recovery of about 6.61% in 2024; Sanya’s revenue is 148million yuan / +16.41%, with a recovery of about 38%; Lijiang’s revenue is 116 million yuan / – 14.85%, recovering about 35%, Guilin’s revenue is 91 million yuan / + 61.07%, recovering about 57%, and the comprehensive contribution profit is estimated to be 160 million +. The newly opened Shanghai project revenue is 74 million yuan (May Day revenue is 25 million +). However, under the epidemic situation, the company’s projects in each incubation period are estimated to be at a loss. In 2021, the income of young assets is 102 million yuan, the net interest rate is high, and the investment income of flower houses is 100 million +, both of which are also important earnings components of the company. In 2022q1, the epidemic disturbed the rhythm of garden restoration, and the company recorded a performance loss. In 2022q1, the revenue was 85 million yuan / – 72.16%, only about 10% recovered (while in 20q1 and 21q1, about 16% and 37% recovered respectively); The loss of parent performance / deduction of non performance was 39 / 40 million yuan respectively, mainly due to the impact of the epidemic.
The short-term epidemic situation is still suppressed. The company actively carries light equipment and responds to challenges through diversified optimization. Under the epidemic situation, the company responded positively. First, the Australian and Zhuhai projects are planned to be transferred and undertaken by the controlling shareholders. Among them, the Zhuhai project will still be operated by the listed company after its opening in the future, and the listed company will charge relevant management fees and enjoy the priority of injection in the future; Second, explore the cooperative development and operation mode of diversified projects, among which the asset light cooperation mode is expected to be more flexible to deal with the uncertainty under the epidemic situation; Third, build a platform enterprise and optimize management; Fourth, actively explore the performance cluster. Hangzhou projects are rich in outdoor and live performances, while Shanghai projects are rich in new ones, which will be unveiled at the right time. Moreover, if the epidemic situation stabilizes and recovers in the future, the company’s restorative growth can still be expected, and the combination of light and heavy expansion and the exploration of performing arts clusters will still help its growth.
Risk warning: the epidemic situation is repeated, and the expansion of new projects is lower than expected; Goodwill impairment risk; Risk of shareholder reduction.
Investment suggestion: the epidemic situation is under pressure, but the company takes the initiative to deal with it lightly and maintains buying. Reduce the company’s EPS from 22-24 years to 0.15/0.49/0.66 yuan (eps0.43/0.61 yuan in the previous 22-23 years, mainly considering the repeated epidemic this year and reducing the recovery assumption of various projects), corresponding to PE94 / 28 / 21x. The short-term epidemic situation is still suppressed, but the company actively responded. Zhuhai and Australia projects are planned to be transferred to major shareholders to deal with the uncertainty under the epidemic situation. They are going to fight for development with light equipment, optimize internal management, combine the severity of external expansion, bring highlights to the future industry recovery + diversified expansion, and maintain the “buy” rating
