\u3000\u30 Xuchang Ketop Testing Research Institute Co.Ltd(003008) 61 Yangling Metron New Material Co.Ltd(300861) )
Matters:
The company released its 2021 annual report, with a revenue of 1.848 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 53.29%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 763 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 69.72%, and a net profit of 683 million yuan after deduction, a year-on-year increase of 66.39%. In 2021q4, the revenue was 576 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 72.58%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 212 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 69.69%. It is proposed to distribute a cash dividend of 10.00 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares and increase 2 shares for every 10 shares to all shareholders with capital reserve.
Ping An View:
The performance was in line with expectations, and the significant increase in the shipment of diamond line promoted the high growth of performance. In 2021, the company achieved 45.408 million km of diamond wire sales, with a year-on-year increase of 82.8%, of which the sales of Q1 / Q2 / Q3 / Q4 were 857.2/1131.2/1097.314551000 km respectively, which promoted the significant growth of the company's revenue scale. The substantial growth of the company's diamond line shipments in 2021 benefited from the rapid growth of the new installed capacity of photovoltaic on the one hand, and also benefited from the company's effective market development. While continuing to maintain good cooperation with traditional customers such as Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Jingke energy, Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) , poly GCL and actively explore new silicon wafer customers such as Gaojing Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) , Beijing Jingyuntong Technology Co.Ltd(601908) , Wuxi Shangji Automation Co.Ltd(603185) , In 2021, Gaojing Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) Xinjin company was the fifth largest customer. In 2021, the gross profit margin of the company's diamond line business was 57.26%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.46 percentage points, reflecting a slight intensification of industry competition.
Continue to promote cost reduction and strengthen the competitiveness of the cost side. In 2021, the average sales price of the company's diamond line was 40.17 yuan / km, a year-on-year decrease of 15.7%; The average production cost was 17.17 yuan / km, with a year-on-year decrease of about 12.7%. In 2021, the company improved the efficiency of the production line, and the production efficiency of a single production line increased by 50%, which diluted the costs of direct labor, depreciation, energy and power expenditure. In addition to the improvement of production process, the company has made greater efforts to extend upstream raw materials to reduce production costs. It has successively invested special funds in R & D at the two raw material ends of cutting wire substrate and diamond micro powder. It is planned to invest about 159 million yuan to build a 6000 ton diamond cutting wire substrate (yellow wire) project, and use its own funds to invest abroad to establish Shaanxi Meichang diamond material technology Co., Ltd.
The fine line ability is outstanding, which is expected to build differentiated competitiveness. The company's R & D team continued to innovate around the demand for thin-film and large-scale photovoltaic chips, and increased the product line diameter from 45 μ M is refined to 38 After several iterations μ m. At the leading level in the industry; At the same time of the development of thin line, innovate the application of "flexible cutting" and "structural wire cutting" technology to optimize the cutting effect. Since 2022, the process of p-type monocrystalline silicon wafer slicing has accelerated, and n-type battery modules have gradually sprung up. In the future, n-type silicon wafer is expected to be further sliced, which puts forward higher requirements for the fine line of diamond wire. Relying on the forward-looking layout and accumulation in the fine line, the company is expected to form a differentiated competitive advantage.
Investment advice. Considering the market demand and competition pattern, the profit forecast is slightly adjusted. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 963 (original value: 953), 1153 (original value: 1178) and 1407 (New) million yuan respectively, and the corresponding EPS will be 241, 288 and 352 yuan respectively, with a dynamic pe2.5 billion yuan 3. 21.1, 17.3 times. The photovoltaic industry is booming. The company has outstanding competitive advantages in the field of diamond wire and maintains the "recommended" rating of the company.
Risk warning. 1) The demand of photovoltaic industry is affected by many factors such as green policy, macro-economy, industrial competition and covid-19 epidemic. There is a risk that the market demand for new photovoltaic installation and diamond line is less than expected. 2) The competition pattern of silicon wafer downstream of diamond line changes rapidly. If the company cannot adapt to this trend and effectively expand emerging silicon wafer customers, it may affect the market share. 3) Intensified industry competition or rising raw material prices may cause the company's profitability to be lower than expected.
