\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 383 Gemdale Corporation(600383) )
Matters:
The company released its annual report for 2021, realizing a total operating revenue of 99.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.2%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 9.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.5%, realizing EPS 2.5% 08 yuan, which is basically consistent with the performance express. The company plans to pay a cash dividend of 6.3 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares.
Ping An View:
The performance is relatively stable and the outstanding resources are sufficient: in 2021, the company achieved a total operating revenue of 99.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.2%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 9.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.5%. The profit growth rate was lower than the revenue mainly due to: 1) the gross profit margin decreased by 11.7 percentage points to 21.2% year-on-year; 2) Asset impairment losses increased by 570 million yuan to 1.21 billion yuan year-on-year; 3) Due to the upward impact of financial, sales and other expense rates, the expense rate during the period increased by 2.2 percentage points year-on-year to 9.3%. Contract liabilities at the end of the period increased by 19.1% year-on-year to 112.54 billion yuan, 1.13 times the revenue of the past year, and the outstanding resources are still relatively sufficient.
Sales increased against the trend and achieved remarkable results in deep cultivation: the company’s sales amount in 2021 was 286.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.1%, exceeding the target (280 billion yuan), and the growth rate was in the forefront of the top 20 real estate enterprises. The sales area was 13.77 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 15.2%. The average sales price was 20821 yuan / m2, up 2.5% year-on-year. Under the guidance of the strategy of urban deep ploughing, the market share of the city where the company is located has been further steadily improved. The market share of more than ten cities in China ranks among the top ten, among which Shanghai, Jinhua, Hohhot, Xuzhou and Kunshan rank first. During the period, the newly started area was 18.43 million square meters and the completed area was 15.34 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 16% and 39%, both exceeding the target (16.81 million square meters and 14.5 million square meters). In 2022, it is planned to start a new construction of 6.34 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 66%, and it is planned to complete 15.36 million square meters, a year-on-year slight increase of 0.1%. At the same time, the business plan will be adjusted in the middle of the year by integrating the newly acquired projects and the external environment.
The intensity of land acquisition decreased slightly, and the layout was more focused: the company added 16.36 million square meters of construction surface in 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 1.3%, and the total land price was 130.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3%. The sales area ratio and sales amount ratio of land acquisition were 118.8% and 45.7% respectively, 19.9 and 10 percentage points lower than that in 2020. The average floor price was 8001 yuan / square meter, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%, and the ratio of land price to house price was 38.4%, 1.7 percentage points lower than that in 2020. Among them, the investment in the first and second tier cities accounted for 65%, the investment in the first tier cities with better market liquidity and higher security increased to 34%, and the investment layout was more focused. At the end of the period, it entered 78 cities across the country, with a total land storage of 63.98 million square meters and an equity land storage of 29.23 million square meters.
The financing advantage continued, and the three red lines remained “green”: the weighted average cost of debt financing of the company at the end of the period was 4.56%, a year-on-year decrease of 18bp; The net debt ratio, asset liability ratio excluding advance collection and cash short debt ratio were 55.2%, 67.6% and 1.4 times respectively, and the three red lines continued to be “green”.
Investment suggestion: maintain the previous forecast and add the expectation for 2024. It is estimated that the EPS of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be 2.21 yuan, 2.32 yuan and 2.40 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price will be 6.2 times, 5.9 times and 5.7 times respectively. The company’s sales growth rate is ahead, and the completion carry forward has support; With sound finance and outstanding comprehensive advantages, it is expected to go through the cycle, promote the steady rise of market share and maintain the “recommended” rating.
Risk tips: 1) the policy care is not as strong as expected, and the adjustment time and range of the real estate market are extended, resulting in the risk of damage to the company’s operation; 3) The continued pressure on the property market to decontaminate has led to further decline in sales prices, impairment at high prices in the early stage and continuous downward risk in profit margins; 3) The proportion of equity in the company’s land reserve is relatively low, and the company will face the risk of diluting the net profit attributable to the parent due to the increase of the proportion of minority shareholders’ profits and losses in the future.
