\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 385 Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) )
The feed business accelerated endogenous extension, the seed business welcomed the revitalization of the seed industry and maintained the "buy" rating
Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) released the annual report of 2021: the company achieved annual revenue of RMB 31.328 billion (+ 37.32%) and net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB - 440 million (- 122.52%). During the reporting period, affected by the continuous decline of pig prices, the persistence of African swine fever and other epidemics, and the company's provision for asset impairment of pigs on hand, the company's pig business losses dragged down the overall performance. We slightly lowered the performance forecast of the company from 2022 to 2023 and added the performance forecast for 2024. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 325 / 2276 / 2354 million (the predicted value before 20222023 is RMB 340 / 2387 million), the corresponding EPS will be RMB 0.08/0.55/0.57 respectively, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price is 98.2/14.0/13.5 times. Maintain high sales volume of feed in the company; The company's seed business is expected to benefit from the commercialization of GM by the end of 2022 and maintain the "buy" rating.
The company's feed business has endogenous extension and pig breeding business
In terms of feed business, in 2021, the company's feed business revenue was 22.695 billion yuan (+ 36.83%), and the main business revenue accounted for 72.44%; The annual feed export volume of the company was 5.2388 million tons (+25.58%). Since the beginning of 2022, the company has successively acquired Hunan Jiuding technology and Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) 8 feed subsidiaries. The extension merger and acquisition will help the company increase the feed sales by more than 3.8 million tons in 2022, and the company's feed business scale and competitive advantage in Southwest China will be significantly enhanced. In terms of pig breeding business, in 2021, the revenue of pig breeding business was 4.699 billion yuan (+ 23.61%), and the main business income accounted for 15.00%; The number of live pigs sold by the company's holding subsidiary was 2511500 (+ 129.04%), with a total of more than 4.3 million pigs sold on the equity participation platform. The main goal of the company's pig breeding business in 2022 is to reduce the breeding cost. The goal is to achieve a complete cost of 16 yuan / kg of pigs in the second half of 2022, and the slaughter volume is mainly stable. It is expected that the drag on the performance of the breeding business in the whole year will be significantly weakened.
The company actively grasps the tuyere of "seed industry revitalization", and the commercialization of GM is about to be released
The new seed law has been officially implemented on March 1, 2022. The company expects that 2022 will be the first year of commercialization of genetically modified maize and soybean in China. At present, the company has cooperated with more than 130 maize seed enterprises. It is expected that with the release of China's genetically modified industrialization, the income scale of the company's seed business will increase significantly. In 2021, the company's seed business revenue was 561 million yuan (+ 37.49%), and the corn seed revenue was 229 million yuan (+ 75.25%), with a bright growth rate.
Risk tip: the decline range of feed raw material price, the length of loss cycle of pig breeding industry, etc.
